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I assume UBS may still be offloading?

Dyor

Https://masterinvestor.co.uk/evil-diaries/evil-diaries-be-careful-what-you-wish-for/

Jog tipped again!! Reference to Malcy and Simon T at the IC

Dyor

There aren't exactly a ridiculous amount of transactions going through.. I suspect someone is still selling and we are yet to attract meaningful institutions (and therefore very little buying) due to the lack of deal formality and the certainty of a second farmout partner...

WHI's take on H2 around demand picking up also interesting...

Sit tight - IMHO, news flow due short to medium term and a useful 6 months ahead..

For interest...

https://theconversation.com/keir-starmer-hasnt-really-called-time-on-north-sea-oil-and-gas-heres-why-207091

Yes

As expected JOG has received confirmation that approvals have been given for both P2498 and P2170 for an extension and assignment of a 50% WI to NEO respectively. The companies are clearly completing the final condition precedent which moves things on further.

After that the FDP should be underway ready for next year and to me the GBA project looks to be one of the finest potential developments in the North Sea, it will give JOG a potential of significant upside and therefore my TP remains at £10.

On the topic, hopefully the formal confirmation in June opens the doors for institutions, DU..... Tempus omnia revelat

Farm-out approval and licence extension keeps GBA on track Good news for JOG, which has received approval for its recent GBA farm-out from the regulator, with the deal expected to complete later this month. It has also received an extension to the Buchan licence to allow sufficient time to compile the Field Development Plan for submission in H1 2024. This will come as welcome relief to investors given the negative political headlines surrounding the North Sea lately, and keeps the project on track for sanction ahead of the next election.

DYOR

Read the headline.. Labour confirming that they would support Rosebank and licences issued in the near future ..

Further derisking for Jog (given they already have the licences and a confirmed extension to support FID)

Dyor

Https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/506896/starmer-oil-and-gas-will-be-part-of-economy-for-decades-to-come/

Hence the risk logic - read the note! Also see the analysts forecasts

I think we would all be happy with £5 at the moment!

IMHO

As a comparison, Zeus (formerly Arden) think £7.03 risked and £9.52 un-risked.. WH Ireland at £6.84 fair value estimate with a full success case of £10.44 (Looking at their data table, I think ?!?) and Finn Cap £6.60. All numbers are post the NEO farmout..

DYOR

Tricky question... Depends on the Windfall tax, whether there is a floor introduced and the belief in the long term oil price (the last two are obviously interrelated).

The project had an NPV of something like $4bn before the Windfall tax was introduced. If you apply a risk factor of sorts (extraction dilution, certainty of prospects, etc) and then apply windfall tax throughout I think you end up with somewhere around $1-1.5bn NPV. That did however have a high capital cost, which will now likely be lower if they use an FPSO, or tieback, etc.

Say Jog own 25% of this after the second farmout, so $1.25bn x 25% = $300m or £250m GBP, adjusted for shares not currently issued.. I would think you're into a range of £6-£8?

IMHO

Malcy is still quoting that now at £1 (e.g. the 10 bagger), I think the original quote was from Julian Maurice-Williams in a Proactive Interview about 12-18 months ago..

https://www.malcysblog.com/2023/05/oil-price-iog-chariot-zephyr-arrow-sdx-longboat-hurricane-ptal-eme-angus-and-finally/

DYOR

My read on this is that institutions aren't buying until the FO is agreed (especially given the current Labour rhetoric). I had wondered if there was anticipation of the NTSA delaying approvals relating to the conditions precedent, although that doesn't really make sense given the last RNS

I cant help but think that JOG is a sitting duck (in a good way) when the second farm-out occurs. NEO will hold the licences, and may feel that with a second farm-out partner in play that it's simply cheaper to buy JOG out at that time.. especially as JOG will be contributing little at that stage ..

I'm sitting tight...

DYOR/IMHO

Https://www.oilreviewafrica.com/exploration/industry/companies-like-chariot-bp-to-begin-hydrogen-projects-in-mauritania

Https://energycapitalpower.com/chariot-and-total-erens-project-nour-a-gateway-for-green-hydrogen-in-mauritania/

IMHO it becomes significantly more investable for institutions from this point (e.g. end of June). I'm pretty certain we have seen this before with Verbier and Statoil now Equinor (where the share price ralied following formal closing of the deal), not to mention other O&G deals of a similar nature..

You can see this in some of the historic share price charts in the company presentations..

DYOR

'From Zeus' :

The first step here is approval and closing of the GBA farm out deal, which we would expect to happen in the coming weeks

The NSTA are required to confirm the licence extensions as part of the conditions precedent

'From the GBA Farmout RNS' :

The primary conditions precedent to completing the transaction are receipt of the approvals from the NSTA for the transaction and the associated extension of the Company's two GBA licences. Following completion of the transaction, operatorship of the licences will transfer to NEO.

DYOR

Formal agreement including the release of the conditions precedent opens the doors to the institutions..

Not sure Id want to be out then...add a FO in H2 and it changes again (could happen early!)