Member Info for Svend

@MIDS1 That is a perfectly sensible trading plan > buy near the lower deck, sell near the upper rail, then try not to fall overboard in between.

Sub 1170 and 1130 have certainly offered decent boarding points recently, and 1330+ has been a tempting harbour to unload some cargo.

The only snag, as always, is that the market has a wicked sense of humour: the one time you wait politely at the dock, the ship usually leaves without even waving.

So yes, good plan > just keep one eye on the chart, one hand on the line, and don’t let the proverbial boat sail off while you’re still haggling with the ticket office.

Smokeytime, perhaps we should summon the Quartermaster to the chart table and ask whether our good shipmate retirment wishes to hoist the white flag, change tack, or continue firing damp cannonballs from the dinghy.

If he insists on boarding with no charts, no compass and only “oil did it” carved into the mast, then we may have to offer him two honourable choices:

surrender the argument gracefully > or report to the plank for a short educational swim.

@Smokytime, Fair point > war absolutely changes the sea state. It can whip up oil, sentiment and volatility without warning.

But that is exactly why the chart still matters. The chart does not predict the cannon fire; it shows whether RR is taking spray over the bow or whether the hull is actually breached.

Oil and war explain the weather. Technical levels show whether the ship is still seaworthy.

A £1 move either way is possible in this environment, yes. But that does not make levels irrelevant. It makes them more important.

In calm seas, almost anyone can steer. In a storm, you need the chart, the compass and the emergency exits marked clearly.

For RR, the war/oil issue is the macro cannon fire. The technicals show whether the hull is breached or whether the ship is simply taking waves over the bow.

So I agree with the risk. I just disagree that analysis becomes pointless because the backdrop is volatile.

Volatility does not remove structure > it tests it.

Latest zone: 1286–1289p

RR took a sharp wave off the 1339.95p masthead, but the ship found support almost perfectly at the 0.382 Fib tide line: 1257.76p.

Now the battle is simple:

Hold 1258: reload remains valid.

Reclaim 1289: repair begins.

Reclaim 1300–1308: bulls back on the upper deck.

Above 1325: attack resumes.

Above 1350: route reopens to 1370–1385.

Below deck:

Lose 1258: next stop 1232.

Lose 1232: deeper tide to 1207.

Lose 1207: risk returns to 1193 harbour wall.

Captain’s verdict: the pullback was rough, but not fatal. 1258 held > now RR must reclaim 1300 to get the sails properly filled again.

Trello,

Fair point, but let's be 100% factual for a moment.

''A bear market is a prolonged period of declining asset prices, traditionally defined as a drop of 20% or more from a recent market peak. It is characterised by widespread pessimism, dropping investor confidence, and a general economic slowdown.''

Simple maths: Rycey went from 1420 > 1079 = 24%

Retirment,

You are confusing the term “bear market” with “the whole market must be in a bear market.”

A bear market can refer to an index, a sector, a commodity, or an individual share. If a stock falls materially from its highs and trades in a sustained downtrend, people will quite normally describe that stock as being in a bear phase or bear-market structure.

That does not mean the FTSE, S&P, Nasdaq, oil, gold, the moon and the village tombola all need to be in a bear market at the same time.

So no, the wider market did not need to be in a bear market for RR to have had a bearish technical phase.

Oil may have been the cannonball. The chart still shows where it hit the hull.

You really are behaving like the village 🤢🤡 slipping on the🍌

Retirment,

You’re again mixing up two different points.

No one said the entire market was in a bear market. The point was about RR’s own technical structure during that move. A stock can enter a correction, retracement, downtrend, or bear-phase structure even while the wider market is making new highs. That is basic market mechanics.

And yes, oil was a major catalyst. Nobody serious is denying that. But a catalyst explains why selling pressure appeared; technicals show where that selling was absorbed, where support held, and whether the structure broke or repaired.

That is exactly why Bollinger Bands, moving averages, Fibonacci retracements and support levels still matter.

They do not replace oil analysis. They show whether the oil-driven move is becoming structural damage or simply a sharp pullback inside an uptrend.

Saying “oil went up, RR went down” is an observation. It is not a full trading system.

A pullback in oil can be technically healthy if it holds key support, respects prior breakout levels, and buyers step back in. Those two things are not mutually exclusive.

So the actual point is simple:

Oil was the weather. The chart showed whether the ship was sinking or just taking spray over the bow.

If RR loses major support, the view changes. If RR holds support and recovers, the pullback was a reload.

That is not waffle > that is risk management.

Flyingdaleflyer, I concur with your sentiment. Q1 and Q2 this year saw dramatic share-price turbulence due to the Iran-USA war.

The Feb 23 high @1420 was followed by the March 30 low @1079, representing a bear-market move. Price has since made higher weekly highs on May 26 and a higher weekly low on May 18, while remaining firmly within the Bollinger Bands and without violating the weekly clouds.

The high of 1347.40 must be recovered or breached for a potential rise to continue from here. SAF markets have also benefited as a result.

Today's move of less than 5% was a very healthy reload/pullback.

The next attempt at 1300 would mark the 6th this year. > Let's go 💨🚢

(●'◡'●)

I had a very productive call with Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu, of Israel, and there will be no Troops going to Beirut, and any Troops that are on their way, have already been turned back. Likewise, through highly placed Representatives, I had a very good call with Hezbollah, and they agreed that all shooting will stop — That Israel will not attack them, and they will not attack Israel. President DONALD J. TRUMP.(Truth)

Making fresh all-time highs and nearing a breakout above 7600 (●'◡'●)

Latest zone: ~1258–1260p

RR has fallen from the 1339.95p masthead and landed almost perfectly on the 0.382 Fib deck at 1257.76p.

This is now the key tide line.

Overall, it's a sea of red

Hold 1258: healthy reload, bounce still alive.

Reclaim 1289: repair begins.

Reclaim 1300–1308: bulls back on the upper deck.

Back above 1325–1340: attack resumes.

Below deck:

Lose 1258: next stop 1232.

Lose 1232: deeper pullback to 1207.

Lose 1207: risk returns towards 1193 harbour wall.

Captain’s verdict: the ship has hit the 0.382 tide marker. Hold here, and she can reload. Lose it, and the crew prepares for 1232.

Aye, best keep it above the waterline, Admiral > the harbourmaster clearly has a delicate constitution and a very nervous whistle.

“Not so jolly skull-and-crossbones-ing” may still have the moderation gulls circling the mast, so I’d recommend we stick to safer naval offences: excessive grog, poor chart reading, premature lifeboat deployment, and shouting “she’s sinking” every time the bilge pump coughs.

As for the rear admiral, I’ll leave that rank firmly astern before the Admiralty confiscates the whole fleet.

Oo’ar, oo’ar indeed > but steady as she goes, before someone reports the ship’s cat for indecent meowing.

No, oil going up explains part of the move — it doesn’t magically explain the whole market structure.

‘The opening charge has cooled’ simply means the initial buying momentum faded after the bell. That can happen even while oil is rising because price action is driven by multiple levers: oil, futures, volume, risk appetite, profit-taking, news flow, and chart resistance.

So no, it isn’t ‘AI nonsense’ > it’s basic market observation. Oil is one signal. Price action is the scoreboard. Try reading both before firing the cannon.🤡🤡

RR remains bullish, but the opening charge has cooled.

The ship pushed into the 1330+ deck, then pulled back towards 1320. Bigger daily and weekly structure remains intact, with price still above the main moving-average convoy.

Key map

Above 1310–1312: Bulls remain on deck.

Above 1325–1330: momentum returns.

Above 1335: attack resumes.

Above 1350: route opens to 1370–1385.

Above 1385: 1400+ comes back into view.

Below deck:

Lose 1310: first warning.

Lose 1300: momentum cools.

Lose 1286–1275: deeper reload zone.

Lose 1250: breakout weakens.

Lose 1193: back into the fog.

Captain’s verdict: still bullish, but pausing after the charge. Hold 1310–1300, retake 1325–1330, then aim again for 1350.

* NB Retirment, remind Sick bags are stored in the seat pocket directly in front of you, alongside the safety information.🤢🍌

PGNS, My thinking too, and you beat me to it, if ever there was a way to buy LEAPS 😉

Retirment,

Price is ranging up/down like any other wave 🌊🤡

What is happening below the water surface:

"In the first stage of the negotiations, the Americans demanded the transfer of Iranian nuclear materials to the United States, but this request was not accepted"."In the latest version of the text sent by the United States, the issue of transferring or disposing of the materials is no longer discussed, and only phrases such as "determining the task", "the fate of the materials" or "resolving the issue of the materials" are mentioned.""We do not make any commitment to disposing or transferring nuclear materials to the United States. There are still differences regarding the Strait, which we emphasise must be governed by Iranian management."(Fars)

Fortissimo, in the same breadth as copper, is probably the new gold standard and should eventually be priced and revalued accordingly.

Https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7hx4gdlfamo

Not mutiny, old salt > more like the crew checking the weather gauge before deciding whether to reef the sails or order another round of grog.

The ship’s cat has not eaten the parrot either. It has merely put the noisy, feathered analyst on a short leash until the next RNS lands.

As for men jumping ship, that is always the way in rough water. Some prefer the lifeboat at the first creak of timber; others check whether the hull is actually breached or just making the usual AIM-market noises in a strong swell.

No one is pretending this is a luxury cruise. It is still a risky little vessel looking for a proper industrial tug. But until we know whether one is coming alongside, declaring the whole crew overboard feels less like navigation and more like shouting “shipwreck” from the pub window.

Oo’ar indeed > but let’s see who has actually left the deck and who is just hiding below with the rum.

Chaster68,

Quite right, shipmate > lines and charts it is.

Consider the deck scrubbed, the sextant polished, and the offending “rope” thrown overboard with suitable ceremony.

However, while you were inspecting the rigging terminology, the actual point appears to have sailed past the harbour: the chart still shows the levels, the lines still mark the risk, and the Captain is still navigating by structure rather than shouting “it might go up or down” into the fog.

But fair correction. I shall amend the log:

Above resistance: set more sail.

Below support: shorten the lines.

No chart: no voyage.

No risk plan: no clue.