Member Info for Surety

2 trades at c. £750k GBP in the last hour.....

Cavendish (Was Cenkos) have c. 71p if Energean take the option of the extra 10% and fund, with their current guidance at 58p. Stifel and Peel Hunt are at the lower end, with the lowest target at 35p. Auctus are in the middle at 50p and SP Angel seem to be increasingly bullish about M&A on high risk exploration assets.

On the 18th March, Stifel then published a short note saying the Power business in a full divestment could be worth 10p. Clearly ambitious, but interesting against the relative backdrop of a c. 35p target..

Of particular interest though is that Auctus then published a note on the 10th April referred to as 'gearing up to drill' The note relates to Loukos and Anchois, with an emphasis on Chariot prioritising Gas. No surprises.... ;-)

It was this note that I found particularly interesting though in terms of the reference to Loukos. They are quoted as saying 'there is more value there than we originally thought due to the deeper plays.' They value Gaufrette at 6p for 10 BCF unrisked a further+2p for the deeper sands and 4p unrisked for the wider Dartois area at 12 BCF. This totals 12-13p with rounding.. for 22 BCF.

The point is that if Jimmy's view is right and there is significantly more in Loukos this should seriously rocket.

DYOR

It is utterly bizarre that someone would hold a short position (if indeed they do) given the imminent drill news and the strategic review of power underway.... If Jimmy is even partly right on the 1TCF point at Gaufrette in the deeper reservoir, that's up to 10x the existing estimate for all of Loukos (100 BCF). That alone would rocket the price, you would think, or trigger a takeover. Auctus valued Loukos in their most recent note at ~14p per share based on the two wells .. Add Anchois Success, Power Divestment and the Green Hydrogen...

And yet even over the last two days there are some hefty £80k, £50k, etc trades.. and a potential short position

It's very odd!!!

DYOR

BDC,

Conversely though.. I suppose you could sell the holding, to drive down the share price in order to drive a significant return on a CFD short position that you simultaneously had open.. or is that over thinking it?

IMHO

If the position

The other point of note is that Simon Thompson has been unusually quiet.. it's almost 5 months since he last published his 'hold' advice and words to the effect of 'when the dust settles expect the heavily oversold shares to bounce'

Good conversation on this forum today, btw! This is exactly the sort of thing we should be exploring/discussing..

DYOR

This doesnt quite make sense... assuming we think that Covalis triggered/accelerated the collapse in the first place, partially, by selling down... why would you do that.. and maintain an open CFD position..

DYOR

Make that 3.23

How do you interpret the ~3.9% in financial instruments..

I originally thought that Whimax, but on 21.3.24 they were sat on 4.91%. I am not sure how to read the constituent parts of their 4.91% though...

If the market cap was say c. £90m, it would mean about £4.5m. Askar picked up c. 1%,m which we know from the RNS that dates back to the transactions on the day of the Energean transaction completing. There were also some significant trades beyond the ~£1m that Askar will have picked up.. and these followed in the next 1-2 days. I am not certain they are entirely out though.. It's probably close but not impossible that they still have £1-2m that they are gradually clearing down..

IMHO

I was just looking at Covalis's last RNS. How much do we think they have left...

I spent an hour this afternoon having a look at any info publicly available on Askar. There isn’t a huge amount of intel - but he, through Meridian, is an investor who seems to favour FMCG, Natural Resources (Exploration and Mining) and Infrastructure. His plays generally seem strategic and longer term. He does seem to have some form with acquiring companies - but I couldn’t find much about this. The narrative definitely points towards this being a serious investor whose increase in shareholding will, unsurprisingly, be seen as a vote of confidence in chariot and is unlikely to be a quick punt. Given his activity in the natural resources - namely exploration and mining space it is likely he knows AP.

It seems unlikely that this is either a quick punt or unresearched bet!

DYOR - but beyond the obvious I think this looks encouraging and may draw others..

I wonder if you were right Whimax about a buyer keeping the price in check... time will tell, but assuming this is accurate it's a massive vote on confidenece.

I think a poster called 'Amanda...' posted a comment on here a few weeks ago in relation to Askar, so would be interested to hear their updated views - whether Askar has been moving funds, motive, etc

DYOR

WTF

What’s your exit number ….

I suspect that Energean are keen to get on with this.... They have been clear about Morocco, potentially, representing a key point of diversification to their existing geographies and therefore getting clarity sooner rather than later will suit them. AP has also talked about their ability to potentially accelerate Anchois production timescales if they choose to, although he wasn't clear on the how.

There is some interesting activity on the near term horizon : Loukos, Anchois, Strategic Review on Power arm, with heavy newsflow in the next 3-4 months.

As someone highlighted recently, you can only sell once (in relation to persistent selling)...

DYOR

Appreciate obvious, point 2 relates to Loukos

Thanks Surfit / Gooner..

When you say long term , I am curious what you think the following may do to the share price

i) The strategic review of Power. Speculation of up to 10p per share.. even if it's worth 2-3p+, it's 20-30% of today's mcap

ii) Finding more gas than expected, combined with a plan to produce by end of the calendar year

iii) Successful drill(s) on Anchois, unclocking over 1TCF and Energean taking up the option with FID in place before end of Calendar year

If all 3 fall into place, let's say by end of this calendar year - October/November/December..

What do you think that's worth... I dont regard that as seriously long term as a timescale..

DYOR/IMHO

If both 2 x 6 percenters are selling out .. I suspect they still have some left.. especially if Askar was also holding through other means ..

Whilst it’s an inevitable ‘how long is a piece of string’ does anyone have a view on how much they might have left .. assuming the entire 12 percent has been sold / is up for sale ..

Bizarre.... Jimmy/Amanda - Any thoughts?

I suspect we have someone significant in the background continuing to sell.. It can only last for so long..

DYOR