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Looks like price of gas will spike then fall as alternative supplies to russian gas are found. This in turn will reduce Europe's dependency on russian gas and lower the price of gas and inflation by return.
Will take about 3 months to filter through so SP should recover in that time, especially with Q1 results will provide support...
Obvious caveat is pootin crazy dude setting off chemical weapons in Ukraine which is his only next move to counter Ukrain's heroes taking back their land So will dip on that news.
May fortune favour the brave...
GLA
Completly agree, This SP should be rising, not falling. i've just bought in thinking this is the lowest point but maybe i'm wrong.
And Deutche downgrade is but one in dozens and its hold not sell!
If this tree starts shaking I'm holding as its likely to climd just as quick...
gla
was looking at the 'variables' and came to the conclusion it's a buy not a hold as per DB.
So much so that I've just bought back in big time. Reasons are as follows:
1. Covid news is old news
2. Ukraine war is not over and wont be 'over' for many months if not years. That in itself will stop Pootin from expanding westwards.
3. Wars are good for stock markets bad for people.
4. The rapid oil price rise is very temporary. Not only is oil cyclical by its nature but if it gets too high, inflation rises above the magic 2% such that it benefits no one, even oil producers. They are however 'raking' it in and will continue to do so for the next 3 months and then there will be a big slide in oil price and corresponding increase in IAG SP
5. Europe has not yet banned russian oil but it will do so but that wont make a big difference bc when they do (europe) they will do so when the can absorb the 'shock 'to their economies.
6. Whilst the whole of the western world is banning all manner of russian goods/commodities/ and some oil, there are no sanctions on china or India if they buy russian oil and can trade them in Yuan/euros or roubles. i suspect russia will force the purchase of its oil in roubles as that will prop up its own currency...
7. China and India (and many other satellite countries) are bigger purchasers of russian crude than the west now which means the russians are selling at a discounted price, this benefits the 'emerging' economies and makes them much more competitive against the west.
The above needs to be worked through - but I think 3 months will see the oil price significantly fall (below ¢100/b) and IAG sp rise.
There may be an argument to say that inflation will stop people going on holiday etc. i dont believe that for one moment it will for business/middle classes (that Sunak has just rewarded!), except for the tracksuit brigade, so I would not be investing in EJ/RA for that reason, but IAG is a different kettle of fish...
Now SunD has been predicting 200 for as long as I can remember so it's a bit like the girl who cried wolf, he might be right this time but it wont be next week but straight after next set of results and even though Oracle is at the other end of the spectrum, i think there is more chance of a SP rise than a fall now.
just an opinion of course
GLA
LOL as I said not my favorite poster. I havent gone through all is 'predictions' only noted the last few. But I'm not saying he is right but worth considering why he thinks what he does - assuming he gives reasons of course.
I'm on the fence at the moment, Half in Half out simply because I dont know where this is going!
GLA
oracle is not my favorite poster but it has to be said he gets it more right than wrong (just!) and at least backs up his opinion. last time this fell he was saying sub 100 when it was around 140, we all laughed (me included) but it did get to 110! so caveat emptor!!
I think it might fall as Europe has to ban Russian oil even if it is 'Miguel from Barcelona moment ('eventually' )
GLA
@wobbles, if it even got to ¢150 a barrel that would bring about massive inflation (double digits) and a complete change in how the world uses hydrocarbons which in turn would lead to quicker development of alternative energies. So massive SP drop for IAG short to mid term then massive rise as the oil price crashes...
Boom bust all over again!
gla
PS sold a chunk at 141.6 as I think the EU will have no choice but to start an embargo on russian oil. Note a 'start', rather than a complete immediate cut off...
Just an opinion , trying to see the market options!
gla
Sadly none of the above looks to happen anytime soon. Ukrain will not kneel and Pootin cant loose face. Russian playbook unfolding which is a war of attrition. That means high oil prices for some time to come. Unless:
1. OPEC pumps out more oil but this is not looking likely whilst MBS is enjoying his new found power and the UAE are enjoying the big windfalls (the only two OPEC members who have the ability to increase capacity...
2. Even if war ended today, it would take substantial time to remove sanctions even if that were agreed!
3. replacement of hydrocarbons by alternative energy sources.
The fact that Pootin is using hypersonic weapons is a show of force but also a sign of desperation...
So where does that leave the SP? given the above uncertainty, massive fluctuations in SP and looks like 140 is the trading range when it should be higher. But it looks stuck around this level as fuel costs look to rise rapidly in IAG once their hedging has run out!
enjoy the ride guys bc this will go up and down. I just wish I could guess which way it was going today!
gla
Its the week end and Lloyds you've just said it in a nutshell. My sources tell me Ed1's source are not to be relied upon lol.
By simple mathematics and logic, if Ukraine was failing or loosing the war, the west would not pump sophisticated weaponry into Ukraine and planning even more wizardry as they are finalising a small 'iron dome' version of Israel's missile shield. they would not risk that getting into the hands of the russians if Ukraine was about to fall.
It is more likely Pootin will fall before Zelensky and that is why he is becoming more authoritarian... classic despot loosing power but desperate to cling on..... Love the shakespear analogy .... I can just imagine him crying in his vodka!
Gla
@ECarrots
Hard to say if it's profit taking since I expected something similar last week and the SP jumped 10% over the next 3 days on talk of cease fire! This time around I think people are nervous since there is no cease fire and Pootin cant stop a war machine without looking very weak. Zelensky cant stop as he's fighting to save his country which is far more motivating than trying to save face...
Pootins demands are also a no go since Ukraine is not in Nato it will easily be overrun if it gives up its weapons and goes neutral. Everyone knows Pootin is not to be trusted. So it's going to remain a stalemate for some time thats why the west is sending ever more sophisticated weaponry as everyone thought Ukraine would fall in days but they havent and have proved themselves with hearts of lions....so the west is keen to make sure Pootin fails so he does'nt try this with the other ex russian/baltic states..
This is a doomed situation for russia and will irrevocably change not just the 'world order' but also drive innovation for alternative energy. That in turn will drive russia to bankruptcy as people are also changing their energy habits and will buy less oil so the oil price will drop too. Its also a mistake by OPEC to squadder the price and not pump more hydrocarbons as that also increase drive for efficiency.
Whilst this is painful for the west and very painful for Ukraine, it will prove more so for OPEC members and in particular Russia in the medium term.
I just bought a sizeable chunk at 138 as whilst this might fall still a little further it would need a big chock for it to drop much more ...
GLA
safe travels I'm off to New york...
I've seen lots of posts about covid like masks being phased out , all travel restrictions being lifted etc but I'm not convinced they are having any effect on the SP as they are already priced in. Unless we get a new & significant covid variant the covid story is all but over in the pricing of this share.
I think the factors now are:
1. Oil price
2 Inflation
3. Geo politics effecting route structures etc.
Whilst 1 and 2 are high - SP will be low, and whilst oil might drop from one day to the next it's the oil price trend coupled with Geopolitics that will effect the SP.
I'm still holding both shares and dry powder but its difficult to predict what will happen short term. LT i think this will still go up but with time as Pootin is not about to capitulate or climb down... not convinced about any ceasefire either. When his generals start disappearing as he has them whacked one by one, then we will know he is under pressure at home. For the time being he's sitting fat dum and happy in his Lenin palace...
GLA
@Wobbles & Bob (sounds like an american dinner!)
Spot on, call where the SP will be tomorrow night let alone end of week is madness. But dry powder in my 105mm waiting to fire into sp if it falls. Sadly, I also equate a fall will be at the expense of those poor souls in Ukraine so have decided that 10% of profits should go to support Ukraine. Why 10% ? bc approximately 10% of uk oil is supplied by Russia and until its phased out some of those profits should go to Ukraine.
Will the war widen, I suspect it will as Pootin has lost the element of surprise and his economy is crumbling and the Chinese do not want this to spill into their economy as it has only survived decades of being a single party by continued growth. If the Chinese economy stalls, the PLP will **** itself and collapse. China cannot afford for Pootin to win...
SP rock & rolla...GLA
@Deeza
I use two very important measures to buy and sell. The de-rampers are out in force i know we are near the bottom so i buy, and when they go quiet i sell. Works a treat and beats all that chart prediction stuff;-))
but i'm in +ve territory so not worried either way. I just wonder what other cretin ideas Pussytin will have over the weekend....
He makes Saddam hussein look positively sane!
Gl, hope it's going your way...:-)
EC, was fortunate enough to use some dry powder and bought in sub 120, just sold 33% of share holding to bank some profit and provide dry powder again in case SP tanks. TBF I dont think it will, but with cretin you never know!
GLA
@dixy, you bought at 124.5 and you feel stupide bc it has dropped!?? but its only 123.50 now so the drop is miniscule and well within range of normal trading. What were you expecting? That you could buy at exactly the lowest point? even the pro's cant get that right so it makes me feel that perhaps you are a tad disengenuous....?
This may fall to 119 tomorrow and if it does I'll be happy buying xxxk but it may rise too I just hope i get in before 130's as its a steal...:-)
gla
I'm with Lloyds and Brian bru
Whilst it is difficult to verify everything coming out, you dont have to be a rocket scientist to see russians could not supply 100 coaches and civilians being killed does not benefit Ukrain or their agenda one iota. Anyone who suggests that is a troll. i'm not one for conspiracies but i wouldn't be surprised that Tricky125 is exactly that - time to filter this troll.
GLA