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Whimax

Just for clarity, I am heavily invested here and have continued to add .. which I think I've said repeatedly..

I was just curious to know what Gooner was thinking.. ;-)

DYOR

Where's your view on their exit price, Gooner?

What are your thoughts on it, Jimmy?

Sadly not tomorrow, I had really wanted to attend annoyingly - but cant make the timings work as I'm not London based.

I went LY (and put some commentary in this forum afterwards). In fairness to them, it was a good session and the share price was up materially on a year earlier - so the mood in the room was pretty upbeat.

There was a good ongoing discussion with an analyst (I didnt recognise the name) on share price vs net asset value and why the price was lingering. This got revisited a couple of times throughout the meet, and perhaps unsurprisingly they agreed that it was the lack of certainty (ultimately created by outstanding funding and partnership -at that time - that would propel it). No major surprise there..

I think this year will be different as the board were implying they hoped to achieve more in the 12 months ahead (up to now) than they had in the year that had elapsed last year. I suspect there will be some frustration on timescale and chatter - and they will need to address that. That said I also expect there to be a lot of pragmatic types who see the long term value, and that despite over optimism on timings that they are on track. That's certainly the camp I'm in.. and no doubt the newly announced 6%s will be!!

Duncan definitely adds a lot of credibility when he speaks, and seems competent - which given the amount riding on the geology is reassuring..

If you go, please do share some headlines in this forum

DYOR

You need proof of your shareholding (electronic is fine), and probably worth dropping celicourt a note today to advise you are attending. It's well worth attending..

DYOR

On a somewhat cheerier note, DU - we are coming into the AW season.. WHI are positive about small caps and oil and Jog has an interesting agenda

Despite the unrest in the NS, the reality is that the situation could look a lot worse under a change of government, especially if they withdraw the EPL incentive (albeit I suspect that the unions would have something to say about the knock on impact on jobs...)

So... you would think for those who are committed to the NS, that little old JOG is a definite sitting duck candidate for M&A... especially with Harbour banging the drum..

The next 3-6 month horizon has the potential to look very interesting... especially as Brent continues to head north

From my perspective, I feel more confident now than I have done at any point in the last 4 years...

DYOR/IMHO

Bubblepoint - completely agree on timings and patience.

Have a listen to this, slide 9 from literally a month ago...

https://stream.brrmedia.co.uk/broadcast/64bfd25bbd4f8d76ddc59eb9

DYOR/IMHO

Interesting headline, again can’t read beyond the first paragraph

Anything of interest here Greener101?

https://www.upstreamonline.com/finance/harbour-optimistic-about-m-a-transaction-as-sellers-face-realities/2-1-1506205

Thanks ianfer, agree with your comments..

The only thing I would add, is that they may feel they have said enough! There are two new investors onboard, and Duncan updated less than a month ago with a slide at the end highlighting the opportunity and referred to partnering progressing..

I know we dont like it, but right now they may feel they dont have a lot more to add until the deal is done !?!

IMHO

DYOR

I think they are in a really tricky spot.. Dont get me wrong - I dont like the communication/delay either - they are definitely guilty of optimism in timelines, and I'm definitely not attempting to ramp this - I am just giving my perspective on it, which remains positive.

From their side there are all manner of things that could be happening - the front runner for partner wants in on the onshore, Total (having bought Eren recently) decide they want to be the front runner and join the party late, management spot an opportunity to get a better deal now they have liquidity (e.g. a prospective partner ups their bid), etc... the list goes on....

Mid negotiation how much do you really want to tell the market ?!? Without damaging the deal that you think you are about to pull off .. the list goes on.. The BOD have reiterated soon, and that the deal is of a material nature. These statements have to be factual based on the management's knowledge at that time.. Beyond the regulatory scrutiny, the likes of Soc Gen aren't going to just kick back and accept anything they think is misleading as they have a reputation to safeguard, etc

In summary, I have a level of empathy for the position they are in. Beyond the brokers even the likes of Simon Cawkwell are strongly endorsing it..

AGM soon - they are going to need to say something.. and I suspect that toward the end of this week, or early next week (say Thursday - Tuesday) I suspect we will get some form of RNS..

But.. that's just my opinion!

DYOR

I suspect the market want some certainty … eg formalised offtake, partnering and debt finance. This alone will prevent some institutions from even participating at present ..

The fact that we have 2 players at north of a combined 12 percent without this, is encouraging ..

A major banging the drum about a further 7TCF of potential upside could change the dynamic very quickly.. The onshore seismic drill validation could potentially validate the offshore quickly (based on similar profiling)

I think this could rise very very quickly when some of that happens. I also think early drilling success could quite quickly open the door to a T/O if the resources are validated to be as significant as the team think

You pays your money ….

DYOR

Definitely interesting .. when you say nothing significant this year - what’s your perspective on : i) The BOD announcing that partnering is imminent and ii) the views of Auctus, Cenkos, SN and ST from the IC who are all saying the same, noting the share is materially undervalued ..

Not to mention the Moroccan government who have just ‘handed’ the team a freebie onshore .. you would think they have a level of confidence the team might be able to develop it ..

Just my view of course…

Would love your perspective on that..

As with all things in life there are equal and opposite forces.. another way of looking at this is that i) they needed cash to hold out for the most material deal they could with farminees running down the clock knowing this - you can argue they misjudged the timing here, but the process will majors will have been complex and protracted ii) the onshore opportunity was identified through the process and due to the reservoir fairway connectivity ?!? and 3D seismic they realised they needed to secure it.. or iii) in relation to point (i) that by having more cash they can retain a higher percentage they traded back cost for a higher working interest in Anchois. I would guess it was a combination of all 3, primarily driven by the need to retain the highest WI % possible as their preference. Given the choices I suspect they’ve made the right call. The fact we have 2 holders with a combined north of 12 percent is a seriously good sign IMHO and the biggest vote on confidence we’ve had in a while. JMW refers to them as long term partners in his latest broadcast .. They were never going to update the market in August with holidays everywhere .. next week or the week after (pre AGM) for material news is my guess. IMHO. DYOR

If that was angled at me I’ve been in since 2020 and I don’t day trade

To share an extract from one of the recent RNS; you would think the majors might have had a little stare before committing $ms… 😂

The farmout partnering process for Lixus and Rissana has been competitive and has attracted significant industry interest. Forty companies have accessed a data room and multiple offers have been received including from multinational E&P groups with strong balance sheets. This process has technically validated Chariot's development plan as well as the exploration potential. Any offer, should it proceed to completion, anticipates that Chariot Morocco would retain a material stake in the licences and that there would be an upfront cash consideration. Further, any farmout may materially provide the financing of the anticipated development capital expenditure to first gas. Chariot Morocco expects to announce its new partner shortly.

The farmout partnering process for Lixus and Rissana has been competitive and has attracted significant industry interest. Forty companies have accessed a data room and multiple offers have been received including from multinational E&P groups with strong balance sheets. This process has technically validated Chariot's development plan as well as the exploration potential. Any offer, should it proceed to completion, anticipates that Chariot Morocco would retain a material stake in the licences and that there would be an upfront cash consideration. Further, any farmout may materially provide the financing of the anticipated development capital expenditure to first gas. Chariot Morocco expects to announce its new partner shortly.

Agree, H1 2024 for Jog to have this contractually agreed

It will be locked up before any govt change IMHO..

Remember, Neo also want this as they want to offset as much cost as they can before the EPL incentive is potentially withdraw /amended .. That’s the point that Harbour are making ..

I also suspect it plays to labours advantage to get it down under the conservatives … that way they won’t row back on it, but can point the blame at others ..

Whichever way you cut it Jog looks like H1 2024 for FID

DYOR

Total appear to have a strategy day planned for their investors in late September … it might coincide nicely with char updates due imminently … DYOR

Sadly I don’t have access to the full article, DU. The story was highlighted in a google alert setting I have. I can only read the headline sadly ..

I think from memory Bullson has access?

DYOR

Https://www.upstreamonline.com/field-development/uk-offshore-revival-hinges-on-trio-of-controversial-projects/2-1-1504059

The inferred time frame would be good though …

DYOR

Just reading the same … think people are finally waking up to the idea of grabbing things now and using the tax offset whilst it lasts …

Referring to outside suggestions of potential M&A targets, Cook said Harbour was getting a lot of “inbounds” and that the company was reviewing numerous options.

In relation to short cycle ‘high return’ options in the UK near their existing developments …

From memory you hold Shares in Harbour, DU? Would be interested in your thoughts on either M&A or a second farm in partner .. From a farm in it would make a lot of sense ..

IMHO/DYOR

C-H-F sorry for the delay reply. Yes, I am implying he has continuously reiterated his views over time, even when the share price has been at rock bottom at 50p with nothing but negativity in the public domain and with no certainty at all. The facts are in plain sight. Why would he need to reiterate his view every 2 months when they havent changed ?!? I suspect his readers might get a tad bored, given he covers all small caps! He's definitely stuck to the story... even when the initial Verbier drill blanked in 2019.

Anyway... others are making the same broad point. We all get to make our own choices - good luck with yours! As iterated previously, I am sticking.. and have had a moderately sized twist! If something else I am invested in comes off, I am going to twist again on JOG..

DYOR