Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
View from Bridge: Market consolidation is expected, with a potential downturn later this month and into May—Mid-to-late May bottom possible, followed by a summer rally.
CPI analysis: 2.6% now, potential rise to 3.2-3.7% in next 2 quarters due to "echo bounce" and geopolitical risks. Fed may respond with a surprise 0.25% rate hike instead of expected cuts.
Recession fears remain unfounded. Geopolitical tensions, oil prices, and droughts could push inflation and food prices higher.
Overall, the S&P 500 experienced losses across all sectors, with financials being the worst hit due to weakness in bank stocks. Real estate, materials, and healthcare sectors also saw significant declines, influenced by various market factors, including rising interest rates.
This week: continued market consolidation with S&P 500 around 5150.
Phillip... The response:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-middle-east-68737710
Weekly outlook: 12 April > SP500 1st week closed inside and above the previous week's low above the 5 EMA. On the daily TF the 5 EMA crossed below the 20 EMA with these mixed signals of either a short-term pullback or a larger corrective move currently on the horizon. For the Nasdaq100 the picture is unchanged with 3 inside weeks in a row and above the 5 EMA. A similar picture for Rocey inside the bar and counting 24 consecutive weeks of higher lows. The rainbow remains blue. 👀👍😉
For the S&P 500 to maintain an altitude of 24th weekly higher lows needs a close above today's 5193.36 and for Rocey that would be a true heading above £ 406.4 course towards £ 700 current ATR reading of about 20 Roger and out 👀 Happy Friday > https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hStkyNEjqbY
Nettles, I agree you also have my vote for £7 in 2025 at some point and expect to see £12 in 2027 yes I am serious no joke Captain Turbo Tufan's sailing plan is rather clear-cut which is set the compass to quadruple the SP by this time referenced on CMD Note RR has 4072 Engines in service now and 1632 on order. That should keep the flying chefs happy for a while. (Google: rolls-royce-Investor-presentation-march-2024.pdf for details) GLA DYOR IMOO
Wait here it is:
Avast, me hearties! Now listen close, ye scurvy landlubbers! Thar be a time on every voyage when the wee ones start yowlin' for their sick buckets. That be a sure sign the wind be pickin' up and the waves be gettin' a bit grumpy! Just like when them fancy folk at Jefferies be talkin' about these "whatever the weather" winners, like Rolls Royce, Glencore and Tesco. They be sayin' these land-ship fellas be sailin' smooth even in a storm, trouncin' their rivals and their pockets be lined with gold! Now that's a treasure map worth followin', wouldn't ye say? But remember, fair winds can turn foul quick, so keep one eye on the charts and one eye on yer own investments!
Rewrite in funny captain's words '' Hi cat friend when the passengers start asking for the sig bags that's when you know when she rolls meanwhile Rolls Royce, Glencore and Tesco were highlighted among several “whatever the weather” winners that are seen as enjoying multi-year sustainable advantages over rivals and upside to their shares, according to investment bank Jefferies''
Short-term two days of above-average volume selling pressure has appeared which has been absent since last year it looks like we might have some coiling action to unwind the SP turbulence which was likely caused by Mr Market's moves due to a higher-than-expected number of CPI printed today. Overall price remains above the low 4's and less than 4% intraday movement which is positive.
The SP has regained nearly approx 100% of its move since the 2014 Jan 6 highs and is visibly showing a clear double top formation on the tea leaves incoming data from Mr Market has propelled the SP to near ATH and is on standby for further directional moves a major symmetrical pullback to previous resistance turning to support at 370/380 would imply a correction in region 15% which could be some 50% greater than the last pullback in summer 2023 of some 10% alternatively a close above 444 would bring onboard a new unseen frontier of higher highs soon. always remember anything can happen enjoy the voyage.
Mr Market showed an inside week last week. Currently in a similar pattern with steady inside daily bars (5200 middle of the range 5140/5265) ahead of the CPI number coming out at 12:30 estimated y/y at 3.4% which may result in a potential change of direction retreat/pullback or continued higher highs depending on the readings all whilst the underlying volume has seen below average trading since early March.
If RR can close above resistance at the #4's i.e. 444 then it's back to rocking roll times let's get ready for the next sling shoot to the moon towards the magic cheese #£7 and beyond, which remains just the 1st stop-off point on a long space jump inspired increase in SP by Jules Verne and the technicals are in alignment on the 1-year charts time for a potential parabolic double the space move. IMOO DYOR GLA
Bav1975 agrees context is everything unless we see a movement over 5% It just markets normal noise where either the sell or buy side tries and get their positions closed out however bearing in mind Mr Market had a pause yesterday (inside daily bar) and the CPI is due out tomorrow.
Hi, They recently announced a significant investment plan of €41 billion by 2026. This focuses on renewable energy and grid modernization, aligning with the global push for clean energy [Iberdrola Strategic Plan 2024-2026]. The consensus estimate from analysts that cover the company price target is now 12.68 onward and upwards
Yes the copper price looks like it wants to climb towards 5 again where it was rejected back in 2021/22 a new fresh break out in copper prices and the SP becomes El Gordo onward and upwards. 😎
Mr Market (SP500) has risen for the past 23 consecutive weeks with higher lows it's only Tuesday with 4 trading days still to go is it too early to call IF this week it is time for a little retracement or maybe it is Turn around Tuesday?
Bigtimebilly > You're right, there's a seasonal trend in the stock market with historically better performance from September to April. But interestingly, election years seem to be somewhat separate from this seasonal pattern.
Studies have found:
Overall, election years tend to be positive for the stock market. Looking at historical data, the S&P 500 (a major stock market index) has on average gained around 7-11.6% in election years, which is equal to or slightly better than typical years [US News, BlackRock].
Performance might be even stronger in re-election years for presidents, with some studies suggesting an average gain of over 12% [U.S. News].
The second half of election years often see stronger gains compared to the first half [BlackRock].
So, while the September-April seasonality might hold true in general, election years appear to be a period where the market performs well regardless of the specific months.
As always things to keep in mind:
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Other factors like the economy, interest rates, and global events can significantly impact the stock market.
While election years themselves might not disrupt the seasonal trend, it's always wise to consider the broader economic picture when making investment decisions.
Yes closing in quickly now on the 444 targets 🤞