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Oldsid,

Heading towards the hourly 50 SMA average pullback above the IKH clouds

@iamhoping

👍🙌😎IV

Working its way through overhead supply @1296.50 once penetrated, clear blue skies lie in sight above 1300

''Hit 1,302 resistance 3 times today! How many times required this time?''

Well, the 6-hour time frame is still intact, just need the turbochargers to kick in, the 1320 are incoming.

''Hit 1,302 resistance 3 times today! How many times required this time?''

W

As mentioned to Trello earlier £ 13:20's incoming (measured move from low 10:22) GLA Enjoy the Voyage

JDS15,

Part2

4. The hypocrisy you’re sensing (and you’re right to sense it)

You’ve put your finger on a real behavioral issue:

Many investors overpay for growth stories

Then become hyper-sensitive to valuation in boring or industrial companies

Psychologically:

Growth stocks are forgiven for high P/Es (“the future is huge”)

Industrials are punished for any premium (“where’s the growth?”)

This isn’t always logical — it’s narrative-driven investing.

5. Why RR’s P/E might actually make sense

RR today is:

Recovering margins

Improving cash flow

Deleveraging

Benefiting from long-cycle aerospace demand

Becoming operationally stronger than its past reputation

If earnings are structurally improving, then a higher-than-historical P/E can be justified — especially if:

The “old RR” was mismanaged

The market is repricing quality, not just growth

So someone saying “RR’s P/E is too high” is often:

Anchored to past RR

Ignoring balance sheet repair and cash generation

Comparing it unfairly to its own troubled history rather than its future

6. The key takeaway

You’re essentially asking:

“Why is growth allowed to be expensive, but recovery isn’t?”

That’s a very sophisticated question, and the honest answer is:

Because markets reward stories as much as spreadsheets

And growth stories are easier to sell than turnaround stories

Sometimes the crowd is right.

Sometimes it’s inconsistent.

And sometimes — especially with companies like RR — that inconsistency creates opportunity.

End

JDS15,

You’re not a simpleton at all — you’re noticing a very real inconsistency that comes up all the time in markets. The short answer is: people are often talking past each other about why a P/E is high, not just that it is high.

Let’s break it down cleanly.

1. P/E is not “high” or “low” in isolation

A P/E ratio only makes sense relative to expectations:

P/E

≈

Growth

+

Stability

+

Risk

+

Capital intensity

P/E≈Growth+Stability+Risk+Capital intensity

So two stocks can have wildly different P/Es and both be rationally priced — or irrationally priced — for different reasons.

2. Why people tolerate huge P/Es in Nvidia & tech

High-growth tech stocks (like Nvidia) are often valued on future earnings, not current ones.

Investors are implicitly saying:

Earnings today are small relative to what’s coming

Margins may expand dramatically

The company may dominate a massive, growing market

Capital-light, scalable business model

So when Nvidia trades at a very high P/E, the market is effectively saying:

“We don’t care about this year’s earnings — we’re paying for what earnings might look like 5–10 years from now.”

That doesn’t mean they’re right — just that the story is growth-driven, not yield-driven.

3. Why Rolls-Royce (RR) gets judged differently

Rolls-Royce is seen as:

Cyclical

Capital intensive

Operationally complex

Historically volatile (near-death experience not long ago)

Lower long-term growth ceiling

So value-oriented investors look at RR and think:

Earnings are more “here and now”

Growth will likely be moderate, not exponential

Cash flows are more predictable but less scalable

That leads them to say:

“If growth is limited, I want a lower P/E to compensate.”

In other words, they’re applying a value lens to RR and a growth lens to Nvidia — even if they don’t explicitly say so.

(TBC in Part 2)

Aye aye, Bav1975! ☠️⚓

Indeed, our Rycey has hoisted the sails and made a clean getaway from the 1125–1175x3 waters, never once glancing back to kiss the hourly 50 EMA goodbye. No sir—she’s flying high above the Ichimoku clouds like a proud galleon with a stiff tailwind. Even more convincing, we had that fine triple crossing of the 50/150/200 MAs back at 1075, which was the ceremonial cannon blast that kicked off the early-to-mid December Santa Rally. 🎅📈

Now then, let’s keep our spyglass fixed on January seas before we start charting the treacherous waters of February’s results day or predicting where the winds of 2026 might carry us by year’s end. For now, this old captain is quietly hoping—and perhaps whispering to the market gods—for a smooth, respectable docking at the ports of £15 and £16, should we be fortunate enough to land at either destination. 🏴‍☠️ GLA Enjoy The Voyage

Trello £ 13:20's incoming (measured move from low 10:22)

Arsenal17 Thanks for the heads-up; Enjoying the dividends and the outperformance for the medium to long term.

To be honest, it feels like travelling on a 757 waiting for the SMR burners to kick in without the motion sickness. 😉

Arsenal17, unlike you bathing at 27 degrees in Singapore, I am long and now strongly committed @ 103%.

The latest swing position initiated @ 1151.75, aiming for the north star @ 1500 by Feb 26 🙌IV AGW

Get onboard the 757

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XgoWtKSSchQ

Got to be lucky for some 13 springs to mind soon!

The small print reads as follows:

''Trump also said the RTX Corp. would no longer be allowed to obtain government contracts unless it invested heavily in building more defence factories and equipment and ended stock buybacks. RTX, formerly known as Raytheon, is one of the largest suppliers of aircraft engines and missiles to the Pentagon. Trump did not make clear who would replace the Arlington-based defence giant’s production.''

I think you’ve actually answered your own question with the rollercoaster analogy. The “non-linear” comment from Tufan was never about one violent drop — it was about periods of digestion. We’ve gone from recovery to disbelief, to acceptance, to valuation anxiety. That’s not a breakdown in the story, it’s the market catching its breath.

Tariffs may well have felt like the downward slope, but structurally nothing changed: cash, margins and order book all remained intact. That’s noise, not gravity.

As for selling the day before and doubling back in — that works brilliantly right up until the one time it doesn’t. RR has a habit of repricing before results when sentiment shifts, not after the numbers are in. Meeting targets provides the “haven”; beating them moves the chain another notch up.

I’d say the click-clack you’re hearing isn’t the drop — it’s the ratchet. And if I have messed with your head, I’ll gladly accept the pint 🍺 — but only after results.

TJBH,

Fair questions. The short answer is that buybacks and short-term SP reactions don’t always tell the same story. The £200m buyback suggests the board sees value at these levels and has confidence in medium-term cash generation — not necessarily that February guidance will be smashed. As for the SP, a 5% lift is plausible if guidance is met and the market believes the trajectory beyond FY25 is intact. Miss the narrative, even by a whisker, and the reaction can be muted or worse. The colly wobbles usually come from trying to trade the print rather than the strategy — RR tends to reward patience more than prediction.

Nettles,

The countdown to February 26th has commenced.

The legendary Jesse Livermore liked to buy a stock if other companies in the same industry were also showing strength.

On Tuesday, 17 of 113 stocks at ATHs were from the Aerospace and Defence industries, more than any other industry. 🙌IV

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FOt3oQ_k008

Trello,

Next target $18:00

When Tauro gets permitted, we have a mega El Gordo share price increase well into the teens

Chaster68, the compass remark relates to the utterly vague and incomprehensible resistance of Shareflyer to give a straightforward and honest answer.

I can provide some further background and evidence below from the last competition in which he did the same thing:

I trust and hope you get the idea what I am talking about; if not, say the world.

+++

ShareFlyer

Captain’s Log

Who be daft enough to call a range a forecast? A prediction be a single shot from the cannon, not scatter-fire of grape and shrapnel. “£12–12.25” be no call at all — ‘tis fence-sitting in calm waters. Either ye nail yer colours to £12.00 or hoist ‘em at £12.25, but don’t be hiding in a 25-penny fog bank pretendin’ ye’ve charted the stars.

On this deck, the rule be clear: one number, one target. Else ye’ll be walking the plank for wastin’ the crew’s time with wishy-washy ranges when the battle cries for precision. 🙌🤞IV