Member Info for Svend

Here is what I said:

Quote

''Retirment,

Had ye stayed calm aboard the good ship RYCEY, ye’d be sitting on a mighty 66.45% gain in one year, 761% over three years, and a barnacle-blasting 1,119% over five.

Instead, ye jumped overboard for an 18p profit and a 1.4% return, then strutted round the deck like ye’d found Blackbeard’s lost treasure.

And just when the crew thought the comedy voyage was complete, ye diverted precious cannon powder into M&S shares, sailing capital away from the mothership herself.

Therefore, by unanimous vote of the Captain’s Table, ye are hereby awarded the sacred title of:

Ship’s No. 1 Clown > first class, full uniform, red nose polished. 🤡''

Unquote

The price target is 1424, based on the combined estimates of analysts covering the company.

NB. The actual price is currently steadily gliding off the 200 SMA 10 mins line for the past 2.5 hours 🤣

Hi Chris,

Yes, the harbour really is crowded. It means the disclosed bears are short roughly one-ninth of the whole issued share capital > not just the tradable free float. That is a very heavy short stack, and if the Vistry narrative turns, the exit door may get blown out, narrowly and fast. i.e., the big spanking squeeze ensures😉

Chinese officials say they want a resolution to the Iran war before Trump’s trip to Beijing next week, Bloomberg reports

This is probably the hottest dicy backed potato ever grilled in the dessert. Without a deal, Trump's visit to China, scheduled for next week, could be premature.

Hopes that an end to the war may be closer are helping extend a pullback in oil prices.

Brent crude futures are trading about 1.5% lower at around $99 a barrel this afternoon. The U.S. and Iran are getting closer to restarting talks to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with discussions possibly resuming as early as next week.

*Current negotiations between the USA and Iran are the closest they have been to ending the war, INA reports

You keep calling them “facts”, but you are still avoiding the actual point.

Yes, you sold some RR at £13.10. Yes, you may be able to buy them back at a lower price today. That is a perfectly reasonable short-term trade if that was your plan. Nobody is “upset” by it. What is being challenged is the theatre around it > the idea that every small swing trade somehow proves superior judgment.

A fact is: you sold at £13.10.

Another fact is: RR may trade lower today.

But the important question is: will you actually buy them back, or will you spend the next move upwards explaining why you meant to?

That is where trading talk becomes accountable.

As for shareholding size, it is an unnecessary distraction. The market does not care who has the biggest pile on the table. It cares who understands risk, timing, valuation, trend, and discipline.

A large holding does not automatically make someone right. A small holding does not automatically make someone wrong. And retirement status does not turn a trade into an analysis.

Please post your trades. But do not confuse “I sold some and might buy cheaper” with a complete market argument. The scoreboard is not today’s boast > it is whether the decision improves your position after the tide has actually turned.

Retirment,

You are still missing the point completely.

Nobody disputes that your original RR holding has performed extremely well. The issue is that you keep trying to use a single major historical gain as a shield for every subsequent decision.

Your £12.92 parcel was not up 1,090%. It was a high-cost tranche you became uncomfortable with, and you sold it as soon as it produced a small profit. That may be fine as a personal trade, but do not dress it up as a case of genius capital allocation. It was not. It was breakeven psychology with a brass band attached.

The market does not care about your average, your retirement, your house, your cash pile, your IAG, Aviva, LGEN, gold, Aston, Boohoo, or your self-awarded place on the wealth leaderboard. None of that proves whether selling RR at this level was right or wrong.

The only thing that will judge that trade is the next move in the share price.

If RR drops back hard, you made a good tactical exit.

If RR pushes on towards the next ports, then you sold the very shares you were so desperate to escape from > and yesterday’s “profit” becomes tomorrow’s missed cargo.

That is the point.

Dragging net worth into a market discussion is usually what people do when the market argument is weak. Capital size is not analysis. Retirement is not an analysis. “I am richer than you” is not an analysis. It is just noise from the quarterdeck.

So enjoy the profit. But stop pretending one nervous sale of a high-cost parcel is some grand display of superior seamanship. It was one trade. The sea will mark it soon enough.

Retirment,

Had ye stayed calm aboard the good ship RYCEY, ye’d be sitting on a mighty 66.45% gain in one year, 761% over three years, and a barnacle-blasting 1,119% over five.

Instead, ye jumped overboard for an 18p profit and a 1.4% return, then strutted round the deck like ye’d found Blackbeard’s lost treasure.

And just when the crew thought the comedy voyage was complete, ye diverted precious cannon powder into M&S shares, sailing capital away from the mothership herself.

Therefore, by unanimous vote of the Captain’s Table, ye are hereby awarded the sacred title of:

Ship’s No. 1 Clown > first class, full uniform, red nose polished. 🤡

Retirment,

Aye, “oil down, RR up” is a fair wind > but it is not the whole weather map. The real compass is flying hours, guidance, cash flow and whether the storm clouds are clearing, not just the oil barrel bobbing lower for the day.

We are back on route now, back north above 1300 heading towards 1400

Imagine China negotiating with the USA without the oil flow from Iran sailing freely through the Straits of Hormuz, its largest and the world's biggest customer outside and beside Russia. That puts the USA in the hotspot.

It's now hitting a record of 11.06%..

Get ready for take off, next stop north of 1320 and breakout above 1329, time to 🚀

👍

Flyingdaleflyer, get ready for the afterburner ignition if/when a peace deal between the USA/Iran is announced.

IV 🙌🚀

Retirment,

Aye, congratulations > you turned the ship round, caught a puff of wind, and added a few more RR barnacles to the hull.

But let’s not mistake a harbour shuffle for a circumnavigation. An 18p scalp is fine trading if you execute it well, but crowing about it like you’ve conquered Cape Horn is where the comedy starts.

The sweet shop line still stands > you’ve just chosen to buy a few extra RR gobstoppers with the change.

As for “who’s the fool?” > The fool is the sailor who thinks one good tack means he controls the tide. RR can be £12 in a blink, yes, and it can also be back to £13 just as quickly when the fog lifts.

Trade your turns, by all means. I’ll keep watching the bigger voyage.

RR has now cleared 1286, broken through 1300, and is knocking on the 1325/1330 harbour wall. That is the next measured swing zone from the earlier 1111 double-bottom launch.

The breakout sequence is now:

1111 held → 1125 reclaimed → 1193 captured → 1219.50 cleared → 1286 broken → 1300 crossed → 1325/1330 now in play

So the trend remains bullish, but the short-term chart is now stretched.

Current position

The latest price is around 1318–1322, with the recent high near 1326.4.

The 10-minute moving averages are now well below the price:

EMA 28: around 1286.8

SMA 50: around 1246.9

EMA 150: around 1212.5

SMA 200: around 1189.2

Cloud support: around 1213–1220

That shows strength, but also means the ship is now sailing well ahead of its convoy. A pullback would be normal, not automatically bearish.

Swing trading map

Immediate resistance

1325–1330

This is the current battle zone. If RR clears and holds above it, the next route opens towards:

1370–1385, then 1400+

First tactical support

1300

This is the new near-term deck. Holding above 1300 keeps momentum strong.

Better pullback-buy zone

1286–1290

This is now the key breakout shelf. A controlled dip back towards the rising EMA 28 around 1286 would be a healthier swing entry than chasing the vertical candle.

Deeper support

1246–1250

That is the 10-minute SMA 50 area. A pullback there would be sharper, but still technically acceptable if buyers step back in.

Major breakout support

1219.50

This was the second target and should now act as the main structural support.

Must-hold line

1193

Below this, the breakout loses its shape.

Captain’s swing ideas

For existing longs, 1325–1330 is a sensible trim or trail-stop zone. The move has already travelled hard from the 1193 / 1219.50 breakout, so banking some cargo near the harbour wall is not cowardice > it is seamanship.

For fresh entries, the cleaner setups are:

Option 1: Break and hold above 1330, targeting 1370–1385.

Option 2: Pullback to 1300, then bounce.

Option 3: Deeper retest of 1286–1290, then reversal.

Chasing at 1320+ is possible, but the risk/reward is thinner because the chart is extended.

Captain’s conclusion

RR is now in strong breakout mode. The 1286 watchtower has been taken, 1300 has been crossed, and the ship is now testing the 1325/1330 harbour wall.

The wind is firmly in the sails, but the mast is stretched. Best swing discipline is simple:

Above 1300: Bulls remain in command.

Above 1330: next voyage towards 1370–1385.

Pullback to 1286–1300: possible cleaner entry zone.

Below 1219.50: caution returns.

Below 1193: breakout map damaged.

For now, the Captain stays bullish > but no chasing cannonballs after they have already left the deck.

Check out the pattern for the last 2 hours; it looks like the algorithms are taking to the stairs onto the moon from a departure above the cloud @ 7286 to now heading above 7333 in just 2 hours, and before the market has officially reopened, that is not normal price action...🤔