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Good post DU

My money is the day after the floor gets announced.. I am going for next week (Wednesday or Thursday)

DYOR

They have to believe they have a deal that is completable, otherwise they would have to have RNS’d by now if they are nowhere near..

I feel oddly optimistic about this week… and next..

DYOR

Given the further uncertainty this creates (will they introduce a floor/remove the incentive?), I dont see anyway in which they can make the deadline

Short of being given a heads up (and maybe that is what happens), surely any producer is going to wait until there is clarity here?

DYOR

I do wonder if they have always had a backup in their pocket of a buyout…hence the narrative all went through the regulator and the NSTA approved the extensions .. ..

DYOR

I'm still backing the Ithaca chaps!

DYOR

So no floor, and still talk of a floor in the future..

Were the BOD waiting to make sure no nasty surprises today before the buyer/farminee agreed? Were they waiting on a producer (like Harbour) that was hoping their PR might spur on Hunt to act today? Or were they praying that a floor was introduced as it was the last roll of the dice.. with the only deal in town conditional upon it? Or did they have multiple choices, the best of which was linked to a floor? Or.. the list goes on.....

My money is on a buyout.. Harbour or Ithaca.... But I suspect this wasnt their first choice... WDIK ?!?

Not long to wait now, at least until we get the next instalment of the drama ..

DYOR

That’s a good counter Greener!

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/489940/hunt-considers-limiting-uk-energy-profits-tax-when-prices-fall/

The worry is that this goes on and on.. and the producers wait to commit capital for a longer period until they strong arm the government into embedding the floor..

Hopefully I’m wrong!

DYOR

https://www.upstreamonline.com/field-development/chariot-poised-to-receive-bids-on-debut-moroccan-offshore-gas-project/2-1-1416934

Key extract

The Chancellor Jeremy Hunt will deliver his fiscal update next week, and there’s a degree of optimism he may announce some changes to the EPL to make it more palatable.

DYOR

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/488977/energy-economist-accuses-harbour-of-fancy-accounting-to-get-headlines/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Energy%20Voice%20-%20Daily%20Newsletter%202023-03-10&utm_term=Energy%20Voice%20-%20Newsletter

Clearly trying to send message to the gov, which we know. Helpful to see the context

DYOR

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/488428/harbour-energy-forecast-2022-profits/

Note extract on Harbour needing assets to offset EPL

DYOR

Harbour energy updating the market on Thursday.. Budget next week, Ithaca updating toward end of month.. All need a good news story..

DYOR

Extract at the bottom from last week

Hard to imagine that one or more of Ithaca, Harbour or Serica wont be involved here..

There 15th is now rapidly approaching.. as are their respective financial updates where investors will be seeking good news..

Harbour goes first next week (9th)..

DYOR

Extract
---------
Ithaca Energy (ITH) picked an interesting time to come back to public life. Its first five months since November's initial public offering (IPO) have seen oil and gas prices drop at the same time as the UK government ramped up its energy profits levy (EPL).

As a result, the company's share price is down a quarter from its IPO price of 250p, a drop similar to those sustained by other North Sea-exposed companies like Harbour Energy (HBR) and Serica Energy (SQZ) over the same period.

Executive chair Gilad Myerson told Investors’ Chronicle the EPL had taken the air out of the sector even with the government calling for greater domestic oil and gas supply. “Since the listing, we’ve faced quite some headwinds coming from the UK government,” he said, adding that Ithaca was “very committed” to developing its assets and to the North Sea specifically.

Brilliant :-)

The difference a day makes :-)

The positive for me is that there is deal making activity .. ahead of the budget .. producing (acquiring) businesses are clearly believing that their EPL incentive is alive and well - perhaps with a floor on the horizon.. if the government have given sufficient reassurances then we may not have to wait until the 15th..

DYOR

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/west-of-shetland/487051/viaro-production-assets-north-sea/

Still activity taking place.. alongside everyone screaming about the EPL to the government and calling for a floor.. all roads lead to the 15th and just beyond ?!?

DYOR

James. Nice try from a provocation perspective, but I'm not taking the bait.

For clarity though - I know everything that's in the public domain (and I spend a serious amount of time reading that), and that's it I'm afraid! Sorry to disappoint ... The rest is a judgement call based on fundamentals and personal life experience. I know something about the importance of reputations though, and the difference credible management can make. The Ithaca crew tick these boxes in my head, and are the primary reason why I continued to build a larger stake over the last 12 months..

My investment is still not as grand as yours though.. ;-)

DYOR

*I suspect they have joined for the same reason we have all invested. Material capital upside in the shares!

James. I'm not going to comment on AB, but the former Ithaca guys including the relatively new chair in his first appointment as Chair (Les Thomas) have outstanding reputations, in reality amongst the best of any active directors in the North Sea. You can't seriously think they are in it for the salary! It's frustrating to even read this BS to be honest (I dont like the slide any more than you do, but cut the noise!) . It takes decades of blood, sweat and tears to build the reputations they have. They're not about to throw this away by ignoring the rules that govern the casino that we've all invested in (AIM). None of them are done yet, and it needs to go well for them to get the next gig. Les have convinced the others to come, not AB. It will have been a conviction play for all of them!

We are either waiting for just after the 15th, or someone's year end update. DU is right, if they dont have something seriously advanced they would have had to RNS by now as we're too close to the end of Q1 to create something new. The rules are clear, even those governing AIM..

I would seriously prefer a T/O and cannot get my head around why you would allow JOG to stay in as an interested producer. Buy it, and share the load with someone else - yes, keep JOG in? Given the 75% you have to pay in tax, why would you? JOG management however, with an eye on careers and future glory (not salary), will likely favour staying in.. I suspect their is some potential conflict here throughout the process..

Dont forget though, the incentive for all former Ithaca bods and ultimately AB is the share price - it's so much more material than their earnings (even at existing well paid levels!). They could get a bigger salary somewhere else (Ithaca). I suspect they have joined

They must have a plan for this month that they think is seriously viable - otherwise they should have called it already!

DYOR, but I also think this will be ok....