The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
This were several media tips since Dec.
The Chairman/Founder knows more about the company than any media tips.
Yet, the Chairman/Founder dumped majority of his holding soon after it was tipped and before the forthcoming fy results. He dumped majority of his holding in a DISCOUNTED secondary placing.
The CEO was awarded huge >7m options a year ago and are excercisable from less than a year's time. Of course he would talk it up.
This is being talked up just before CEO can exercise his >7m options.
Those are red flags.
Ricky,
"Stt is constantly talking Hvivo down saying questionable business model, no Institutional investors, low growth etc etc"
That's because I see a questionable business model.
Can you provide evidence where I've said NO IIs to prove you're not making things up or misquoting me?
I've deep concerns about their business model. It's a questionable business model.
I had concerns about other company's business models, CEO options etc. Those company shares went onto crash.
Readers, don't take my word for it. The evidence is in my 2 posts on TLY dated 21st March around 12pm and 1pm.
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/stt1/
The options were back dated a year. Look at the company newsflow since the CEO joined in 2022 and then compare that to the repeated media tips over the past 6 months.
There have been several media tips, presentations since around Christmas. The CEO's options are exercisable from around a year. I don't think that's a coincidence.
There's no evidence of significant buying/holding by institutionS. CEO's options are exercisable within a year. Over the past few months, some IIs have bought a few. 1 now holds > 5%.
The shares are being talked up and CEO's options due within a year. I don't see that as a coincidence.
The Chairman/Founder dumped majority of his holding last month. This was after the shares were talked up in media and presentations.
The Chairman dumping majority of his holding so soon after they were being talked up is a red flag imo.
From company rns
"The LTIP has been designed to reward, incentivise and retainMr Khan to deliver sustainable growth for shareholders. The deemed date of award is 24 February 2022, which is the date Mr Khan was appointed CEO. Under the LTIP,Mr Khan has been awarded 7,227,273 nominal cost long term incentive options ("LTIP Options " ) over ordinary shares of £0.001 each in the Company.
Vesting of the LTIP Options is conditional upon a three-year total shareholder return ("TSR") performance against an initial 11p reference price. A portion of the LTIP Options will vest on the third anniversary of the date of award subject to the achievement of a minimum 10% CAGR TSR performance increasing on a straight-line basis to vesting in full subject to the achievement of a 22.5% CAGR TSR performance. The award of the LTIP Options is also subject to continued employment, malus and clawback provisions and will vest in full on a takeover of the Company."
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/hvivo/news/rns/story/x21q5mw/export
Ricky,
"STT Mo Khan’s LTIP is for the period ended Feb 25 "
That's what I've been saying. More posters are realising what I've been saying and repeating the same.
The CEO was awarded huge 7m options a year ago, exercisable from a year's time.
There's no evidence of significant buying/holding by IIs 2021, 2022, 2023 then over the past few months and just months before CEO's options are exercisable, some have bought tiny amounts. 1 has bought > 5%.
With several media tips, presentations etc, the shares are being talked up since the options are due to become exercisable from less than a year's time.
TLY is an illiquid share, small trades can move it in either direction.
Every company has risk/reward.
There's nothing wrong with posters presenting opinions but the amusing thing is 1gw_ You do overplay the potential and underplay the risks on shares you ramp. Whereas, you overplay the risks and underplay the potential on shares you deramp.
For someone who portrays themselves as well researched, why do virtually all your shares crash and based on the warnings I post?
Byot down 95%, STU bust, Trmr down 80%, Rthm down 80%
Byot - down 95%:
Mine - posting of company/sector newsflow, warning of the risks. https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/stt1/?page=78
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/stt1/?page=76
1gw_ - https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/1gw_/?page=3
"Sttsbumbag" posts on Byot and TLY https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/sttsbumbag/?page=2
Trmr down from around 850p to 200p(now called nexn):
Mine - facts, company newsflow https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/stt1/?page=72
Radium - posts on trmr. tly and refers to 1gw a lot https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/radium1/?page=7
TAP - down 80% (now part of nexn)
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/stt1/?page=114
etc
You have to understand the company/sector, as well as economic, political newsflow. Just picking out comments from rns or TU doesn't always tell you what is happening.
1gw_
(another HVO poster!)
As you are aware, the BoD have explained many times the reasons for the liabilities/assets. In fact, you have been mentioning it (on advfn) for many years (just search for "Horrific" on advfn).
The fact you don't understand how the NHS model (or indeed other suppliers to Govn bodies work) doesn't mean it's a problem for TLY.
Companies win and lose contracts all the time. You mention the NW London contract, yet they have won other contracts within the same division(which you fail to mention!), since the NW London contract came to an end.
Dec 2022 (just before the NW London contract ended)
SE London c£66m contract
https://ir.design-portfolio.co.uk/viewer/100/55210
1st March 2023
National contract c£10m
May 2023 c£12m
https://ir.design-portfolio.co.uk/viewer/100/57538
Mcap £10m
The fact is they expanded their business model to include Elective Care (EC) in 2019. This is a higher margin business and in significant demand. Waiting lists are high and govn needs to bring them down.
It is good business practice for companies to want to end unfavourable contracts and go for better contracts.
As you know, we have both posted on the same shares for many years. Trmr/Byot/HVO/RTHM.
What I find amusing is that the derampers who appear on here also post (invest) in shares you ramp. All those shares subsequently crashed based on the warnings I had posted.
Is that a coincidence?
They comment on 2025 "could" be a boom year.
It could be but that's next year. It'll be 2 years of subdued housing market activity, which is why I thinkpaying dividends whilst demand is subdued is a bad policy.
Dustofnations
"While high % growth can be sustained in the early part of a company's growth phase, as a matter of basic mathematics it's absurd to expect continuous high rates of exponential growth"
That is exactly the point I've been making.
I've stated "growth has slowed significantly".
The suggestion has been that the company is growing fast, booming etc whereas the figures, revenues and order book, don't back it up.
These are their own figures:
H1 2022
Order: £70m
fy 2022
rev £50.7m
Order £76m
H1 2023
Order: £78m
fy 2023
rev: £56m
Order: £80m
fy 2024
Expected Rev £62m
"Of course, this transition to "undramatic, consistent delivery" is much less interesting for traders and speculators"
That's why I think, since December, there's been lots of media hype. To talk the company up.
Hence why I believe the Chairman/Founder dumped majority of his holding. He has the figures and can see the company's strong growth rate has slowed significantly.
Hence why I believe the CEO was awarded > 7m options, so the company is being talked up so they can sell.
Hallsworthy,
You are misquoting me again.
Please read my post of 23.46 and stop misquoting me.
My post clearly states "TU" and not results.
"Last year the interims TU, which mentioned "cash as at 30th June" was in July and not Sept!!"
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/stt1/
Hallsworthy,
"Interesting you say the interims are in June and not September."
Where do I say interims are in June?
My previous post says "period ending June 30th 2024" in reply to your post which says " cash will be higher than 37m in the September interims," .
Last year the interims TU, which mentioned "cash as at 30th June" was in July and not Sept!!
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/hvivo/news/rns/story/rno86jw/export
Crest Holdings reported their TU this morning.
HBs have been paying dividends, resulting in cash dwindling, whilst demand is subdued. I don't see that as a good policy.
If there's huge demand in the UK for property then why are HBs building less?
Reservations still low.
From Crest TU:
"Build activity in the sector continued to operate at a lower level"
Pre 2019 completed sites
Since the publication of the FY23 results, the Group has become aware of certain build defects predominantly on four sites that were completed prior to 2019 when the Group closed its Regeneration and London divisions. These sites will require remediation over the next three years at an estimated cost of up to £15m. As a result, the Board has decided to appoint third party consultants to provide greater assurance on the adequacy of current provisions around these and other sites completed prior to 2019. A further update will be provided at the Group's interim results in June.
Outlook
The Group continues to focus on optimising value and expects FY24 completions to be in the range of 1,800 to 2,000 homes, with completions weighted approximately 35/65% in favour of the second half of the year, reflecting the opening order book and the low level of reservations in the first two months of the financial year."
Hallsworthy
"Yes, cash will be higher than 37m in the September interims, when adding in anything paid out as a dividend in between or anything spent on acquisitions"
I differ. Let's see.
The interims are H1 2024, period ending 30th June 2024 not Sept.
Hallsworthy,
"But they didn't buy in tiny amounts, did they? They bought all of the founders shares and JP Morgan have bought more since too."
You miss the point. The institutions were not buying in 2021, 2022, 2023.
There were several media tips since Dec, so the shares were being talked up.
The Chairman then dumped majority of his holding in Feb
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/hvivo/news/rns_widget/story/xe1g9jw
Despite their intention being to only sell 25%.
https://www.share-talk.com/hvivo-plc-aimhvo-proposed-secondary-placing-of-ordinary-shares/
Provide the evidence where there has been significant(>3%) buying/holding by institutionS prior to them being talked up since Dec?
I don't think it's a coincidence the CEO's 7m options are exercisable in a year and the shares being talked up this year.
Hallsworthy,
"Now you're saying you think cash will be below 37 in the interims (in September? Another stupid error I'm guessing, you didn't mean interims you meant year end). "
Not at all, I mean what I've posted. Interims, ie H12024, which ends 30th June 2024. I think cash will be lower than £37m.
Are you predicting cash will be significantly higher than £37m or won't you say because you are incapable of forming an opinion?
It's funny how you ignore the facts and are very selective in the metrics to suit your agenda.
The Chairman dumped majority of his holding after the media tips or are you denying that was the case???.
It backs up my assertion that they were being talked up so they can sell.
It is a fact.
What's your opinion of where cash will be H12024 or are you refusing to answer because you don't want to embarrass yourself?
Ricky
"You have been on about Hvo being a pump and dump ever since the 9p days and compared it unfavourably with Tly which were 30p+."
That's not the case.
I've been raising questions about the business model since 2021. The sp at that time (Sept 2021) was around 27pp, marginally lower than the current sp and only 1p lower than not much lower than the founder's 28p at which he dumped majority of his holding.
I post the company newsflow.
I raised questions over the business model, the missed expectations.
Whatever happened to the significant value that was supposed to be in DiM and it's IPO???
It's not mentioned anymore is it?
Why's that?
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/stt1/?page=28
If a share is talked up then some will buy in believing what they being told rather than checking facts for themselves.
TLY is just one of the companies I comment on.
Facts are, around 40% of TLY is held by IIs and some were increasing over the past 6months. Plus the Chairman has also been buying.
Plus they have been winning contracts recently.
Mcap £10m
Those are facts.
Ricky,
Onto the points about the company.
"The Company is growing revenue's by £6m + p.a (obviously this equates to a smaller % as they get bigger)"
That's the point, the company is portrayed as if it's growing significantly but the figures say otherwise. Growth has slowed signficiantly.
"obviously this equates to a smaller % as they get bigger"
Yes, obviously.
Yet in their presentation, they quote 15% yoy!!!
"More importantly, profitability and cash generation is moving at a higher percentage"
I think cash will decline from the £37m (stated in the TU) when it comes to the interims.
"you stated on March 13th 'Despite all the talking up, no evidence of significant buying/holding by institutionS.' - which has since been shown to be completely wrong. "
Note the 'S' in institutionS was in caps, so highlighted. There was no evidence of significant buying/holding by institutions in 2021, 2022, 2023. Yet since the CEO gets awarded his huge 7m options, some IIs buy tiny amounts.
Also the CEOs options are due to be exercisable from a year's time. So just months before his options are exercisable, there's an increase in media tips, soon after the Chairman/Founder dumps majority of his holding. Some IIs start to buy in tiny amounts.
This is being talked up.
Ricky
"Stt - you seem to have a grudge against certain posters (who probably cost you after you followed their recommendations)"
On the contrary, I haven't lost anything and I never followed anyone's recommendation. I traded some shares (trmr, rthm, byot), whilst continuing to post the warnings/red flags and rational bear case and sold based on my warnings and assertions and my own opinion.
All documented, see my posts. I sold trmr at 844p, high was around 870p, now around 200p (company now called nexn).
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/stt1/?page=30
Are YOUR investments dependent on what I think and nobody else?
Tell us what will the cash be at 31st March 2024 or the interims?
How much higher than £37m?
Fy2023 Ebitda & margins as well?
Readers can see for my posting history for themselves.
Read pages 70 to 80. Byot was being pumped, I posted the warnings and company/sector newsflow, the rampers more interested in the sp. The shares crashed and company confirmed was saying similar to my warnings.
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/stt1/?page=80
Hallsworthy
Your post:
"Stt, with HVO results around the corner, what revenue and what profit level would you consider "good" with guidance at £56m, already ahead of market expectations"
Why not state what you, given you suggest to others they should ignore me? Is it because you know I've been right in the past on Byot, Trmr, rthm, etc etc...
What would you say the cash as of March 31st or interims will be? Declining or significantly ahead of the £37m?
What about for fy results:
Ebitda?
Margin?