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Bobbins
this SP rarely climbs 10% (although it has) on good news, it's generally a slow trend with a couple of dips...I'm no sherlock, but barring the usual caveats - pootin etc- i think this is now trending up...which is unusual given its Easter so I would have expected more profit taking!...looks like the big boys dont want to miss out:-)
GLA
Sorry Ed, completely disagree. Ukraine had already implemented the Minsk agreement. It's already obvious that pootin wanted the whole of Ukraine and there was no option for either the west or Ukrainians to fight back.
Only time will tell who's right. In either case it's a world disaster not just for Russia, Ukranians and the west but also for millions of Africans who will now go even more hungry as the world aid food program bought much of their supplies direct from Ukraine. ..
The question that now arises is how long will the war last ...pootin is trying to get it over and done with by 9th of may. he may well succeed in annexing the whole of the donbass region -short term- but the war will continue and it will then become a war of attrition and there he will loose. how will this affect IAG SP? No one can be certain hence the low SP price at the moment.
The next 3 weeks (until after 9th May) are critical for Russia/Ukraine and by default the IAG sp. it could well go done but flights are very very full so at some point the SP will reflect that.
let's agree to disagree and focus on the SP rather than Geo-politicals although I accept they have a huge influence on the SP!
gla
@Ed
lets see who's right. russai will inflict severe damage in the east of Ukraine but they are doomed to fail. that is not wishful thinking but logical thinking:
1. UAF are very motivated
2. The west is now arming UAF with 'offensive' weapons which allows not just the defence but crucially offence to recapture lost land.
3. Ukraine is now so full of lights arms/ shoulder missiles that they can inflict a war of attrition that POOTIN (yes that is the correct spelling for that piece of excrement) simply will not be able to sustain over the long term. Look at the Ruskies in Afghanistan in the 80's as a prime example. It cost them so much money, it eventually led to the fall of the Berlin wall.
4. The west will continue to supply Ukraine with weapons as it suits them to weaken Russia - which it now has.
5. The idea that it was a tactical move by pootin to attack Kyiv to weaken the UAF to then send russian forces to the east 'by surprise' is to agree to the russian narrative 'it was their plan all along'.
6. lets not even start on why this is also important for the west for UAF to win against Russia vis a vis Taiwan and China. If, and its not certain, UAF win - eventually- then that will be a very big dissuader for China to invade Taiwan - and also save thousands of American lives as america does not want a show down with China.
7. And of course pootin has now done what trump/Biden couldn't do - persuade europe to spend more on defence!
8. Now there are more troops in eastern europe than at any other time since the cold war.
9. yep your right i dont have a clue...it must be pure luck i'm in xxk profit. i dont always get it right (only just above 50% but thats all you need to beat the house), no one does, there are too many 'unknowns'. AC77 is better than me at predicting and I'm not arrogant to just listen to my own voice or conspiracies .but i'm willing to listen even if I take it under advisement...
GLA
@Raffles
yes you were right but that is usual knee jerk reaction. Ukraine has been preparing for a chemical weapons attack for a while as there is no other option for Pootin. He invaded a country with poorly equipped/trained soldiers as his closest aides were too scared to tell him how **** his army was. The only play they have left is chemical weapons. Nukes is not an option as that will invite a first strike by the west if he is seen to be readying his nukes. He could possibly go for 'tactical' mobile nukes but that also carries significant risks.
So the SP will rise and fall between now and the 9th May as that is Russia's historical D-day. There will be a HUGE move by russian forces (and pressure by Pootin) between now and then and they are learning to change tactics . For example, they are now moving their convoys with much greater spacing between trucks/carriers/tanks so as to limit the ambush ability of the UAF. But the change is still doomed to fail as the ambushers are not in the typical sense bunched at the top of a ravine, Ukrainians are all around with a supply of over 60,000 anti tank/personal shoulder carrying missiles. Not to mention the SAM's that have now entered Ukraine.
So in terms of SP this will rise on the rumours fall on the facts. it will also rise and fall on sentiment. put the two together and we now have a very volatile SP again. great for day traders!
But overall, barring armageddon where all bets are off, the pressure is seriously building for upward momentum. You just have to look at the usual doomsayers who are positive on this share!
I'm back in, all in again:-)
2 big questions remain:
1. Will Germany and France cut off Russian oil or will the Russians do it themselves and when?
2 when are next IAG quarter figures being released? before or after 9th may?
Answers to Blue Peter, PO Box, Red Square,
Splashed out last night with a red Lindt chocolate I found in the bottom of my brief case courtesy of BA club. Somewhat matured but better than the toffee quality street from the cupboard.
GLA
@SunD
No chance of a cease fire. To think as much is sadly misplaced judgement. this war will go on for many more months if not years.
The light for the SP is that there are still billions of £'s in savings people want to spend on Long haul trips ...The good news is:
-Fuel is 60% hedged
-oil might go up or down either way, europe is taking concrete steps to wean itself off oil & gas asap
people are already changing their driving habits to use less fuel
nuclear back on the table
as demand for oil mismatches production, stocks of oil will start to ramp up and prices will start to fall around 2-3 months. The reason this will happen is that Russia is still producing oil and is in fact producing more oil than before and selling it cheap to India & China. So china & india dont want middle east oil so where are the ABS going to off load their oil? The west... hence oil stock rise, price fall. Oilprice.com reckons about 3 months....
then the SP will rise as you say 'like a rocket' but doubtful before.
In case it does I just bought in again! dont want to miss out lol
gla
@AC777
Completely agree but therein lies the problem. Over the last week, the range has been quiet narrow and not as volotile as it normally is...
So i bought back in again at 50% of my holding so really waiting for this to drop to mid 30s to buy in more or climb to sub 150 to sell....
gla
@ Steve London, I dont think BA cancelled more flights than EZJ, last figure I saw was 115. not 222. If I'm wrong prove it. dont just say something that you cant back up with figures show your source or be quiet...
On a separate note, looks like SP will be under pressure not just from cancellations, lack of internal resources but also will possible further sanctions on Russia...Oil price appears steady but that s only bc Chinease have screwed up managed covid so their economy is not requiring so much oil....
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/US-Oil-Demand-Has-Been-Vastly-Overestimated.html
GLA
Just sold my entire IAG holding, to come back in after the week end....too much uncertainty & wanted to lock in some profits ...
If US payroll is good this will rocket.
GLA
sorry forgot to paste why was going down...
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/putin-says-russian-gas-must-be-paid-roubles-friday-2022-03-31/
Shorts down, Oil down, Shanghi closed, covid restrictions being removed from caribean and many other places, loads in all premium cabins oversold on all routes.... Not sure why this is staying static!
what skeleton lieth in the closet!
GLA
They fixed the IT issue, this is overspill and mop up ...
US to release up to 180m barrels of oil from strategic reserves & Shanghi shutting down Futurs up = Blue day for IAG regardless of IT issue.
Gla
How Blue? who knows but might knock on to 150 door.
I just flew back from NYC from a business trip and bumped into the BA manager there. I asked him why I couldnt get my first class seat and he apologised profusely saying they were simply so over booked they were down grading people in every class... i asked why there weren't more flights and he said BA are ramping up as quick as they can and it would be going to 7 flights a week in May and with a 777 300 to the high business config (76??). Cant remember the number but it was much more than 48!.
Apparently they are trying to put on more flights across the airline as the demand is much higher than anticipated and they are struggling due to - lack of crew, specifically cabin crew hence the massive recruitment campaign a few months ago. So i'm guessing this will definately ramp up (excuse the pun) more than 4% and might reach as much as 25% over next few months (Hold tight Bobbins!)
anyway, not official, just straw poll stuff but what with my other post a few days ago. I think this has more upside than downside. ...
GLA
Errr, I thought fundamentals was an important factor!
Granted nuclear holocaust might trump that but is that on the cards? Did I miss something in this mornings paper's whilst i was dipping soldiers in my organic eggs! (yep i can still get organic eggs!!)
What "catalyst' have you read in the tea leaves today Oracle?
GLA