Member Info for Svend

WOW, that's a very impressive trading tactic, a whole 18 pence for a 1.4 % return, please spend it wisely in the sweet shop.

As a point in case: The 14-point peace plan presented in Tehran may have more legs than we know, so if Mr Market is a judge of where this is heading, the chances are more north than south, but as always, anything is possible. Enjoy the Voyage IV 🙌

''Push it down normally lol''

This market is not normal. Mr Market (SP500) is now hitting all-time highs while 2 wars are raging and oil markets are in limbo.

>>> Buy any dip and be mindful of any intraday reversal >>>

Aye, but that’s the point > £1 swings are not bad news by themselves; they are the new sea state for a bigger ship in deeper waters.

When RR was scraping around the lower decks, a few pence looked dramatic. Now the share price is up in the £12 harbour, the waves are naturally measured in pounds, not pennies.

Oil, headlines, war noise, analyst chatter > they all throw spray over the bow. But spray is not the same as structural damage.

The real question is not whether RR can move £1 on a gust of news. It clearly can. The question is whether the long-term engines > margins, cash flow, buybacks, debt repair, defence, civil aerospace, and SMR optionality — are still turning.

If they are, then £12 is not “bad news”. It is just the market reminding passengers that this is no longer a rowing boat. It is a behemoth, and behemoths make bigger waves.

Aye, but don’t let the £12.92 label on that parcel start whispering mutiny from the hold.

Those shares don’t know they were bought high. The market doesn’t know. Rolls-Royce certainly doesn’t know. The only question worth asking is this: from today’s deck, is the ship still sailing towards higher ports, or has the voyage changed?

If the investment case has broken, cut the rope and sail on.

But if the only reason for selling is because that “high buy” parcel has finally climbed close enough to let you escape without a red mark, then that is not strategy — that is the cabin boy tidying the logbook while the main fleet is still under full sail.

The danger is selling the shares that made you uncomfortable, just before they become the shares that prove you were right to stay aboard.

Cost price is history. Direction is what matters.

*For now, the wind is firmly back in the sails > but after a fast launch, watch for chop before the next leg north.

Captain’s Table — RR Latest Swing Trading Update

RR has now done exactly what the chart needed: 1193 was captured, 1219.50 was cleared, and the ship has fired straight towards the 1286.5 / 1286.6 target zone.

That is a major technical improvement.

The earlier 1111 runway hold has now developed into a full breakout sequence:

1111 hold → 1125 reclaim → 1193 breakout → 1219.50 breach → 1286.6 target hit

The double-bottom map is now active, not theoretical.

Current position

RR is trading around 1285–1287, which puts it right at the next measured resistance marker.

The 10-minute chart is very strong, but also stretched. Price is now well above the short-term moving averages:

EMA 28: around 1234

SMA 50: around 1209

EMA 150: around 1190

SMA 200: around 1174

That tells us the move has momentum, but also that a pullback would be normal. This is no longer the quiet boarding zone. This is now the fast water.

Swing trading map

Bullish above

1250 / 1260

As long as RR holds above that zone, the breakout remains healthy.

First support

1234–1250

This is the ideal pullback area for a cleaner swing entry. A controlled dip into this zone, followed by a bounce, would be far healthier than chasing a vertical candle.

Major breakout support

1219.50

This was the previous target. It should now act as support if the breakout is genuine.

Must-hold structure

1193

If RR loses 1193, the breakout has failed, and the ship is back inside the harbour wall.

Upside targets

The first major target has now effectively been hit:

1286.5 / 1286.6

Above this, the next swing targets are:

1300 — psychological round number

1325–1330 — next measured move zone

1370–1385 — old upper supply waters

1400+ — prior high retest zone if momentum continues

The route to 1400+ is now technically open again, but it is unlikely to be a straight-line voyage. Expect zigzags, pullbacks and shakeouts.

Trading ideas

Breakout trader

A clean hold above 1286.6 opens the door to 1300, then 1325–1330.

But chasing here carries risk because the move from 1193 to 1286 has been sharp.

Pullback trader

Better risk/reward sits on a pullback into:

1250 / 1234

If that area holds, it offers a cleaner re-entry with 1286.6, 1300, and 1325 as upside markers.

Defensive trader

Partial profit near 1286–1300 is sensible if already in from lower levels, especially after such a steep climb.

Captain’s conclusion

RR has broken out properly. The 1193 fort has been taken, 1219.50 has been crossed, and the ship has now reached the 1286.5 watchtower.

The trend is bullish, but the chart is stretched in the short term. The Captain would not confuse strength with a free lunch. A pullback towards 1250 or 1234 would be normal and possibly healthy.

The clean message is:

Above 1250, the bulls remain in command.

Above 1286.6, the next harbour is 1300, then 1325.

Below 1219.50, caution returns.

Below 1193, the breakout has failed.

For now, the wind is firmly back in

Retirment,

Aye, oil down and SP up today > but calling that a compass is like judging the Atlantic by one calm puddle.

Markets don’t sail “day on day” by nursery-rhyme mottos. Oil is one current in the water, not the whole tide. Rolls moves on engines flying, margins improving, cash flow, guidance, buybacks, defence, sentiment, and what the market decides to price in next.

“Keep it simple” is fine. Keep it too simple, and you’re not navigating > you’re drifting.

Today’s breeze may suit your motto, but one green candle doesn’t make you Captain of the chart.

Captain’s Table > RR Swing Trading Update

Latest close: 1,199.2p, +1.46% on 1 May. Intraday range: 1,166p–1,207p. RR followed the big 30 April recovery day with another positive close, so the 1111 / 1125 runway defence has now turned into a genuine recovery attempt, not just a dead-cat bounce.

RR has now crossed the 1193 checkpoint and closed just above the Captain’s 1195 line, which is technically constructive. The first target has effectively been tagged. The next question is whether RR can hold this deck or whether the market drags it back into the cloud.

The daily chart is improving, but not fully repaired. Price is back above the 20-day area around 1188/1190 and the 200-day area near 1129, but it remains below heavier resistance around the 50-day/upper cloud region near 1249–1260.

The weekly chart is still the main warning flag. RR has bounced, but the weekly structure is not yet back in full power-trend mode. It needs to reclaim the 1219.50–1259 zone before the bigger institutions will likely treat this as more than a rebound.

The monthly chart remains the Captain’s strongest map. The long-term uptrend remains intact, with price above the rising monthly support structure, particularly the monthly 20 EMA around 1038. That keeps the broader voyage alive.

Swing trading map

Bullish route

The immediate bullish trigger is a clean hold above:

1193 / 1195

If RR can stay above that zone, the next target is:

1219.50

That remains the second harbour marker and prior resistance. A strong daily close above 1219.50 would improve the double-bottom case and open the next resistance band:

1249–1260

That is where the heavier cloud and the weekly moving average resistance sit. Clear that, and the next measured swing levels become:

1286 → 1325/1330 → 1400+

The analyst consensus target is 1428p, roughly 19% above the 1 May close, which aligns with the wider technical recovery zone if momentum rebuilds.

Pullback-buy idea

Best swing entry area now looks like:

1188–1195

That is the first retest zone. If RR pulls back into that area and holds, it would suggest old resistance is becoming new support.

Second pullback zone:

1166–1175

That is the latest intraday support shelf from the 1 May range. A controlled dip into that area, followed by a reversal, would still keep the recovery structure alive.

Deeper support:

1125

This remains the runway. A return there would be messy, but still technically survivable if it holds.

Risk line

The Captain’s emergency exits remain unchanged.

Below 1166, the short-term swing weakens.

Below 1125, the recovery loses structure.

Below 1111, the double-bottom map is torn up, and the old head-and-shoulders danger returns.

Captain’s conclusion

RR has now landed the first cannon shot at 1193/1195. That is progress. But the fort is not fully captured until the price holds above it and pushes towards 1219.50.

For swing traders, the clean plan is:

Retirment,

So your grand discovery is that when the pressure eases, the share price can recover?

That is not a contradiction > that is the exact point.

The argument was never “oil up equals RR down forever.” The argument was:

War-driven oil spike = short-term headwind.

Oil cooling = pressure eases, sentiment improves.

You have just proved the point while trying to mock it.

As for the AI obsession, that seems to have become the lifeboat whenever the actual market argument runs aground. Whether a sentence is written by hand, quill, smoke signal or ship’s cat Nettles, the question is simple:

Is the logic right?

And in this case, your own example confirms it.

Oil down. Risk pressure eases. RR up.

Thank you for sailing directly into the harbour and announcing you found it.

Captain’s Table — RR Latest Technical Update

RR has now reached the first checkpoint at 1193, briefly pushed through it, then hit turbulence and pulled back to the 1174 area.

That changes the map slightly.

The 1111 runway still held, and the recovery remains alive, but the first assault on 1193 has not yet been fully secured. For now, 1193 is still the harbour wall. It has been tested, but not properly conquered.

Current position

Latest 10-minute structure shows RR sitting around 1174, almost exactly on the EMA 28, with the short-term moving averages bunching tightly:

EMA 28: around 1174

SMA 50: around 1178

Cloud top: around 1179–1180

EMA 150: around 1156

SMA 200: around 1141

Major support: 1125

Deep emergency runway: 1111

So the immediate battle is now 1174–1180.

If RR can reclaim and hold above 1180, the next run at 1193 comes back into play. If 1193 is cleared with conviction, the second target remains 1219.50.

Updated chart read

The good news: RR has made a clear higher push off the 1111/1125 base, proving the bounce was not dead wood.

The caution: the rejection near 1193–1200 shows there is still overhead supply. The market has not yet accepted that higher deck as new support.

The current move looks like a pause after the first climb, not a failed reversal > provided 1155–1141 holds underneath.

Captain’s levels

Bullish above:

1180, then 1193

Next target:

1219.50

Trend support:

1156 / 1148 / 1141

Critical support:

1125

Emergency exit:

1111

Captain’s conclusion

The first cannon shot at 1193 has landed, but the fort is not yet captured.

RR needs to retake 1180, then break and hold 1193 to confirm the next leg towards 1219.50. Until then, the chart is still constructive, but in cloud navigation mode rather than open-water sailing.

Below 1125, the voyage gets messy again. Below 1111, the double-bottom map is torn up, and the deeper head-and-shoulders retracement reappears on the chart.

Pub-table one-liners can be right as a warning, but they are not a trading system.

Yes, in a war-driven oil spike, the first read is simple: risk off, oil up, aviation-linked stocks under pressure. Nobody sensible ignores that. But saying charts become “totally false” in a war is going too far.

Charts do not predict missiles, ceasefires or headlines. What they do show is where money is actually moving once those headlines hit: where buyers defend, where sellers appear, where stops sit, where panic exhausts, and where institutions start accumulating again.

If charts were useless in war, the price would be random. It is not. It still respects liquidity, support, resistance, volume, moving averages and prior reaction zones > just with wider swings and more false breaks.

The mistake is not using charts.

The mistake is using charts without respecting the macro storm.

So the sensible approach is:

Macro tells you why the sea is rough.

Charts tell you where the rocks, currents and safe harbours are.

Oil shock and war headlines may explain the move, but the chart still shows whether RR is breaking down, holding support, or being quietly bought into fear.

That is not “false.” That is risk management.

Guess what > that “one correct line” is the actual conclusion.

The rest was the route map showing why it matters, not “AI crap.” Markets do not move because someone shouts “oil up, RR down.” They move because investors price the cause of the oil move.

There is a big difference between:

Oil rising because global demand is strong > often constructive for flying hours, travel demand and engine utilisation.

And:

Oil spiking because missiles are flying, tankers are at risk, and the Strait of Hormuz is suddenly on the radar > that hits airlines, sentiment, inflation expectations, risk appetite and anything tied to aviation.

So yes, the short version is:

War-driven oil spike = short-term headwind for RR.

That was the point. The detail was for those who prefer charts and context over pub-table one-liners.

Retirment,

If that statement refers to Rycey and uses the April 2026 oil-shock window, it is true quite often, but not always.

I matched Brent Oil daily % change against Rolls-Royce daily % change for the common trading days shown in the Investing.com historical tables. RR’s April daily changes are listed from 1–30 April, and Brent’s equivalent daily changes are listed for the same period.

Result: April 2026 only

Brent up / RR down happened 7 times out of 12 Brent-up days = about 58%.

As a share of all common trading days, it happened 7 times out of 20 = 35%.

Including today’s live/intraday move > Brent up roughly +0.97% and RR down roughly -0.63% >, it becomes 8 out of 13 Brent-up observations = about 62%, but today is not a final closing print yet.

Dates where oil was up, and RR was down

2 Apr, 15 Apr, 16 Apr, 20 Apr, 21 Apr, 22 Apr, 29 Apr

Plus 1 May intraday so far.

Captain’s read

In this current storm, oil up / RR down has been true on roughly 6 out of 10 oil-up days. That is meaningful, but not a permanent law.

The reason is simple: RR is not an airline, but the market still reads a sharp oil spike as bad for aviation demand, margins, travel sentiment, inflation, rates, and general risk appetite. That is why high oil can drag RR even though RR also benefits from flying hours over time. Recent market reporting also noted that high oil hit travel/leisure and aerospace names during the Iran/Hormuz risk episode.

So the rule is:

Oil rising because demand is strong = not necessarily bad for RR.

Oil spiking due to war/supply shock = usually bad for RR in the short term.

100% SMRs are likely to become the 4th pillar of the UK's largest conglomerate, and for all the right reasons, given the huge energy demands from EV/AI data centres worldwide, basically, Turbomolecular-charged nuclear take off.

By the way, for clarity, JPMorgan has not just bought a few planks of Vistry timber. They have taken a sizable seat at the table through the derivatives hatch, with> 5.46% total exposure, but only 1.17% nailed down as actual shares. The rest is swap-rigging. Potentially bullish, potentially client-driven, but definitely not something to ignore while the short fleet is circling below the water surface.

Andys288, a few percentage-point increases of 7.59% each, and Rycey is turbo-charging towards the North Star.

I guess JP Morgan is looking to double their stake in the near term; Probably seeing the strategic market moat/stronghold Vistry is creating, along with their J/Vs with the government in affordable housing.

Vistry is one of the most shorted FTSE 350 stocks, probably top 5–10, but not currently number one.

The current “shorters’ line in the sand” is meaningful because several funds are clustered above the 0.5% disclosure threshold, so any sustained recovery in the share price could trigger forced trimming or covering pressure.

New skipper, same vessel > but the orders are now clear: lighten the cargo, sell the stock on deck, stop cash leaking through the planks, and prove the partnerships route can still reach calmer waters.

Then it's spanking time by a short squeeze brings it back up to the 700-1100 range, where it belongs longer term. 🙌✌

< Captain’s Table > RR Technical Update

The 1111 runway held, and RR has now lifted cleanly back above 1125, with the first flight path aimed at 1193.

The short-term charts have turned more constructive, especially the 10-minute and 1-hour, but the ship is now entering the cloud bank. The first turbulence sits at 1193, followed by the second marker at 1219.50, the old April resistance.

If RR can clear and hold above 1193, the bounce becomes more than just a relief rally. If it then takes 1219.50, the chart starts drawing a tidy double-bottom formation, with the next measured targets around 1275, then 1325, before any serious attempt back towards the 1400+ waters.

The daily chart is not fully repaired yet. Above 1219.50, RR still has to battle through the heavier cloud between 1233 and 1256, with the 50-day average near 1240 acting as another lookout post.

Emergency exits remain below deck. A slip back under 1125 weakens the take-off. A decisive break below 1111 would cancel the double-bottom map and reopen the risk of a deeper head-and-shoulders retracement.

For now, the tide has turned short-term — but the Captain wants 1193 cleared, then 1219.50 captured, before declaring blue water ahead.

Ahens81, you are dicking yourself into a deeper and deeper hole, now get off that hamster wheel