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i havent posted for a while -thankfully I hear you say!
but read a post today from Scotty1238 where he says:
"I don't have an issue with you sund , but your constant ramping may affect decisions other people in the board make without being aware of the risks"
He's right... I stopped listening to the constant ramping and didnt buy in at 112 today, instead bought in at 108. Might be premature as the mrs says but sometimes being a little early is better than being too late!
me thinks this will be very volatile until new Q2 results published in Oct...
Good luck all
I just took a flight to Dubai. Of the 12 cabin crew on board 3 were new staff. Apparently IAG (BA) are recruiting cabin crew, ground engineers etc by the hundreds and thats just to keep on top of forward bookings. So not sure who your friend of a friend is but I dont think they are well informed. You can google the latest BA recruitment campaign - it is still ongoing:-)
Gla
7am this friday.
Consensus is will record a profit. If it beats market expectations (which is low) the SP will rise a little into 120's is my guess, otherwise it will fall to low 100's.
my guess it will be below expectations, but it is just a guess.
GLA
Christ, I've only been away 1 week on hols, had to endure endless queues at T5 only to come back from a place hotter than a mumbai snake charmers underpants.
To boot. the SP nearly crashed through the £1.00 barrier
AC777 has been having some runs ins (no idea whats been going on there
Tories are pretending to be nice to each other
Heathrow has capped passenger numbers saying stop there's too many of em
Oil has dropped
strikes threatened everywhere in UK
Now the SP is back up to 110.
This is a dream for day traders!
Just passed my GMDSS course so on track to live on my dinghy for when there is nothing but sea and all the worlds ice caps have melted...
GLA, have a good W/E i'm off to buy some ice cream, sun lotion (factor 100), water (before it runs out), cooling fans (i think they have already run out) sausages and burger for the BBQ on my jack Jones wearing my favorite pyjamas sipping rio tropical (light version obviously don't want to get type 2 diabetes)...
Oh and not sure whats happened with shorts...Guess
caught fire or had an engine fire? all combustable engines catch fire, spoiler alert that's how they work! hence they are called combustable!
Sounds like you are clutching at straws for the SP to go down, - a bit like Oracle. Every time he says SP about to dive it climbs!!!
gla
Lesson i learnt on here long time ago was there are those that are genuine and sometimes get it wrong (dont we all!) and those that are manipulative (tend to be the shorters).
No guesses which one Oracle falls into....
GLA
The common theme is WTF, how can IAG management be sooo incompetent!
I wrote to them today explaining that their actions are irresponsible in light of the directors re-instating their pay. Just imagine ground staff strike then separately, cabin crew, then separately pilots. which ever way uou look at it all you need is 70% of each group to strike over alternate days to floor the airline! for weeks but still maintain reasonable pay!
I'm a big IAG holder but screw -ing the workforce is not the way to increase the SP value....
management need to be changed starting with the the one that sounds like a sinking spanish galleon...a bit like the SP...
gla
I'm not one for predictions as a week is a long time in this game but I suspect the markets (and tide) will turn very soon (within 6 weeks) for these reasons:
1. oil price is being driven down because of pending global recession
2, people have savings for expensive holidays
3. seat capacity vastly reduced across most markets so much less competition.
4. Businesses need to get out there (in person) to seal the deal.
possible down sides
1. Inflation (will effect advance bookings)
2. monkey pox/covid variants
3. the things you don't know you don't know
Medium term. Pootin will lose and oil will fall
so out look is good IMHO
gla
Just came back from CPT, where I have my summer (although its winter there at the mo) residence. Very annoyed as club tickets are so hugely inflated, not a spare seat in club or premium - again! and food quiet frankly is ****. Seems like a good idea to hold or buy more and the years prognosis is good. people are investing in club/first to seal the deal.
Staffing issues will get resolved and this is market driven so blips here and there are no sweat. I think it bottomed at 108 so the only way is ?
I'm holding
Gla
I'm off to orlando six flags to try out the new rollacoaster as supposed to be the tallest, highest, fastest in the world and guarantee an adrelin rush...
Oh no wait thats not true anymore, IAG can do the same thing and you dont even have to leave the office. Must be the new VR goggles.
Friday -will it go red?
I'm still holding
gla
For the shorters, well done. Not my forte only due lack of experience and too scared to get it wrong! although I have dabbled a little...
So for the tea leaf readers, this may go up or down as the macro economics are screaming inflation, high oil prices and so on. All economies and markets are seriously spooked so what's the chance of this SP holding or even rising?
In my view, I think the SP is oversold, not a bad thing if you have dry powder and can wait. And wait (patience) is what you'll need plenty of , for in the absence of black and white figures showing the road to recovery, nothing will move this SP up except 'sentiment' and that is an untangible asset, very much like bitcoin (good luck to bit coin holders, i never went there as IMHO a glorified digital ponzi scheme!). Just look at what happened when the US announced scrapping the covid tests for entry- the SP went down! so good news isnt good unless it can trump the macro economics and that will only happen when tea leaf reading is replaced but 2nd qtr results. in the meantime watch the SP slowly rise between now and then once SP is published a massive fall if it doesnt meet market expectations...
full disclosure, bought back in too early so currently holding a loss but havent closed my position as obviously I think it will come right. especially for IAG as most of its profit is made LH and that is still stupidly oversold.
so I'm long and now waiting .....patiently for 2nd Qtr results
gla
Not sure that will happen otherwise it would have made sense to delay the Share buy back. I think this will take off end of July. Former head of MI6 says pootin will be out of power somewhere between 3 & 6 months. looks like the writing is on the wall and Lazarov is positioning himself to replace him but that wont happen so there will be a big change of scenary by Xmas, oil prices will drop significantly as Russia will blame pootin and make war reparations and come back into the fold. By that point many western nations will have weened themselves off black gold so price will drop ...
Patience is the key
GLA
Woody you could be on to something. my worry is Ursula van dyke will get aggreement on total oil embargo by next Friday and UK market will be closed and that will see a fall in SP. I am often wrong though. How I make money day/weekly trading is still a mystery to me...:-)
GLA
Hi lloyds
Agree with most of what you say except BA doesn't have any 747's and fuel is hedged for next 2 years (although normally its 6 -12 months). So fuel shock should be minimal.
As previously posted and I think accepted wisdom, the SP is not reflecting any thing like the potential of IAG, it is much lower compared to many of it's rivals despite having a very solid business model and that is down to market manipulation and sentiment...
I've just sold a chunk bc it's friday with the expectation this will go lower and will then buy back in with that dry powder. But I am holding more than than my dry powder reserves so its pure speculation. Of late the SP has rallied on Fridays when it normally falls so given I'm predicting a fall you can bet the opposite will happen!
GLA and have a good week end...
Lloyds, completely agree. Until then I think this Share is going to bounce up and down and will be entirely driven by feckless sentiment. This is why I'm not even bothering to post much (phew I hear!!) as there is no point given fundamentals are not the biggest driving force...
GLA