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A17

The charts are telling me the same thing they always do — probabilities, not promises.

£15 by the end of February was never a certainty; it was a scenario contingent on delivery, sentiment, and broader market conditions. Short-term price action doesn’t invalidate the longer-term structure, but it can delay it.

I’m watching confirmation, not guessing dates.

If the data supports it, the market will do the rest — if not, I adjust.

That’s how charts are meant to be used.

Retirment

A 7% pullback over two weeks doesn’t make a stock “overvalued” — it makes it normal after a multi-year rerate.

Lower highs/lows on a very short-term chart just says “digestion before results”, not thesis break. Calling failure before the next catalyst is impatience, not valuation.

If 70–100% of a portfolio is in one name, every pullback feels existential. That’s concentration risk, not RR misbehaving.

Mining ETFs flying in a commodity momentum phase proves one thing only: momentum works… until it doesn’t. That doesn’t invalidate long-cycle industrials with cash flow and capital returns — they just run on a different clock.

Paper losses never feel nice.

But two red weeks don’t undo a multi-year story.

Different assets. Different timelines. Same market.

Retirment

Markets doing what markets do over days or weeks doesn’t invalidate what a business is doing over years. Confusing the two is how people end up stressed about £0.07 moves and calling positions “stupid” after 48 hours.

Buying something and immediately worrying about being trapped for a month isn’t a valuation problem — it’s a time-horizon mismatch.

Mining, uranium, gold, silver — all fine trades. They’re cyclical momentum plays, not moral victories. They work brilliantly until they don’t, usually fast and without warning. That doesn’t make them wrong, it just makes them different tools for different objectives.

Calling RR “a dog” because it’s flat a few weeks into the year, after a multi-year rerating, while simultaneously saying “everything is priced in” is internally inconsistent. If everything were priced in, nothing would ever move — yet here we are talking about 30–50% sector moves.

M&S is a solid recovery story — agreed. RR is a long-cycle industry with different drivers, cash flows, and capital return mechanics. Comparing them week by week is entertainment, not analysis.

As for “no one getting rich unless they buy mining”: that sentence has appeared at every commodity peak in history.

Trade what suits your temperament. Invest what suits your conviction.

Just don’t confuse short-term price noise with long-term business value — that’s how good positions get abandoned and bad habits get reinforced.

Avast, Shareflyer! Best ye keep one weather eye on the Nettles logbook and stow some treasure below deck—Gold, Silver, and Copper are soaring like gulls on a stiff political and interest-rate wind. And while you’re at it… Don’t ye owe Nettles a hearty apology before ye walk the plank?

Retirment When the day comes that Turbo Tufan hands over the role of CEO, the transformed Rycey shall continue to stay airborne as it has been totally overhauled and redefined as a global powerhouse leader. The next major trajectories remain Narrow-body engines and SMR/AMR deliveries. IV 🙌🚀 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tx_9i5BpQs0

Ar5enal17 No problem waiting for results day — that’s where opinions meet reality.

Until then, dismissing an argument as “tosh” without engaging with it says more about the avoidance than the analysis.

The “fictional captain” bit is just a wrapper; the substance underneath is what matters.

We’ll let the numbers do the talking. Good night.

No issue with having a few drinks — happens to everyone.

I’ve got no problem with a few beers — that’s not the issue.

What is the issue with dismissing a viewpoint by blaming the pint rather than addressing the substance? If there’s a flaw in the logic, challenge it. If not, the beer count is irrelevant.

Let’s keep it about the argument, not the excuses.

After a few beers? Perfect conditions for market analysis.

Fear not — this fictional Captain never does predictions, only navigational estimates based on wind, tide, and the occasional mutiny. If it turns out to be tosh, I’ll happily log it in the ship’s journal.

End of February we’ll see whether it was rum-fuelled nonsense… or whether the compass was quietly pointing true all along. 🍻⚓

Arsenal17 Happy to refresh your memory, here goes;

''Question for the resident toilet cleaner: What comes first, SP500 hits a new ATH and/or RR hits a new ATH?''

Arsenal17: What a hypocrite, you have still not responded to my question 🤣

Arsenal17, what was your prediction for a simple question?

Observation:

SP500 finishing above 6910, and above the 10-min IKH and bouncing off the 150 EMA. With the HH/LH, the question is, are we now in for a Rycey Special Friday Turbo Take-off?

Aye — this be Trump old sea-chart, plain as day:

He sails in flying black flags and firing cannons to rattle the harbour.

Stirs the waves, rocks the other ship, makes ’em think the deal’s sinking.

Then he turns hard to windward, pretends he’ll sail clean away.

That’s when the other captain panics, grabs the rope, and begs him back aboard.

Only then does he lower the guns, take the better cargo, and strike the bargain —

before anyone’s found their sea legs again. 🏴‍☠️

Badland, the voyage remains on schedule. It's the wind direction and current that keep changing our course, one for the better, one for the worse, also more commonly known as flight turbulence.

Retirment,

Fair enough — then let’s strip away the nautical wallpaper and stick to plain English:

There is a company.

There are earnings, cash flow, order books, and guidance.

There is a valuation range that moves with execution, not calendar months.

£15 in February was never the claim — that’s a straw man people like to argue with when they’ve run out of numbers.

If the metaphors bore you, ignore them.

If the fundamentals bore you, challenge them.

But pretending there’s “nothing there” usually says more about the argument than the share.

A17 > This Captain doesn’t trade on tantrums or timelines.

Trump can shout at the horizon all he likes — I sail by numbers, contracts, and cash flow.

£15 isn’t a February party trick; it’s a destination.

If it docks early, fine. If it takes another tide, also fine.

Either way, the ship stays afloat… and the crew stays aboard. 🏴‍☠️

Careful — if we rename him Burrito, the market will start pricing in wrap-risk: everything inside looks bold, but once you unwrap it… It’s mostly reheated beans, a lot of fluff, and no actual substance until the receipt (RNS) shows up. 🌯📉

Question for the resident toilet cleaner: What comes first, SP500 hits a new ATH and/or RR hits a new ATH?

Taco time. This is a risk-off removal event. Donald Rolls back the tariffs related to Greenland following meeting with Nato.

Things tend to happen in the mid-teens/$20 😉