Member Info for Svend

Kendalsc, That sounds like a very sensible and balanced approach. Taking some off the table can give peace of mind, while keeping a meaningful holding allows you to stay invested in the longer-term story over the next few years. Ultimately, it comes down to what helps you sleep well at night and fits your personal plans — there’s nothing wrong with blending discipline today with patience for the future.

“Once helium is flowing, valuation becomes arithmetic, not opinion.”

Galactica■Only Valuation Bridge

Scenario Helium Price (US$/Mcf) EBITDA (US$m) Implied EV (US$m) Captain’s Take

Bear 45 15 60 Downside protected

Base 70 25 150 Credible rerate

Bull 150 40+ 320+ Market wakes up

What This Ignores (By Design)

• Southern Rukwa upside

• Additional well tie■ins beyond base case

• Long■term contract price escalation

• CO■ by■product revenue

Captain’s Closing Line

The floor appears when EBITDA prints. The ceiling rises with execution — not chatter.

As dividends rise, the shareholder register fills with larger, long-horizon institutions, tightening the grip on available stock and keeping demand well-supported. That steady ballast is in place ahead of the real propulsion phase — when SMRs come online, and UltraFan clears the runway, the engines spool up, and the ship moves decisively into overdrive.

The consensus price target is now 10% higher, at 1266.33, based on combined estimates from all analysts covering the stock.

Rycey has departed from the gate, completed taxiing, took off in the same fashion that Mr Market (SP500) prints an inverted head and shoulders pattern, and Santa is coming to town. Enjoy the Festivities ahead. & Enjoy the Voyage GLA

Only 330 more to get to £15.00 🙌IV

JDS15,

China is a strong following wind — helpful, welcome, but the ship sails just fine without relying on it.

Share Flyer RR would probably fly sky high if Reform were NOT involved; let RR spread their wings on their own, and with true precision, and they will always find a way to land the company on safe ground and in safe hands, regardless of politics on either side, as in the end of the day it's about national security that eventually counts. If you can muster an argument, please say so, as so far you have just been making pointless mutterings.

Confluence

''Problem with Labour - no common sense. Problem with Tories, can’t trust them.''

I agree, but dismissing all candidates as untrustworthy is much like ignoring red lights — consequences tend to arrive on schedule. A Thatcher 2.0 upgrade would probably resolve a few issues briskly.

That confluence says it all — a bridge crew repeatedly riddling their own hull with machine-gun fire, then wondering why the ship won’t float.

Today is actually exactly the date when you, according to the statistics, should buy groceries if you believe that history repeats itself.

It may seem strange to buy up while the stock market corrects a bit, but if things go as "usual'', then the US market will actually correct and rise over Christmas, and into early January.

The phenomenon is called the Santa Claus rally, and since the year 2000 and until today, the hit rate has been as much as 88% when buying the large American S&P500 index, which mirrors a collection of the largest American stocks.

Tests show that the best result occurs if you buy during the day today, December 18 (for example, tonight), and sell your position again on January 14. If you do exactly this, you will only have lost 2 out of 17 trades. The exact dates may vary slightly depending on which strategy you follow, but the trend is the same across strategies – namely, that the market is generally increasing during the period.

The only requirement is that on December 18, the market must be above a daily moving average of 200 days. The market is so plentiful this year. At least for the time being.

The method has worked since 1929, and in the past 25 years, it has even been extra good with only two losing trades.

Of course, there is NEVER a guarantee that history will repeat itself. You have to be 100% aware of this when you follow a historical strategy.

DYOR

No worries at all — and no offence taken.

There’s a difference between being naïve and choosing not to jump to conclusions without hard evidence. I’m comfortable with that line, and it’s served me well over the years. Markets are strange enough without needing extra drama layered on top.

All the best to you, and to your pal. If you’re stepping away, fair winds — and if you’re still holding, I hope the investment does exactly what you expect it to.

Iamhopping

I’d never dismiss the possibility of market gamesmanship — anyone who’s watched order flow around the US open knows it can get lively. But I’m always a bit cautious when conclusions are implied rather than evidenced.

If something “unusual” is happening, it should eventually show up in hard data: persistent volume anomalies, repeatable price behaviour at known liquidity windows, divergence between tape and fundamentals, or a structural change in ownership. Otherwise, it risks becoming an all-purpose explanation for perfectly ordinary market mechanics — profit-taking, hedging, index flows, or simple rotation.

Markets can be opaque without being conspiratorial. I’m happy to be convinced — I just prefer my convictions backed by patterns you can measure, not mysteries you’re asked to take on trust.

Badland, who knows if and when Santa comes this year, in any event, the new BB starts on the 2nd of January

Subdued Volume, only 43% of the average daily volume traded today

Sparkythecat,

A fair question — and a sensible one to ask before the crowd arrives.

I don’t screen for “stories” or thematic hype. I look for evidence of transition — companies moving from optionality to execution. The process is fairly systematic:

1) Balance sheet first, always

Early growth only matters if the company can survive long enough to realise it. I look for manageable debt, improving net cash trends, and funding that supports development rather than simply plugging holes.

2) Operational inflection points

I focus on change, not absolute size:

first meaningful production or revenue step-changes in grades, recoveries, or unit costs

capacity expansions that are already funded, regulatory or permitting milestones that materially de-risk the asset

These are the moments where the risk profile shifts — often before valuation catches up.

3) Cash generation > forecasts

I place far more weight on actual cash flow trends than broker models. Even modest, early free cash flow can completely re-rate a small cap if it proves the business model works.

4) Management behaviour, not promises. I watch what management do, not what they say: capital discipline, dilution history, delivery against timelines, and whether guidance quietly tightens rather than constantly resets.

5) Market neglect

The most attractive early-stage growth often sits in that awkward zone where:

Institutions can’t yet buy in size

Retail hasn’t noticed

Liquidity is thin but improving

That’s usually where mispricing lives.

6) Relative comparison, not isolation

Finally, I benchmark against peers that are one or two years further along the curve. If similar assets are re-rated sharply after hitting certain milestones, that provides a useful roadmap for what the market may eventually pay for.

In short, I’m not trying to predict the next fashionable name — I’m trying to identify when the risk has already fallen, but the price hasn’t yet adjusted. AAZ and ATYM simply happen to tick several of those boxes at the moment.

Quite right — no ropes, no rigging… just a steady course and a good lookout.

And agreed, having Puddycat back aboard definitely improves the navigation. Every good ship needs its cat to keep order on deck.

Nettles, Much appreciated — and likewise. It’s good to have solid people around, especially when markets (and life) throw a few rocks our way.

As for backing the Captain, I’ll happily settle for steady hands rather than heroics — a bit like AAZ, ATYM and Solidcore really: not much noise, just quietly getting on with the job and letting the assets do the talking over time.

Good to have you back in the mix, and glad things are moving onto a firmer footing.

Nettles, That’s very kind of you — I appreciate the words and the support, particularly given everything you’ve been dealing with yourself.

It’s genuinely good to have you back aboard, and I’m glad things are settling on a more even keel. No need for any rope-pulling or love-athons — just good people, good conversations, and a bit of perspective goes a long way.

Wishing you well, and thank you again.

At least we passed the crossing @ 1111.11 and now firmly heading up towards 1125