Member Info for Suggins

Really good note from SP Angel.

Headline - Buy recommendation with price target of 179p.

Experienced and informed industry professionals at Goldplat, Tyacks and Shangaza (or their respective parent companies) have all recently agreed to take consideration from Caracal in shares. They know.

Or Mr Twitter is busy on other projects today?

Could be the local listing update or sample analysis or plant upgrade. So much good stuff yet to come even after the monster news we’ve just had.

Most definitely, I’m sure their plans assumed the warrant cash by now given what has been achieved. However, there is now another great buying opportunity so I suppose every cloud …

Thank you; your numbers look very sensible.

The Broker uses a total diluted number of shares of 2,000 mn (see front sheet and again in their share price value calculation on page 11).

This just seems wrong as they have only appear to have added the loan shares and what you have identified as the Goldplat shares to our existing number.

They have also completely ignored warrants I think. I hope Caracal kept their receipt for this work.

At page 2 of the broker note I think they have suggested that an additional 166,903,343 shares are required to meet the purchase consideration (under the table).

$3 million is an initial sum required in shares; at 1.3p I think this is around 174,733,846 shares. So this is nonsense straight away, and there is still an additional contingent consideration of $5.25 million to be a paid for in shares as well.

This to me seems a rather key factor of their estimated fair share value but I cannot make head nor tail of it. Add in the rather odd and apparently arbitrary 70:30 value methodology of the mine (resource against cash). I am not sure this updated note is of much use at all.

itsyou; I have a question for you if I may.

Are you able to let me know the assumed share price which the broker, VSA, has used in assessing possible final dilution if the full purchase consideration is made ? The updated note states that when assessing the convertible loan an assumed price of 1.275p has been used but I couldn't see a similar comment for consideration shares. I suppose I could get a calculator out and try to work it out but I just thought you would probably already know the answer.

Many thanks

Maybe the use of old maps has created some apparent discrepancies with the current licence positions. What appears to be a more recent licence map on page 13 of the acquisition presentation does not accord in a number of ways with the older reused plan on the next page. I really don't think it matters though.

Very interesting, many thanks. I imagine you thought some of the maps/diagrams were rather familiar.

If you are a sad sort of person like me you can go to the Tanzanian ministry of mines website and there is an interactive map which shows the various new licence areas:-

https://portal.madini.go.tz/map/

One very slight issue could be that there appears to be an existing prospecting licence in place for a proportion of the purchase area (see licence PL 11583/2021 in the name of David Chiwango). This area seems to sit just south of the proposed Reefs expansion area. Page 13 of the purchase presentation shows this same area as a 'New award Licence' but under a different and perhaps worryingly older reference (Pl 14440/2019). Hopefully Tyacks have already purchased it from Mr Chiwango or otherwise have some explanation. I suppose this is only a small part of the overall area and no licence = no spend. There also appear to be a few much smaller licences within the reef expansion area which again hopefully can just be worked around or bought off.

Say what you like but Tanzanian mining licence maps are a lot more fun that watching the one show.

Do we know what price the consideration shares are to be assigned at ? Today’s price or at the point a milestone is met ?

Thank you appletree; be interesting to read their rationale later.

Where do we think the broker will revise our fair price to now ? Currently 3.3p; must be close to 5p if they adopted any similar methodology.

Just seen our neighbours Shanta’s price movement today, obviously some bad news on production there, but Cora also down today. Tough market it seems.

Looks like the Caracal management team are impressing a lot of people. Everyone wants to join the Gcat party!

‘ Up-front share and cash-based consideration totalling US$3.75 million is due for both Projects, with just US$775,000 payable on settlement of the acquisitions in cash and the US$3.0M balance in shares, which will be subject to minimum 12-month lock-in provisions.’

On first glance these deals look absolutely fantastic, exactly as suggested in the Friday update.

Overall costs low, upfront cash costs very low and balance in shares in due course.

Wow.

New corporate presentation released !

Short term price targets are rather tricky given we are expecting major news anytime but Zac Mir at Vox Markets has today suggested 1.5p this month is very realistic and of course we have the broker note giving a fair value price of 3.3p.

Big increase in volume today; highest for over 2 months I think. Great to see the word getting out.

If the volume stays up then the price can realistically only go one way from current levels.