RE: Oil is extending its decline after the latest reports of a possible peace deal with Iran.29 May 2026 13:11
Retirment,
Ah, so the victory parade has begun because one sailor managed to tack with the wind and has now declared himself Admiral of the Fleet.
Well done on the trade. Seriously. Selling £13.06, buying back lower, and catching the move to £13.30 is a decent manoeuvre. But let’s not confuse one clean tack with mastering the entire Atlantic.
Rolls-Royce in Q1 and Q2 of 2026 has not exactly been sailing on a millpond. The share price has been thrown about by war headlines, oil spikes, peace-talk rumours, results-day repricing, buyback speculation, profit-taking, and every gust of macro wind blowing across the deck. One day the market is pricing fear, the next day relief, and the day after that it is back to chasing confirmation from the numbers.
Yes, oil matters. It has clearly been one of the biggest near-term crosswinds during this conflict. But oil is not the whole investment case, not the engine room, and certainly not the long-term compass for Rolls-Royce. Cash flow, margins, civil aerospace recovery, defence strength, debt reduction, buybacks and future optionality still steer the ship.
Trading the chop can add shares if done well. No argument there. But one successful swing in a turbulent market does not suddenly turn war headlines into a mechanical system. It is still headline risk, timing risk, execution risk, and a fair pinch of luck to wear a captain’s hat.
So, who is the clown now?
Probably the chap doing a lap of honour after catching one wave, while pretending he predicted the tide, the moon, the storm and the harbour master’s lunch break.
Enjoy the extra shares. I’ll stay focused on the voyage, not just the splash from one lucky oar.