RE: Re: Namibia Licence1 Jul 2025 22:22
Hey Klein,
My approach is risk based assessments. The input being RNS's and what the board say and display (presentations or websites).
The risk level being based on accuracy of information, likely hood of achivement or not achieving (based on historical precedence industry or company.
My mistake was not doing enough research on company history and believing in the the companies official statements RNS's.
The company could be low on cash runway but a good product coupled with a reliable managment team can generally secure financing.
I started to realise that the presented information was not reliable, that the managment team history was less than favourable, that left the product, gas prices at the time were very much on the ascendancy and local demand excellent.
My first crack was the lack of flow testing during the Stena Don drilling campaign, the second was the rapid increase in share placings, followed there after by the slight of hand on O&G raised funding into secondary pillars, then there was G&A costs vs actual investment into company development cost and the inability to raise third party financing I.e. over reliance on share placing. My theory being AP history with creditors, they outed him from Petra Mining.
The share placing when coupled with the share incentives helped negated the dilution effects on BODs investments.
My exist was going to be the farm in deal they went for, if I could break even I was out.
The deal was that bad and the reintroduction of risk obvious to all, especially the O&G market. I also questioned Energean's ability to finance the deal they brought into due to the financing structure at the time. Several on here at the time only saw continued pessimism...to me it was use of risk assessment.
That Energean announced the sale of some assets was good to hear as it adjusted thier Moody rating and allowed them to borrow sufficient amounts after paying off old debt and negotiating more/ different terms. Just what lenders/ creditors like.
The farm in though was so bad as stated via new risk, IF in the farm in they had actially secured building Anchois and left the size of the development being dependent on A3, would have been a very very different reception from the market.
The market saw what the BoDs had done and exited accordingly but to compound it with only one drill was very illuminating, in that it was all or nothing. One of the most bizarre farm in deals I have seen.
The price dropped so much it was obvious to all, that AP stated it did not matter about the results of A3 was truly astonishingly, but maybe he and Energean knew better and he was reassuring us according to that knowledge. Well he was either lying, told a lie or really ignorant to the risk???? You decide because he is not going to tell us. That sums up Chariot O&G team in my opinion.
I have been involved in Subses IRM 5 yr contracts that were worth $1.3 billion and we watched every dollar!
Thes guys are real amateurs.
The ma