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Https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/ideas/2023/12/07/chariot-s-transformational-farm-out-is-underrated/

If someone is going to take this out, you would think sooner rather than later.

I assume that an acquirer could use the EPL offset to purchase Jog? Best to do it before a change of government.. Assuming you can claim the entire relief against the M&A ?!? Then Jog purchase price is is a 91% discount to current profitable producers, fully accepting there would be a short term cash hit to a producer (gap between the transaction, and their EPL bill falling due..)

Any views on whether this is correct?

DYOR

2 individuals/funds at on ~12% combined, relatively recently acquired (at least some of it), Recent RNS and Public Domain narrative is very clearly re-enforcing imminent farmout and drilling, significant broker confidence.. and large O&G groups gobbling up M&A assets

You dont take 2x 6% positions without material certainty.. and I suspect they are looking longer term than a quick +50-100%

Has anyone heard anything further on the Eni Cinnamon drill>?

DYOR

Probably the highlight from the report :

…whoever the buyer. NW European upstream M&A activity has been brisk, with 2P reserves changing hands at an average US$12.8/boe in the past two years. JOG trades at just US$1.2/boe vs the peer average of US$4.7/boe and a valuation for the farm-outs of cUS$3/boe.

DYOR

https://*********************/companies/uk/oil-gas-e-ps/jersey-oil-gas-plc/research/cavendish/jersey-oil-gas-delivering-zero-capex-barrels/

dyor

DU - would value your view on how you see this one playing out. I appreciate that no-one has a crystal ball here, but would value your perspective.

No question there is significant value in Jog - and I've been in since the spring of 2019. The bit I normally find myself questioning is how the value actually unlocks - that's the million dollar question I guess ?

I assume a lot of short termers/trader types will cash in their chips on the 2nd F/O, which will no doubt lift and then drop the price (|I am sure it will settle higher). I know the theory is that the institutions buy in - but they still may not favour this even then with a labour government potentially about the withdraw the EPL capital offset/incentive.

I suppose the question is whether you think i) the second F/O and FDP encourage institutional investment and they sit tight for a couple of years until 2026 when first oil is slated or ii) if you think that the 2nd F/O and FDP triggers an M&A transaction or iii) if there is another scenario

I am committed for the long term here - but would really value your view and that of others (some) in terms of how you think this may play out and broad timescales.

Always helpful to share people's perspectives.

DYOR/IMHO

Https://www.upstreamonline.com/exploration/eni-nears-end-of-potential-play-opening-oil-exploration-well-offshore-morocco/

Headline on Eni but clear reference to Chariot …

DYOR

Interesting.. you may be right on short term investment - this is more long term hold for me, which is true for both although across the two I tend to move the weight around..

DYOR

Hi Marine,

I'm in both too... why do you think that? Char feels like it has the greater upside over time, and therefore you would think M&A here is more attractive - especially given the 7TCF prospects, the Power play and Green Hydrogen. Auctus seem to have the unrisked total value at ~ £9.. with project Nour (Hydrogen) massively undervalued

I also really like JOG (and have been invested there for some time), but you are facing a change of government in the UK, no major shareholders (yet) and the highly probably removal of the capital incentive if/when Labour come to power which could delay the project. I dont see anyone buying JOG out short term (there is no need to) and there is risk for new investors. Of course there is risk everywhere, but iMV the prospects look better here

As I said I'm in both - but more weighted here..

Appreciate your view

DYOR/IMO

LMAO John Briggs... to say pretty robust would be an understatement

DYOR

Couldn't agree more on this one..

The problem is it's probably 50/50 re: key timing and the trigger effect it creates .. You would think Chariot has the greater upside, especially from a T/O perspective - but WDIK

I'm invested in both and believe in both stories..

DYOR

https://*********************/research/liberum/liberum-new-energy-nuggets-hydrogen-the-future-is-green/

chariot highlighted

I wonder at what point the M&A card could be played here ...

DYOR

Thanks Jim - appreciate you taking the time to comment, that's a helpful perspective and one I agree with. Good to hear on AB and the institutions - makes total sense.

IMHO

@Jim333

Would very much welcome any thoughts / views you have

ATB

Before I start, I want to state that I am completely on the bus here and positive about Jog (and indeed heavily invested) - but I would like to kick the tyres on this..

Lets assume management land a second farm-out in the next 3 ish months.. sort FPSO, etc which I'm sure they will - I assume the share price will then drive upwards.. the bit that worries me in the short term is who's buying.. I can see quite a few people selling.. and I'm nervous we get a repeat of the farm out with Neo i.e. it hits ~360 and then dives..

If you're an investor - it's completely de-risked if the development goes ahead.. but with a change of government on the horizon, and a potential withdrawal of the EPL offset, would you buy in now.. or would you wait ?

Initially I thought M&A, but the exit price is high right now. If they try and sell, is someone going to pay $200m dollars for Jog's stake - before the government changes and without clarity of new EPL mechanisms? They might do to use their EPL offset.. In my view this is our best shot for short (ish) term gain..

I can see this hitting £3 +, but whether it can continue to rise is the key question if there isnt M&A.

I'm not trying to talk this down, actually far from it. I completely believe this will reach first oil in 2026.. but my worry is that the price may take until then or at least mid 2025 to realise real value..

Views welcome.. and again, this is meant to trigger positive discussion .. not the reverse

DYOR

What a great question

I am only holding Char and Jog, of the three you list. I have been asking myself that question all year... I originally thought at the start of this year that it was Jog, which it was - but not the news that triggered the material uplift we all want.

I would guess Char, and have my investment weighted that way - although the positively tragic and incredibly sad news in Morocco may impact Char's timings.

Just my opinion..

DYOR

There is a reference to Buchan and Jog, but I can’t read it

https://www.upstreamonline.com/opinion/north-sea-oil-and-gas-enjoys-place-in-the-sun-as-storm-clouds-gather-over-offshore-wind/2-1-1515939

Curious to know if you think things are that bad, as to why we have attracted two ~6% shareholders.... recently...

They could just be having a 'punt'... although I suspect not..

DYOR

The attractiveness of Chariot....

https://on.ft.com/3R8aSgw

DYOR