Member Info for tacly

In previous other consolidations (National Grid, Ryanair and Tesco) the price is pretty much the same pre and post consolidation.

However, if you have bough Aviva for dividend income you are going to be better off provided the share price doesn't drop.

Let say you have 100 shares, the total dividend for FY21 will be 2205p. For FY22, the company said it will be 31.5p per share (Annual Report page1.04), thus 75 shares x 31.5p = 2362.5p and you got £100 back as well to keep or invest elsewhere.

I think the price is likely to go up post consolidation simply because EPS and DPS are going to be higher.

See https://ir.genetronhealth.com/news-releases/news-release-details/genetron-health-announces-companion-diagnostic-collaboration . We probably see a RNS from Hutchmed soon. Good for the patients. Hopefully jam tomorrow for investors too :-)

Good time to top up some more.

25.2% invested in Sarepta Therapeutics Inc; 9.6% in Collector AB and 7.9% in Epizyme Inc. 3 investment taking up 42.7%. Is that not too high a risk?

The report didn’t give a timescale so I assume it is 1 yr.

This share is very illiquid. I looked at the trading volume (as a percentage of market cap) for 05/01/2022 and they are very low: HK 0.11%, Nasdaq 0.15%, London 0.0057%. So a few more sales than buys caused a massive drop yesterday!

According to Hutchmed’s website, the major share holders and management hold about 71.06% of the shares. They don’t seem to trade much apart from JPMorgan – see https://di.hkex.com.hk/di/NSNoticeSSList.aspx?sa2=ns&sid=344192&corpn=HUTCHMED+(China)+Ltd.&sd=06/01/2019&ed=06/01/2022&cid=0&sa1=cl&scsd=06%2f01%2f2019&sced=06%2f01%2f2022&sc=00013&src=MAIN&lang=EN&g_lang=en&
Currently, the company does not seem to have a plan to address or seem to care about this illiquid problem.

BTW, according to this doc https://www.hutch-med.com/200707-tr-1/ , GA’s warrants expired on January 3, 2022.

Analyst report in Chinese only - see https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202201051538618452_1.pdf

Gist of the report:
- Advantages: R&D and listing of innovative drugs, and gradually commercialisation.
- Disadvantages: Poor cash flow performance, excessive reliance on third-party investment.
- Opportunity: Future global targeted therapy and immunotherapy.
- Challenge: Balancing R&D expenditures to achieve breakeven.
- Investment Advice: Rated as “outperform”; target price HK$80; breakeven in 2023; accelerate growth from 2024; long-term holding recommended.

Thanks Jatw for the summary and I am looking forward to Hutchmed achieving its true valuation in 2022 and beyond.

CLSA just released a research report giving Hutchmed a target price of 71.8 HKD / £6.94 - See translated webpage (CLSA got translated as Lyon) - https://view-inews-qq-com.translate.goog/a/20211221A0835100?_x_tr_sl=zh-CN&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB and http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/analysis/stock-aafn-con/00013/NOW.1151037/all

Drip feeding into this ETF averaging 3959p so far. Great list of companies : Ganfeng Lithium, Nel ASA hydrogen, Solaredge, ... etc.. Should work out in a few years' time.

https://www.wisdomtree.eu/en-gb/-/media/eu-media-files/other-documents/investment-case/volt_investment_case_english_lse_feb_20.pdf

Very sound investment case for this thematic tracker. I think it may have been overbought recently. I am waiting for it to drop to a suitable entry price!

News about HMPL-653 capsule has just obtained the implied license for clinical trials caused the increase in HK share price. I don't know why the company haven't release a RNS. Here is a google translated version of a news reporting in HK/China https://baijiahao-baidu-com.translate.goog/s?id=1717111799798197147&wfr=spider&for=pc&_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=nui

Updated analyst report from CMB International (China Merchants Bank International) https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202109301519524072_1.pdf but with the same target price of HK$77.74 / £7.24 as previously issued.

CICC (China International Capital Corporation) target price for Hutchmed HKD$80.21 / £7.55 - see http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/aafn-con/now.1131917/latest-news . Unfortunately I can't see the analyst report from CICC because apparently you need a HK / China mobile phone number to register.

Goldman Sachs' downgrade didn't help either, even though their target price is $46.00 - see https://www.americanbankingnews.com/2021/09/22/hutchmed-nasdaqhcm-lowered-to-neutral-at-the-goldman-sachs-group.html . Great to see many hedge funds and institutional investors have have recently increased their stakes.

Interesting article. Thanks Jatw. Here is another research article from CMB International, giving Hutchmed a target price of HK$77.74 or £7.24

https://www.cmbi.com/article/5925.html?lang=cn

Hopefully this will help a bit with exposure:- Shanghai Observer news report about Hutchmed receiving an award

https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=zh-CN&tl=en&u=https://www.jfdaily.com/sgh/detail?id%3D539431

In the article, Cui Yixuan should be Yiling Cui - Hutchmed Senior Vice President, Government Affairs

iWeb only just paid the dividend today. They are normally 1 day late but for REIT they can be 2, ,3 or 4 days late. Very random and annoying.

Amones, HCM will join the Hang Seng Composite Index (which has 504 Constituents) but not the Hang Seng Index (which has 60 Constituents but is being expanded to 80).

Its like joining the FTSE All Share Index but not the FTSE 100 Index.

I think HCM being able to participate in Stock Connect will be significant. The number of trades will probably go up by 20%, hopefully the price too.

$52 / £7.53 price target from Jefferies - https://seekingalpha.com/news/3724082-jefferies-initiates-chinese-biopharma-hutchmed-with-a-buy-sees-22-upside

$54.6 / £7.90 price target from China Merchant Security - https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202108041508025331_1.pdf

Both came out before the Tazverik news.

The shenanigans is caused by China cracking down on big tech and education stocks, plus the covid situation in the Far East . If the situation continues, price should be even lower after ex-dividend.

Ditto amones. Adding one more cheerful reason to Jatw's list:

8 Potential /Eventual addition to Hang Seng index and Southbound Stock Connect. Potential Shanghai / Shenzhen listing in mainland China.