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@T247 No one can predict a fall or rise, the geo -politics are just too uncertain. take The biden administration has just sent a high level team to Venezuela, no doubt to get Moduro on side. Chances are slim that they'll succeed but if they do and Venezuela start supplying oil then oil price will drop and IAG SP will rocket. There are several other 'similar' scenarios... Opec opening taps, Iran agreeing nuclear deal, lifting of oil sanctions, and we are also coming out of winter - all will reduce pressure on oil.... So whilst oil may rise again, there is more downside pressure than up side pressure.
So my bet is IAG may fall a little more but not much. I think there is more upside pressure now.... of course its just an opinion and only a fool would guarantee either but i'm happy to put my money where my mouth is and average down as I have made good money with this simple technique... Oh and i'm still in the green from when this last fell to near £100:-)
GLA
@D9B
It might drop further, all news related of course but i cant see it dropping much further even if oil rises again might drop to 115 but i'm putting a buy in bc at this price its a cheap share...
and my previous posts from 2021 will show you i made good money from this share buy averaging down....
GLa
I put in a sell at 141 and just lost out. So I'm now holding 2/3rds of my powder in IAG. Does it worry me? not a jot bc as i previously posted this will rise and fall lots over the next two months until Q1 results are out.
For the reasons given by ECarrots, I think it is a steal at this price. most people seem to have forgotten that IAG's exposure is minimal eastbound and 50% of IAG's fuel is hedged at a much lower cost than the current price or it's competitors so its a win for IAG.
that people are panic selling is just another opportunity, I'm just annoyed I havent been able to take full opportunity of it.
AWith current news, I suspect this might fall on opening due Nuclear power station issue. On the other hand might also rise if a cease fire takes traction... either way its a steal and I'll be putting in a buy with my 1/3 rd dry powder to take advantage of the rise...
gla
Calling the bottom on this cycle is going to be very difficult. I sold a large tranche this am to at 152, not sure now is the time to buy back in as things are still developing. Either way, LTH will still do well as the west will soon have to go on a 'war' footing and that means a lot of money will be pumped into the western economies and that in turn will lead to a lot of transatlantic traveling... between western nations.
GLA
@Sund
You know we are both LTH and occasional day traders. And whilst The oracle is anything but, it's unlikely there will be any peace agrement as that would mean the end of Putin. And he has complete control and its a do or die for him and the only way that will change is if the russian people do regime change....and they will but it will take time like years....
this will rise and fall faster massively over next few months so i'm back to weekly trading....
just a lay opinion of course
gla
Oracle is a known de-moaner. I haven't filtered him yet as I make money purely on the basis that when he posts the SP is near the bottom of the cycle so i buy in again and mop up. I don't plan to be a 'day trader' mostly LTH but this share keeps on giving!
GLA
GLA
@Woody
You sound like Chamberlin and that invited Hitler to invade Poland. Stop Putin now will cost ten's of thousands of lives. failure to stop him now will cost europe MILLIONS of lives.
What would you choose?
GAL
this is the beggining of the end for Putin, it will take a few years but Ukraine will prevail and Putin will be toppled like all dictators eventually are. its the law of nature and no ego however big can stop that.
GlA ukranians we are with you
just bought xxxk of IAG....
Will top up again tomorrow:-)
For my non filtered guests this is my current take...
1. markets very nervous with putin, embargoes, sanctions etc result oil price rise, IAG SP down
2. Putin cant afford an outright invasion, he plays the long game... Acknowledging the breakaway rebel Donbask regions means russian troops will get 'invited, so not an invasion... but absorbtion of teritory already under russian control. The key to this is how will the west react? how deep will they sanction Moscow? that will determine the market reaction and likely to shrug off as we are coming out of winter so less reliant on russian oil.
3. IAG results out end of week. Likely to be good but SP still likely to be subdued due to current geo politics....
4. net result, continued SP depression until the above sorted or more Q results show serious money is being made....
Tomorrow , probable 3-5% dip red opening....
gla
@Wobbles
Sure plenty of worry there thats why this SP isn't in the 220's!
I don't doubt putin's sabre rattling has some meat (100k) behind it and whilst they could easily overrun Ukraine Putin will be wary as they got their arses kicked in Afstan when the CIA supplied the Mujahadeen with AAmissiles as the russian body count went up the old USSR fell apart. Putin will not want russian mums rioting... so chances are getting slimmer for a complete invasion. That's not to say he wont take another chunk but that will also have serious consequences so looking less likely.... but imo its priced in. and yes there will be a drop across all shares if they do invade but likely to recover quickly as money will then pour into the armaments industry which will ramp up transatlantic flights and bring about even more IAG profits...
My laymans take anyway...
GL
@Jotum
I 'm not espousing this position but if that were to be the case I dont think there would be much overlap in competion as the rest of IAG is europe focused with latin america and a Qatart-BA tie up would be North americas/far east concentric and with a code share between IAG and Qatar (as already exists) this would complement them all. Of course the Qatari cash boost would be welcolm by BA & IAG also so all would benefit.
I know Akbar has always wanted BA and with spare cash lying about it would be a good investment, especially given the new BA gatwick operation which would act as an additional 'feeder'.
Who knows:-)
GL
very good, completly agree, and would add that the IAG cash flow is now rocketing. Just look online at a club seat and it's about 4 times what it was pre-pandemic.
Threats are global instability aka russia/china/the west
operational issues like covid lockdowns/local wars/ knee jerk government behaviour
Market jitters as we are currently seeing
Oil price inflation
Whilst those are not all the risks, they are perhaps the biggest risks for the next few months until markets/governments settle.
And ia gree IAG is undervalued that's why i'm holding and not selling evn on dips as it's too difficult to predict when it will rise rapidly.
Also january is traditionally panic month like october!.
Come end of month SP might fall even further but i think there is pent up good news which has been out there a few weeks now but is not reflected in the SP hence undervalued...
GLA