Member Info for Svend

Aye, Nvidia may well have the order book of a royal banquet, but that does not mean the share price will automatically be fired into orbit on every results day.

The market is not asking, “Is Nvidia doing well?”

The market is asking, “Is Nvidia doing even better than the already ridiculous expectations baked into the price?”

Full order books are lovely. Presold capacity is lovely. Mega results are lovely.

But if everyone already knows the ship is loaded with gold, the question becomes: how much gold was already priced into the ticket before it left harbour?

Saying “AI is not a bubble because Nvidia has orders” is a bit like saying the Titanic could not sink because the dining room was fully booked.

Great company? Absolutely.

Full order book? Probably.

Automatically cheap at any price? Steady on, Captain Moonbeam.

All eyes today are on Nvidia going into Wednesday’s close. Every desk on the street is positioning for that print, and around that single event, the bigger story is how the bond market is affecting the equity market.

Retirment,

There is another point here: how many times has Trump said a war is ending “soon,” “very soon,” “very quickly,” or in “24 hours”?

He said repeatedly that he could end the Ukraine war in 24 hours; one fact-check reported he had made that claim at least 53 times.

Now, with Iran, we are hearing the same market-moving language again: “very soon,” “over quickly,” “very quickly.” That line appeared in March, again in early May, and again today as oil moved lower.

So yes, Trump’s words can move markets in the short term. Nobody is denying that. But the serious question is whether those words become actual policy, actual ceasefire, actual oil-flow normalisation, or just another headline that moves Brent for a few hours.

That is exactly why charts and price levels still matter. The headline is the spark; the chart shows whether the market believes it, rejects it, or sells into it.

So I will say it again:

One man’s words may move the tide for a day, but repeated “war ending soon” headlines are not a full navigation system. They are flares in the fog. Useful, loud, and sometimes misleading.

Retirment,

Aye, but you have just smuggled the Captain’s argument back aboard in a different hat.

Oil went down, inflation came in better than expected, Trump said the war would end “very quickly” > and somehow your conclusion is: “Only oil matters.”

That is not analysis, that is a one-man pub choir singing three different songs at once.

If inflation helped the market, then it was not just oil.

If Trump’s words moved sentiment, then it was not just oil.

If RR reacted to wider risk appetite, then it was not just oil.

You've listed several market drivers and then stated that only one exists. That is like blaming the whole ship’s speed on the parrot because it was shouting when the sails filled.

And charts do still matter. They do not predict Trump’s mouth opening > God help any chart that tries >, but they show where buyers step in, where sellers defend, where stops sit, and where the market accepts or rejects price.

So yes, Trump can move markets. Oil can move Rycey. Inflation can move the FTSE. But that proves the Captain’s point perfectly:

This is not one barrel of Brent steering the ship. It is a whole drunken crew fighting over the wheel.

Captain’s Table > RR Condensed Update

RR is still afloat, but she has not yet cleared the harbour wall.

The 1125 runway held again, and price has bounced back towards 1185–1190, but the key gate remains 1193. Until that is retaken, this is still a repair rally, not a confirmed breakout.

The map is simple:

Above 1193: recovery back on deck.

Above 1206: better waters open.

Above 1219.50: bullish swing structure returns.

Above 1230–1250: route reopens towards 1286, then 1300+.

Below deck:

Lose 1175: momentum weakens.

Lose 1150: back towards the runway.

Lose 1125: danger.

Lose 1111: emergency exit — deeper retracement risk returns.

Captain’s verdict: RR has bounced, but the sails stay half-raised until 1193 is captured.

Retirment,

Oil is a useful short-term weather vane. It is not the full navigation system for a four-year RR rerating.

Retirment,

The irony is, shouting “AI” every time you cannot answer the argument does not make my post look daft, it makes your reply look empty.

If the numbers are wrong, challenge the numbers.

If the logic is wrong, challenge the logic.

If the chart levels are wrong, challenge the levels.

But simply yelling “AI post” is not a counterargument. It is the message-board equivalent of throwing a wet sock at the compass because you do not like where it points.

So let’s keep it simple:

I will bring the argument. You bring something stronger than name-calling.

Retirment,

Aye, thank you > you have just accidentally made the Captain’s point for him.

You say Rycey peaked twice around £13.20, on 17 April and 6 May, while oil was supposedly at key lows. Fine. Log it in the ship’s diary.

But what you have described is not “oil controls everything.”

What you have described is a resistance zone around £13.20.

That is literally chart behaviour.

If oil alone were steering the ship, then the same oil move should have sent Rycey clean through £13.20 both times. It did not. It stalled. Twice. That means other forces were on deck: sellers, positioning, valuation, risk appetite, news flow, profit-taking, buyback expectations, wider market sentiment and plain old supply at that level.

So the great irony here is that, while shouting “charts are useless,” you have just handed over a chart point, a double peak, and a resistance level, all wrapped in a Brent Crude flag.

Yes, oil matters. Nobody sensible is denying that. Your example shows it is not oil alone. Oil may have helped push the ship toward £13.20, but something else stopped it from breaking through.

That “something else” is called the market.

So by all means keep firing “FACTS” from the harbour wall, but make sure they are pointing in the right direction. Because this one did not sink the Captain’s argument > it sailed straight into it.

Retirment,

Nobody said oil has no effect. The Captain said oil is one wind in the sails, not the whole ocean. And today’s little wave proves exactly that, not the opposite.

Oil down 2%, Rycey up 1.5%, FTSE red > fine, log it in the ship’s diary. But one matching day, or even a run of matching days, still does not mean oil is the only helm controlling the vessel.

If it were that simple, every deckhand with a Brent Crude chart would be retired on a private island by Friday.

Rycey also moves on aerospace confidence, defence money, buybacks, earnings expectations, broker flows, currency, geopolitics, and institutional positioning. Oil can push the tide, but it does not own the sea.

So by all means, keep posting the daily oil/RR weather report. It is useful enough as a flag on the mast. But calling it the whole navigation system is like steering the Titanic with a chip-shop receipt.

The Captain’s point still stands:

Oil is a useful resource. It is not the map, the compass, the engine room and the bloody captain all at once.

NuckyT,

Aye, Jules Verne had the spyglass pointed further ahead than most of the market even today.

Hydrogen may still be a distant harbour, but that is often where the best voyages begin > laughed at the dockside, then suddenly everyone wants a berth once the sails appear on the horizon.

Same with SMR. In 2020/21, it looked like it was ten years away, and many said it was too early. Now the same crew are checking the wind direction and asking whether they should have boarded sooner.

So yes, hopefully we have timed it right. But the real trick is not guessing the exact day the tide turns > it is owning the right ship before the harbour gets crowded.

Retirment,

Aye, “7 weeks” still does not turn a weather pattern into a navigation system.

That is the difference between a trend you can describe after the tide has moved and a tradeable edge you can use before the bell rings.

If oil falls overnight and Rycey opens up at 8 am, then the move has already left port before most sailors have found their boots. Shouting “oil down, RR up” after the ship has sailed is not seamanship > it is waving from the harbour wall.

And calling everything else “noise” does not make the sea simpler. RR is not pulled by one rope. It is moved by oil, FTSE sentiment, defence flows, civil aerospace, buybacks, broker notes, earnings expectations, currency, geopolitics and market positioning.

So yes, keep your 7-week logbook. But do not confuse the diary of the voyage with the compass that got us there.

The Captain’s point remains simple:

Oil may be one wind in the sails, but it is not the whole ocean.

Retirment,

Aye, but that’s not a trading system, shipmate > that’s a weather vane nailed to the mast with an oil barrel swinging underneath it.

One Wednesday of oil down / Rycey up does not prove a golden rule. It proves that on Wednesday, oil was down and Rycey was up. That’s an observation, not a treasure map.

Rycey moves with many winds: FTSE mood, aerospace confidence, defence flows, buybacks, earnings expectations, broker notes, currency, geopolitics, oil, and the great sea monster known as market positioning.

Picking one wave after the ship has already moved and shouting “I called the tide!” is not analysis > it is deckchair astrology.

And the bit about “we couldn’t buy because it opened up” rather proves the point. If the move is already gone by 8 am, then it is not a tradable edge. It is just yesterday’s fish wrapped in today’s newspaper.

So post away with the daily oil/RR check, captain. But let’s give it its proper name:

The Pub-Barometer of the High Seas > sometimes right, often lucky, and best not used as the ship’s navigation system.

Goldfinger77

Be quiet 🤫 > What is your problem? Chelsea - Tottenham is currently 2-1.

Goldfinger, it finished 1-1 (Bournemouth - Man City) 🎆

Let's see what 'Flyingdaleflyer' has in his locker first. The 2026 SMR revenue has already been confirmed by Turbo Tufan. 😎

NuckyT,

Aye, Verne had the hydrogen tealeaf on the chart back in the 1870s > “water will be the coal of the future” and all that. He did not quite sketch a Rolls-Royce hydrogen turbofan cruising over Heathrow, but the old lad certainly saw hydrogen as a future fuel long before today’s boardrooms discovered the word “workstream.” The difference is simple: Verne wrote the dream; engineers now have to make the thing fly without turning the balance sheet into a hot-air balloon.

Flyingdaleflyer, what is it you are seeing incoming?

Retirment, you’ve just fired a cannonball straight through your own rigging.

You say oil controls RR, then, in the same breath, admit you cannot predict oil and that by 8 am the move is already over. Aye > exactly. That is not a trading system. That is reading yesterday’s weather after the deck is already wet.

Yes, in a war scare, oil can become the loudest foghorn in the harbour. Nobody is denying that. When crude spikes, aviation sentiment takes a slap, and RR can get dragged with it. But that still does not mean oil is everything. It means oil is the storm of the day.

RR also moves on flying hours, defence, servicing revenue, cash-flow upgrades, buybacks, analyst revisions, wider FTSE risk appetite, and the technical levels where the big ships actually place their orders.

If it were simply oil up = RR down, we would all sit watching crude futures, press one button, and retire before Friday lunch. Sadly, Mr Market is not that generous.

As for Trump making billions on 3,700 trades, unless you’ve got the broker note, the account statement, and the parrot who signed the order ticket, I’ll file that one under harbour gossip and rum fumes for now.

The Captain’s point remains:

Oil is part of the weather. Price action tells us whether the ship is actually being blown off course.

That is why charts still matter. They do not predict the storm > they show whether RR is sinking, holding, or sailing through it.

Retirment, that is a fair old foghorn blast from someone accusing others of noise.

You keep mixing up three different things: a forecast, a target, and a guaranteed docking time. Saying RR has a route towards £15 if the results confirm the voyage is not the same as promising it would sail into port at £15 before the breakfast bell. Markets move in stages, not because a man on a message board stamps his foot on deck.

As for the guesses about my age, holding size, profit and motives, that is not “fact”. That is you drawing a treasure map with crayons and calling it navigation. You do not know my book, my average, my position size, my tax position, or my timeframe, so stop dressing up guesswork as evidence.

Same with EEE, RR, oil, war or anything else. You can be bearish. Fine. You can say a share may drop 15%. Fine. But shouting “fact” after every sentence does not make it an analysis. It just makes the foghorn louder.

The difference is simple:

I talk about levels, scenarios, risk lines and what would prove the view wrong.

You fire one-line cannonballs, then declare everything else “crap”.

That is not right. That is refusing to look beyond the last wave that hit the hull.

So, disagree all you like, but bring a chart, bring numbers, bring a proper argument. Otherwise, it is just cheap-deck shouting from a sailor who thinks the whole ocean is the size of his puddle.

Cev,

Agreed, Retirment does have a habit of mistaking a peephole for a panoramic window.

On the portfolio point, it would have taken one simple question > “which holdings were you referring to?” — instead of launching the calculator overboard and declaring the whole ship worth £200 million. That is not analysis; that is arithmetic in a foghorn.

Same with oil and Rolls-Royce. Of course, oil matters. Nobody is pretending the black barrel in the engine room is irrelevant. But saying “oil price = everything” is the investing equivalent of saying a ship only moves because of the wind, while ignoring the engine, crew, cargo, tide, harbour, weather, and whether the Captain has remembered where he parked it.

If RR simply moved in the opposite direction of oil every day, we would all be billionaires by Wednesday and retired by Friday. Sadly, markets are not that charitable.

RR moves on oil sentiment, yes > but also on flying hours, services revenue, defence, cash flow, guidance, buybacks, analyst revisions, order flow, technical levels and general market appetite. Oil is part of the weather. It is not the whole voyage.

So the point stands: charts and fundamentals are not rendered useless by oil's volatility. They become even more useful because they show how much of the storm the market is actually pricing in.

As for the grammar patrol, I shall leave “this is” and “these are” safely moored in the harbour. One battle at a time.