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Brilliant James. One assumes that someone also bought the £98k sell !!!

FrazerJ - That is actually incredibly helpful IMHO. My read on that is they must have a deal.. it’s almost as if they are trying to help JOG with the ‘however’ .. They could simply have just declined to comment in line with their policy.. As they started the initial response.. Assuming you have literally cut and paste the entire transcript (I’m not doubting your integrity by the way).

This suggests the issue is timing .. are they waiting for an announcement (results?!?) or are the producer(s) making sure the government move on the floor mechanism before showing their hand.. which is creating the delay? Will this move now that the government have indicated to the NSTA they will look at it ?

You would think the NTSA would have looked for validation from the farminee(s) or acquirer as well ?

Really interesting response…

DYOR

I guess this is all about timing! If the government are really consider a floor mechanism, then who in their right mind is going to give ammunition to the case against the need for a floor - until it's in place (ammunition being : going ahead with major farmout or take over )

Just my view!

If it's Ithaca, I wonder if we are more looking at end March in line with their likely results..

My money is on a producer company announcement (March) timed with their results...

Depending on who, it could be anywhere between early and late March!!

I think if it's anything other than this, then Benitz has to go.. and as a collective we should call for that!

DYOR

DYOR

Robsroom... I'd point you to the share price in May/June 2019 just prior to the GBA licence award announcement, where it nearly quadrupled in short order (for something far less valuable - i.e. licence awards!). The share price looked equally depressed and on its way to oblivion at that point (despite speculation the licences were about to be awarded)..

I'm not buying the direction of travel argument on the current price.. Of course that doesn't mean I'm right ;-)

I do however think a T/O is most likely.. I just dont get why you would farm in and share the spoils (on the third largest pre FID project, the only one not owned by a large producer) when you can acquire this for a song and largely offset the acquisition cost..

DYOR / IMHO and all of that good stuff...

News soon please!!

I do my best Robsroom... hope its more £6+ personally!!

The trades are relatively small at the moment! I'm not particularly worried about the share price movement right now..

What do you really think Robsroom? You've been in for a while !?!

Right interpretation Greener, it’s a guess from my side I’m afraid :-)

But … cash wise you have to pay the EPL, I assume 9 months after the books close. Last years EPL was only part year (and ratcheted half way through the part year as the government hiked it). I imagine there is also a timing piece on cash, no hurry last year, preserve the cash.. this year you have to account for the full EPL hit, so you lose the cash but one assumes 9 months after the books close .. You also have to tell your investors what you’re doing this year to mitigate the EPL..

In my mind the timing points to about now given the update timings..

But it’s a guess…

The timing is particularly relevant if you are buying JOG outright as you need the full year offset (otherwise you may not have been paying enough in tax to cover the cost and therefore don’t want to buy it early - because you had more profit and less tax to pay)

It’s a pretty neat part of your investor update if you think about it .. a strong story as you guide toward the impending tax hit as a producer!

My money is Harbour or Ithaca..

DYOR

Of note: Ithaca, Harbour and Cnooc - not to mention others, are due to update the market in March.. I think Harbour go first on or around the 8th…with Ithaca at the end ..

Also worth mentioning is that we are now into a full year of EPL at the high rate for most producers (financial year timings), or about to enter one. (Until now they have ‘relatively’ small part year EPL payments)..

From my simple interpretation of the bill (having re read it this morning) both acquisition of Jog or Farm Out (and associated costs) can be offset. The latter is obvious…

March makes sense in terms of timing and hopefully early .. if you consider that a producer wants a full year EPL bill (not a part one) against which offset costs (maximising tax offset) if you were going to acquire JOG or farm into it - now is the time to do it..

You then have enough time to start deploying capital meaningfully throughout the year to maximise the offset, especially if your development solution is a simple tie back ..

In my mind there is definitely something in terms of the market update timing and the timing of financial years. Greener was referencing this also yesterday ..

March is the month.. the question is who .. and what and when in March ?!?

This is about to get interesting…. And it may explain the timing and the drawn out wait!

DYOR

It’s an interesting one on the negotiating position.. they aren’t short on cash, and they have the largest pre fid asset not owned by a major in a world where existing producers need assets to claim capital relief - otherwise it’s sunk as tax. The deadline for acquiring such an asset is also shortening before tax is due ..

I think the negotiating hand is stronger than we think…

Dyor

DU - I’d meant the same thing.. just use of language and interpretation .. I would do the same re waiting unless, as you say, the government clarify (privately or publicly) the continued existence of the incentive..

I think Hunt was sending a clear message.. I also think that Labour are using careful language in their rhetoric about ‘ not funding exploration.’ They haven’t said they won’t support or incentivise capital deployment into existing proven assets..

They also. need seats in Scotland if they want to win, the SNP are materially weakened, and therefore aggravating voters with a North Sea livelihood dependency (direct or indirect) is not sensible.. Even Labour know this..

I suspect you are right DU and there is an understanding that may have been given…

I hope you are right both on outcome and timing..

I also remain optimistic ..

DYOR

I think implicit in him not saying it, is that the process is still live..

If they are waiting for mid-March as per DU's note, then there is little they can say at this stage..

DYOR

Abatt - this is really poor…

‘Do think no deal is very likely based on asking too high a price….’

Based on what fact are you saying that?

Evening All

I’m just catching up on the narrative. Have been away for the week so other than the 7am check ins, I haven’t read much

I had a quick read back through the analysts notes in November. WH Ireland remained confident, stating likely the first farm-out to get Development funding, Finn cap pushed through a material target upgrade, Arden remained positive.

The EPL revision facts were all known at this point. Since then the only real com change in Hunt confirming that they won’t change further and will behave responsibly. The labour uncertainty factor was also known at this point. KS had made noise on no exploration funding., but then EM has reiterated the importance of the NS. This was all largely known.

Energy voice have ran a piece stating that assets (like jogs) that are pre production and largely known are likely to be highly desirable.

As a journalist I rate ST at the IC a lot. Yep he gets things wrong from time to time, but his commentary on JOG over recent years is almost at a conviction level

https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/ideas/2022/12/15/simon-thompson-my-views-on-2023/

If you look at the comments ST made in December (after the last Jog announcement and with the EPL modification confirmed) he mentions JOG twice. Once as part of an undervalued sector that the market will recognise in time and again in the same article with a reference to the importance of the right management (he sites the former Ithaca team clearly). It is the only example of capable management he gives…

I find it hard to believe .. given the known and unknown knowns that he would do this unless he was confident …

Who knows why it’s taking so long.. the ‘if not by December’ comment could have been a clear message to one of the interested parties.. either make your play or we’re opening it up to others in the race..

They have plenty of cash.. the Ithaca guys (inc Les Thomas in his first chairmanship have their reputations on the line)

From memory the EPL offset needs to be confirmed by existing producers by end of March.. or something along those lines ..

There is every reason to stay calm (despite it feeling bloody uncomfortable) and believing this is going to happen in a materially favourable way!!

DYOR - I’ve done mine and I’m sitting patiently (semi :-) )

Is that a hedge ... or a genuine want ?!?

I assume this will potentially make Chariot even more attractive to Total given they are pausing Hydrogen projects with Adani ..

https://on.ft.com/3jIuPMs

DYOR

Penny for your thoughts after the latest 'Hunt' update...

I guess if the devil is in the detail, then there is no reference to the EPL incentive / allowance !?!

Hopefully that isn't the case, and privately management teams have been assured that the status quo will be maintained (inc the investment allowance).. and 'we can get on with it.' Given the Bloomberg quote from Hunt it is hard to see how they could row back on this..

RNS this week anyone?

DYOR

https://on.ft.com/3DIdEl2

Are realising that O&G is an increasingly key part of their future in the medium term.. and has a bigger role to play in enabling the energy transition..

This announcement, typical of the broader environment, can only be helpful for the NS where the EPL incentive is already skewing toward reinvestment..

Time to kick on now AB/JOG. You specifically said 'in Q1', not 'by the end of Q1.. ' Subtle though the language may be, there is a difference and we are little over 1.5 months from the end of it.

Running your investors to the cliff edge is not a good way of treating them!

DYOR