Member Info for Svend

Retirment,

Final Words:

If you disagree with the trade, challenge the levels, the thesis, the risk/reward, or the chart. Personal insults, slurs and ‘I trade bigger than you’ chest-beating do not make an argument stronger. Serious forums are built on evidence, not playground status games.

Captain’s RR > US500 Map with latest update

The US500 closed like a ship that found the harbour wall, bounced off it, but still has a wet deck and a nervous crew.

For RR tomorrow, the wind is simple:

US500 above 7388–7424 = fairer seas. RR can try 1275p, then 1290–1300p.

US500 below 7359 = caution. RR risks slipping back below 1258p.

US500 below 7330 = proper squall. RR likely heads for 1238–1232p.

RR’s own compass:

1258–1265p — main plank. Hold this and the ship lives.

1275p — first reclaim. Crew stop wobbling.

1290–1300p — captain retakes the wheel.

1312–1329p — recovery sails filling.

1339–1347p — high-water mark.

Below deck:

1250p — warning.

1232p — serious support.

1207–1193p — lifeboat territory.

Captain’s verdict

Tomorrow is not about heroic speeches. It is about US500 direction, oil, and whether RR holds 1258p.

Hold 1258p and reclaim 1275p — voyage stabilises.

Break 1300p — cannons back out.

Lose 1258p — caution.

Lose 1232p — stop singing shanties and check the bilge.

Over and out. IV🙌🏴‍☠️

Karv1 spent that £40 million on buybacks, then restarted the dividends from a much lower base, really squeezing the SS where it hurts the most.

That would also be an ideal and nice farewell retirement present to Creg from his fellow Vistry teammates.

Dixon1,

Washing out the magic 7 to turn it into SpaceX, anyone boarding that spaceship may get catapulted into space dust on the grounds of lack of liquidity.

Meanwhile, today's price action on the S&P 500 was spectacular, though, with the turn in the early afternoon, sub 7250 to close above 7375 was a nice Tuesday Reversal ride and too close out at the to @ Fib 0.50/0.618 was a textbook pullback. Probably orchestrated in the main by the hedge fund algos.

Oil futures spiked briefly after President Trump said the U.S. must respond to Iran's shooting down of a U.S. Apache helicopter near the Strait of Hormuz, before resuming their decline. Prices are lower on Trump's assertions that the U.S. and Iran are within days of reaching a deal to end the conflict. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said earlier that oil flows through the strait are rising "meaningfully" without giving details. WTI is off 4.4% at $87.29 a barrel andBrent is down 3.6% at $90.84. "Prices could potentially fall into the low-to-mid $80 range as speculators exit their positions," says Peter Cardillo of Spartan Capital.

Where is the village 🤡 ? Was he asked to walk the plank today?

Retirment,

By hook or by crook, you try to come across as superior, but underneath it all, you remain the village 🤡

RR has taken a bucket of seawater over the bow, but she has not sunk.

The whole fight is now around 1258–1265p. That is the current plank, the Fib 0.382, and the place where the crew are trying to stop the ship sliding into the engine room.

The key sailing marks

1258–1265p — current battle deck. Hold it, and the ship steadies.

1275p — first proper reclaim. Back above here, the crew stop looking seasick.

1290–1300p — big resistance harbour wall. Break this, and the bulls get the wheel back.

1339–1347p — recent high-water mark.

1375–1400p — open sea if the breakout returns.

1420p — old crow’s-nest target.

Below deck:

1249–1250p — daily cloud support.

1232p — Fib 0.50. Lose this, and the cabin boy starts praying.

1215–1217p — weekly support shelf.

1204p — emergency lifeboat.

1193–1189p — if this goes, the voyage turns ugly.

Captain’s verdict

The 1258p floor may be the bottom, but it has not yet earned its captain’s hat. It needs confirmation.

The simple voyage plan:

Hold 1258p.

Reclaim 1275p.

Break 1300p.

Retest 1347p.

Until then, RR is in repair mode, not full cannon-fire mode.

Lose 1232p, and we stop singing sea shanties and start checking the lifeboats.

Is there going to be a deal between the USA and Iran before the first kick of the Football games in either Group A on Thursday (opening Game) or Group D on Saturday USA)? According to DJT, he states 2-3 days from here, but that rhetoric has been aired before without any substance.

@Hawki2s,

Fair enough, mate. The boat, pirate lines and metaphors are just a bit of colour around the analysis > nothing more sinister than that. Markets are dry enough without turning every post into a tax manual in a life jacket.

Win or lose, we all steer our own ship. As long as the numbers are sound and no one’s being hurt, I’ll keep the telescope out and the tea leaves warm.

Ask yourself how much the " SS " paid Barclays to prepare/issue such a crazy, wild downgrade- mind-bending, really- but then again, just look what happened to the SS over at Tate and Lyle 🤣

@Beza,

Disclosed short book remains very crowded; latest company calendar points to a 16 Jul trading update and 24 Sep half-year results.

@BB,

Agreed, completely.

The cost of bringing the asset to market is absolutely critical, because resource size alone does not equal profit. A discovery only becomes economically valuable once you understand the route to production, the required capex, operating costs, funding structure, infrastructure needs, processing costs, transport costs, and expected selling price.

At the moment, that is the missing bridge between geological potential and investable value.

That said, early-stage resource companies are rarely valued with perfect cost certainty. They are valued progressively as the risk is reduced: discovery, flow rates, resource definition, development concept, capex estimates, funding, offtake, farm-out/JV, and finally production.

So yes, until we know the cost to commercialise, any valuation has to carry a large discount. But that does not make the asset worthless; it simply means the market is pricing probability, risk, dilution, and execution > not proven profit yet.

For me, the key question is not simply “how much helium is there?” or “what is the cash burn?” It is about whether the company can demonstrate a credible, fundable path from discovery to commercial production without destroying shareholder value along the way.

@BB

That’s a fair point, but I don’t think it’s an either/or question.

The amount of helium in the ground matters because it defines the size of the prize. What has been marketed, contracted, farmed out, or funded determines whether that prize has any current commercial value. One is the asset case; the other is the investable case.

So yes, balance sheet strength, cash burn, funding runway, dilution risk, and any proven route to market are absolutely central. Without those, geology alone is just potential sitting underground.

But equally, without understanding the scale, grade, flow rates, commercial recovery, and development pathway, the balance sheet tells you only how long the company can survive > not whether the asset is worth backing.

For me, the proper investment question is: does the subsurface opportunity justify the financial risk now, and is there credible evidence that management can convert it into commercial value without destroying shareholders through endless dilution?

That is where the valuation should be anchored > not just on what is in the ground, and not just on the cash burn, but on whether the two meet in a realistic commercial plan.

@BobbyBagger

If you are evaluating an investment, structuring a joint venture, or navigating the licensing pathway in Tanzania’s mining sector, contact:

Sunday Ndamugoba — Partner, RIVE&Co sunday@rive.co.tz

Let us know how you get on crunching those numbers 🧐

Latest: ~1255–1268p | Mode: repair voyage

RR has taken a slap from the waves. The old 1258p floor has been pierced, so it is no longer confirmed support. It is now the reclaim line.

The good news is that the ship has not sunk. The flush looks to have tested near the 1204–1206p Fib 0.618 zone and bounced. That could be a spring / false breakdown, but only if buyers now retake the decks above.

Key levels

1260–1265p — first repair line.

1275–1280p — proper bounce confirmation.

1293–1300p — bulls retake the wheel.

1320–1330p — next target.

1347p — May high / high-water mark.

1370–1385p — extension zone.

1400–1420p — major breakout waters.

Below deck:

1250p — immediate defence.

1240p — 1H 200 SMA support.

1232p — Fib 0.50 / major support.

1214–1217p — daily/weekly support shelf.

1204–1206p — emergency Fib 0.618 line.

1193–1189p — danger zone.

Moving-average compass

The 10m chart is trying to repair but needs back above 1260–1265p.

The 1H chart is still in repair mode until 1275–1280p is cleared.

The 4H chart remains fragile but alive as long as 1230–1235p holds.

The weekly chart is still broadly constructive above 1217–1239p.

Captain’s verdict

RR is not back in full sail yet. It has survived the squall, but the crew still need to reclaim the upper deck.

The voyage plan:

Hold 1250p.

Retake 1265p.

Clear 1280p.

Break 1293–1300p.

Only above 1300p does this turn from repair mode back into attack mode.

Lose 1232p, and the ship drifts toward 1215p / 1204p.

Break 1204p, and the damage becomes serious.

Monitor daily short-position moves; pay attention to any evidence that shorts are covering before July.

@pjmcgra Thanks, as always, get the foundation right first. Lorna stated this back in the 1st quarter:

'' We now need to increase our understanding of the Basement fault and fracture play, where we believe there is the potential to increase GWRs and helium concentrations. In order to do this, a further work programme will be required, and we will commence a strategic farmout process to seek an industry partner to help us deliver this.''

💨🎈🙌

Https://www.rive.co.tz/tanzania-enters-the-global-helium-market-legal-and-commercial-analysis-of-the-southern-rukwa-project/

💨🎈🎈🎈🎈🎈🙌

PaniV2

Inflation is still finding its way out of the genie bottle; interest rates may have to rise as a result.

Add to that the fact that the 4-week war in Iran is now in its 12th week, which is driving up gas/oil and fertiliser prices worldwide, not to mention helium.

The global helium market is experiencing severe tightening following geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, which have disrupted supply and caused spot prices to surge by 50% to 100%. The party balloons are sky-rocketing prices on everything 🎈🎈🎈🎈🎈