RE: Sold2 Jan 2026 10:44
Stayingpatient,
I think that’s a thoughtful reflection, and you’ve articulated something many investors feel but don’t always express clearly.
The comment about a 25% gain “not being RR” while still holding a large position does highlight a very human tension: the desire to reconcile short-term expectations with long-term conviction. That tension is often amplified by daily share price movements, which can distort perspective if we allow them to anchor our thinking.
As you rightly point out, the share price itself offers no predictability or visibility. It is simply a snapshot of supply and demand at a particular moment in time. Where it does have value is as historical data—patterns that, when considered alongside fundamentals, sentiment, and broader context, can inform probability, not certainty. Markets never offer the latter.
The danger is extrapolation. A strong up day invites optimism that can morph into inevitability; a weak day invites doubt that can masquerade as insight. Both are narratives imposed on noise.
Your emphasis on a medium- to long-term horizon is, in my view, the key anchor here. Most enduring equity returns are earned not by forecasting the next 12 months, but by correctly identifying businesses positioned to benefit from durable, multi-year forces—and then allowing time to do the heavy lifting.
That’s where the discussion around valuation, “baked-in” good news, and leadership changes becomes genuinely interesting rather than decisive. Those debates test conviction, but they don’t invalidate the broader thesis. They are part of the ongoing assessment, not the conclusion.
The point about story is also well made. Humans are wired to respond to narrative—but the best investment stories are those that continue to be substantiated by execution, not just imagination. If RR’s story continues to convert long-term structural change into measurable outcomes, the market will eventually reflect that, regardless of short-term volatility.
In that sense, patience isn’t passive—it’s a deliberate strategy.
Here’s to 2026 being a year of clear thinking, disciplined positioning, and letting probabilities, rather than emotions, do the talking.
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