Member Info for Svend

Retirment,

Aye, oil matters > no Captain worth his compass is ignoring the big black barrel sloshing around in the engine room.

But saying “oil price = everything” is like saying a ship only sails because of the wind and forgetting the engine, crew, cargo, tide, charts, harbour master and the occasional lunatic with a cannon.

Rolls-Royce is not an airline with wings glued to the oil price. It is an engineering, defence, power systems and long-cycle service beast. Oil can slap sentiment around the deck, yes, but RR also moves on flying hours, engine servicing, defence orders, cash flow, buybacks, guidance, analyst upgrades, institutional money and wider market mood.

Charts do not predict the storm. They show whether the ship is taking on water or cutting through it.

If oil really were everything, RR would move in the exact opposite direction of crude every single day. It does not. Some days, oil is the storm. Other days, it is just a noisy seagull shouting over the harbour.

Moving averages are not magic treasure maps, but they show where buyers and sellers have fought before. Ignoring them completely is like throwing the compass overboard because the sea looks rough.

So yes, oil is a headwind when it spikes. But it is not the whole engine room.

Oil is part of the weather. Price action tells us whether the ship is actually being blown off course.

Retirment, calling something “fact atm” does not magically turn a one-line guess into proper analysis.

The point was simple: oil down / RR up may be true on a given day, but it is still far too simplistic as a trading rule. RR does not move on oil alone. It moves on market sentiment, civil aviation demand, defence, services revenue, cash-flow expectations, buybacks, analyst revisions, geopolitics, technical levels and wider risk appetite.

So no, it is not “hyperbole” to say context matters. It is basic market analysis.

A pub-table slogan may occasionally line up with the day’s price action, but that does not make it a reliable system. Even a broken compass points north now and then.

If you want to trade RR using “oil down = RR up” as your entire map, crack on. But don’t mistake a lucky tide for navigation. 🤡

Captain’s Table > Rycey Condensed Update

RR has bounced off the 1125 runway, but the ship is still below the key 1193 harbour wall. Until 1193 is recaptured, this remains a repair job, not a confirmed breakout.

The daily tealeaves are sitting near the big moving-average zone around 1170–1175, so this is a key deck. Hold here, and the bulls can reload. Lose it, and the ship may drift back towards 1150, then 1125.

The battle map is simple:

Above 1193: recovery back on deck.

Above 1219.50: proper bullish swing structure returns.

Above 1250: route reopens towards 1286–1300.

Above 1325: old breakout waters come back into view.

Below deck:

Lose 1150: caution.

Lose 1125: danger.

Lose 1111: emergency exit > deeper retracement risk returns.

For now, RR has not sunk, but she is still in the fog. The Captain wants 1193 taken back before raising full sails again.

Enjoy the voyage IV🙌

The UN is considering a resolution against Iran, proposed by the USA and Bahrain and supported by Jordan, the UAE, and Qatar. The 3rd attempt

IVITK,

Thank you kindly, much appreciated.

Aye, the old pirate posts were never meant to be investment advice, more like a battered ship’s log from the deck of the good ship Rycey, written with one eye on the chart, one eye on the horizon, and the ship’s cat Nettles sitting on the sell button.

As for the patience of a saint > I’m not sure about that. More likely the stubbornness of an old sea dog who has seen enough storms, false dawns, fog banks, short-termers, doom merchants, and deckchair economists to know that sometimes the best tactic is simply to lash yourself to the mast and let the squalls pass.

Glad they brought a bit of character during the climb. Markets can be dry enough without removing all the rum from the barrel.

Fair winds to you.

Retirment,

That is far too simplistic.

Oil and war headlines are obviously important for Rolls-Royce in the short term. Nobody seriously denies that. But saying “oil up, SP down, and vice versa > that’s it” is not analysis; it is pub-table shorthand dressed up as certainty.

If it were that simple, every trader on earth would be retired by lunchtime.

Rolls-Royce is not priced on oil alone. It is priced on expectations around flying hours, engine margins, defence demand, cash generation, debt reduction, buybacks, guidance, analyst upgrades, institutional flows, wider market risk appetite, and, yes > geopolitical risk. Oil is one moving part, not the whole engine room.

And charts are not magic. They do not predict missiles, peace deals, or oil spikes. What they do is show where buyers and sellers have previously acted, where momentum is building, and where risk changes. A close above 1175 does not guarantee 1206, but it does suggest the market is trying to rebuild structure. That matters.

Saying “it was £14 before the war, so it will hit £14 again” is just as much a prediction as any chart target > only with less structure behind it.

Yes, a sharp move in oil could knock it back. That is why levels matter. That is why stops, position sizing, and IF/THEN planning matter. The whole point of technical analysis is not to pretend risk does not exist, but to avoid being the sailor shouting at the weather while ignoring the map.

So no > it is not “oil up, SP down, end of story.”

It is oil, war, sentiment, earnings, cash flow, trend, valuation, and market positioning all pulling on the same rope. The chart simply shows which side is currently winning. 🤡

Currently navigating into the 200 SMA on the 10-minute time frame, this turned out to be the top yesterday. If the price closes above 1175, then this sets up the new runway for a re-takeoff into the 1200's towards the 1st objective located @ 1206 imoo dyor

Get used to it and use it to your advantage if you can't beat them, join them comes to mind. He does have many reasons to end this sooner rather than later, you know.

Basil1990

''Since when has trump paid any attention to what other countries tell him to do. He is in the crap and can't find a way out''

You seem to be busting out all over the place. Are you shorting stocks by any chance?

Mr Market (SP500) is heading back up towards the opening range @ 7400 (intraday high was 7432)

Probably still a 50/50 call, the 2 main issues remain:

1. No Nukes and

2. Free passage of the Strait of Hormuz

The wind has changed, now heading back northerly towards 1206, and a break above 1220/1250 would resume the uptrend.

Mr Markets just love a rudderless ship bobbing around without a firm captain…

Tim,

https://www.tiktok.com/@europeanvolleyball/video/7640943656177798402

Tim,

''Share prices can dip across the board, affecting not only Rycey but also many other companies listed on the London stock market.''

Correct, since it is not specifically concerning Rycey, there is no need to flash them up. Muppet comes to mind!

https://www.google.com/search?q=Muppet+comes+to+mind!&rlz=1C1ONGR_en-GB__1193__1194&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8#fpstate=ive&vld=cid:7f9af8c3,vid:8N_tupPBtWQ,st:0

Arsenal17, I was expecting better of you now that Man City are the FA Cup winners. Maybe a congratulation would have been more appropriate, but I guess you are still recovering from seasickness and from jumping from one dinghy to the other while looking for spinster action.🤣

Tim,

That argument carries a lot of weight with limited support.

“Labour infighting” is not exactly a revelation. Political parties fight internally; they always have. The real question is whether the leadership is still capable of governing, making decisions, controlling the agenda, and avoiding self-inflicted damage.

On that point, yes > judgment matters. Appointments matter. Optics matter. Ignoring warnings matters. If a leader surrounds himself with controversial baggage and then acts surprised when the baggage becomes the story, that is not bad luck; that is poor political risk management.

But let’s not pretend front-page noise alone proves anything. The test is not gossip, clips, nicknames, or Westminster theatre. The test is decision-making under pressure. Does he read the room? Does he understand consequences? Does he appoint people because they strengthen the mission, or because the old political club still protects its own?

That is where the concern lies.

A serious leader does not just need policies. He needs judgment. He needs discipline. He needs to understand that every appointment sends a signal. If the signal is “I was warned, but I went ahead anyway,” then criticism is not propaganda > it is accountability.

So the issue is not whether people need to “catch up.” The issue is whether the leadership itself has caught up with the fact that the public no longer gives politicians the endless benefit of the doubt. One poor call can be explained. A pattern of poor calls becomes character evidence. None of what you stated answered the simple question: What does political infighting have to do with the share price of Rycey?

Tim,

''So does infighting within the Labour Party.'' Elaboration please?

Tim, keep the politics off this board; it has no content or relevance to Rycey whatsoever, pure waste of reading time, really.

Icecool agreed £ 100M Cash and zero debt by year-end, where does that leave the shorts apart from on the wrong side of the road = major short covering fireworks spike into 2027 🧨💥✨🎆