RE: Wake up...8 Dec 2025 12:52
Jds15,
⚓ CAPTAIN’S RR-SMR TIMELINE (Realistic, Not Political Fairy Dust)
1️⃣ GDA Completion (UK Design Approval)
Where we are: Deep into GDA Step 3
What’s left: Step 4 (final assessment), Statement of Design Acceptability
Realistic completion: Late 2026 – Mid 2027
This is the big gate. No regulator = no shovels.
2️⃣ First UK Site Contract Signed
Government selection is done in principle, but we still wait for the actual contract signature.
Earliest realistic: 2026
More likely: 2027
(Politics, budgeting, and civil service cycles slow this down — not RR.)
3️⃣ FOAK Construction Start (First Concrete)
Once the design is approved and the site contract is signed, RR can actually start building.
Earliest: 2028
Likely: 2028–2029
RR’s modular factory model means physical build is not the bottleneck — paperwork is.
4️⃣ FOAK Build Duration
RR claims 4 years. Historically SMRs deliver:
3.5–4.5 years when the supply chain is ready
Add time for testing + commissioning
So:
First power earliest: 2031
More conservative: 2032
5️⃣ Full Power & Certification
2032–2033 for commercial operation
This is the moment when global utilities stop “talking” and start ordering.
6️⃣ Orders Scaling to 50+ Units
This is what you care about — the orderbook explosion.
Once the FOAK proves cost and output, everything changes.
UK will take 10–16 units
Europe wants energy security
Data centres and hydrogen projects need baseload
US regulatory alignment accelerates export
Orderbook hits 50+ units:
Conservative: 2033–2034
Aggressive (if geopolitics + energy crisis align): 2031–2032
After the FOAK proves itself, RR goes from pilot → industrial franchise.
🧭 CAPTAIN’S SUMMARY
If the winds stay favourable:
2027 — Full design approval
2028 — First construction
2031/32 — First power
2032/33 — The global orderbook goes into overdrive
2033/34 — 50+ confirmed SMRs becomes realistic
This is the correct timeline under real-world regulatory physics — not PR.