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A really interesting part of the Arden note:

The extension of the tax until 2028 should also allow all of the CAPEX spent on at least the initial Buchan element of the GBA project (which includes the bulk of overall project spending) to qualify for relief against the windfall tax, as opposed to any of this falling outside the windfall tax period. The changes do represent additional fiscal instability for UK oil and gas, though this instability is already well established, and to some extent anticipated by operators, in our view.

Do your own research !!

Are you sticking Dick?

Yep - they need to do something to increase their shareholder value… eg buy Jog, or farm in..

https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/news/2022/11/09/energy-windfall-taxes-where-to-from-here/

Let's hope common sense (sadly not that common) prevails!

In my opinion

https://on.ft.com/3T9S7Xv

Latest from FT on Ithaca IPO (c. 1 hour ago). Note comment on fully valued... adding capacity (e.g. GBA) will lift the price, and would be an early stage win for the company post IPO .. acknowledging their financing of debt..

DYOR

https://*********************/companies/uk/oil-gas-integrated/chariot-limited/research/auctus-advisors/chariot-limited-aim-char-meeting-with-management-operations-on-track/

Any chance that this makes Morocco and Chariot more interesting for Total ?

Good outline Greener

My money is that interested parties are going to wait for the latest November government update mid month. If they change the investment relief on the WFT then that’s a risk.

The timing might actually coincide well with Ithaca wanting to deliver a quick positive update post ipo to give the share price a kick..

Interesting month ahead

In my opinion…

You probably couldn't ask for a better investment than Chariot given this.. Gas for the short/medium term (Quote below : Gas Flat following a peak in 2030 - so still a lot!) with both renewable power and Green Hydrogen in the pipeline and growing in scale and potential...

The FT ran a similar article last week .. the bit that caught my eye was the assumption that today's Fossil Fuel majors could use their substantial current profits to acquire renewable energy plays to accelerate clean energy growth...

To broadly quote Adonis.. 'Chariot has something for everyone!'

Watch this space...

IMHO

Love this bit...

Pursue value accretive acquisitions, consolidating the UK North Sea

· Ithaca Energy intends to continue employing a disciplined approach to evaluating inorganic growth opportunities.

· Ithaca Energy believes that the UKCS offers various consolidation opportunities through which the Group can continue delivering strategic, high-quality acquisitions which can further enhance its reserves base and maintain the longevity of its business model.

· Oil majors and larger international oil and gas players are increasingly reallocating capital into new energies to achieve their ESG targets and also prioritising other regions as they look to satisfy reducing corporate production targets.

· Ithaca Energy believes that there are now few independent operators, of both operational and financial strength and supported by proven M&A execution capabilities and integration expertise, focused on the UK North Sea which can acquire assets from these players.

· Ithaca Energy believes the balance between the availability of UKCS acquisition opportunities and competition from other operators has moved in the Company's favour and that it is strongly positioned to continue to lead consolidation due to basin expertise, execution capabilities and a strong financial position.

Will be interesting to see how many companies want this (farmout or to quote Simon Thompson, alternatively a ‘major liquidity event’ You would think quite a few would want to play here .. it’s the last sizeable asset left that’s ready to go.. Ithaca have gobbled the other two with the Siccar Point acquisition… Competition could be pretty tense here and force a bid… Producing companies will want to use their tax credit..

Interesting few weeks ahead…

IMHO

https://masterinvestor.co.uk/evil-diaries/evil-diaries-blanching-at-debt/

Yep - Including stating that WH Ireland, Arden and Finn Capp with forecasts on 720, 700 and 572 are potentially under cooking if there is a major liquidity event!

https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/ideas/2022/09/22/poised-to-hit-pay-dirt/

He actually made that comment at the AGM. I can’t recall the exact words, but to the effect of ‘we’re not going to give this away’. He had earlier referenced he believed each pillar could be a billion £ business. I got a real sense they are determined to realise a lot for this one way or another. They know they need to attract foreign investment in shares. One guy had encouraged them to get a hedge fund involved (medium term outlook etc) otherwise they run the risk of an activist investor involved who might push to separate the Green and renewable pillars from the gas business to maximise value..

Two points on this seemed clear

I) They won’t less this go cheaply
II) They know they need to attract fund investment (in the shares), and this is likely of international origin

DYOR/IMHO

Thanks for the welcome, and no - I’m genuinely new. Been in for about a year but haven’t posted. I went because I wanted to get a feel for the board and their confidence in the plan and how confident they were. ( and had someone not beaten me to it I would have asked the question on the share price disconnect).

It was a worthwhile trip. I would say the Adonis permanent CEO piece felt important.. someone suggested they RNS it as it screams confidence . That bit made me smile..

There was some back and forth at the AGM on precisely this question with one of the analysts (?) probing the point of why there was such a large gap between market cap and opportunity value.

The consensus seemed to be :

I) events need to actually crystallise : gas sales agreement (they are negotiating now) farmout - thorough an accretive partner. Chariot made clear they will only deal with a value accretive partner that brings something they dont. - On farm out they apparently had a queue.. and Debt funding needs confirmation (at least 2 Moroccan banks have confirmed they will cover the whole 70 percent that isn’t equity - ie famouf ).

II) Further fund raising then becomes clear at this stage, and should confirm the CHAR view that they will take a view at FID.The logic being by then it’s worth a lot more and fundraising actual drives a market cap lift even with dilution because it’s an enabler..

III) They need to get to FID (targeting beginning next year).

They talked about needing to broaden the number of institutions and recognised that would need to be outside the UK. You would think a devalued currency makes foreign investment attractive.

There was also commentary that they had had a lot of investor interest in the renewable power business and green hydrogen, but the Gas pillar was precluding a number of institutions from investing.

My sense on this was the mood may change, as more investors recognise fossil fuels are necessary to accelerate renewable / hydrogen investment

The conclusion of the main analyst (?) who spoke was that it was a combination of these things..

The theme was consistent though.. they are confident.. the key triggers are lining up.. it’s just a matter of time

DYOR - but my take on things is we’re in a good place. They actually said that ‘they’d had a good year, they believe this one will be better!’ Watch this space….

I’m definitely in

IMHO/ DYOR

Of further note, Adonis is also permanent CEO, no longer acting!

They were very tight lipped on this at the AGM yesterday, commenting they were right in the middle of highly sensitive negotiations. There was a reference to some ‘spot’ pricing and some longer term..

The other point of note was that multiple Moroccan banks have offered the full 70 percent funding.. with the balance likely to come through equity (the right partner)

You sense this is just about patience.. body language wise they were both calm and confident yesterday..

The final point was clarity that there was no intention to raise further funds until FID at earliest ...

DYOR