The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Adzy,
Look what's happened to HVO.
Exactly as I predicted, being talked up... CF sells.
Questionable business model.
Check out RTHM, TRMR, Byot.
All pumped and crashed, as predicted.
Polb has zero revenue, £50m mcap!!
Check out TLY, £100m revenue, map £10m
The pump and dumpers are dumping HVO to entice the gullible here.
Dustofnations,
Can you please list these companies you refer to?
Do they have royalty income?
HVO has a questionable business model and needs constantly winning new contracts every few months.
Do these other companies?
Dustofnations,
" Especially when you consider the £80m weighted orderbook."
Their order book is meaningless as it's spread over more than 1 year.
Last year for fy2022, they had an order book of £76m, so it's increased by only 5%!!!
So, again, my point is Where's the strong revenue growth???
I think CF can see revenue growth has stalled.
From TU Jan 2023.
"In 2022, the trend of larger contracts with biopharma clients continued, increasing the size of the Group's orderbook to £76 million as at 31 December 2022"
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/hvivo/news/rns/story/w9j9mdx
OSG.
"The logic behind todays Director sells simply does not make any sense and to me its been dressed up."
The company has been talked up for months.
I believe this secondary placing has been the plan for months.
My posts have been consistent. It was obvious that they were talking up the company.
They have a questionable business model, where the revenue growth has slowed.
£200m for £56m revenue is crazy.
Blackrhino
"The issue is how robust is the business and the answer is very."
The info I previously posted shows the lack of strong revenue growth, the reasons why this was talked up, the huge options awarded to the CEO, the lack of IIs holding etc.
If there was still strong growth ahead then CF would not have sold such a huge quantity.
Moniman,
I hope he sinks a million into Poolbeg"
So you selling here and hoping gullible will buy Polb.
Polb, the company with ZERO revenue, jam tomorrow with Mcap £50m
Really??? You're sounding desperate again.
I think they will 10bag from trough over the next couple of years.
10 bagger in the making.
Yes, I am backing my assertion and adding as and when. Bought some last week and today. My last week's buy appeared as 'sell'.
Look at the options awarded to the CEO, less than a year ago, exercisable in a year and the conditions attached.
Huge > 7m options awarded a year ago and backdated a year to 2022, exercisable in a year.
Look at TLY's chairman, started working only last month and has already bought > 1% using his own money.
That is how companies should work. I think using your own money is more powerful statement than IIs buying a few using client's money or the CEO getting huge free options.
Here, the huge options awarded, exercisable in a year is why I believe this is being talked up.
"The LTIP has been designed to reward, incentivise and retainMr Khan to deliver sustainable growth for shareholders. The deemed date of award is 24 February 2022, which is the date Mr Khan was appointed CEO. Under the LTIP,Mr Khan has been awarded 7,227,273 nominal cost long term incentive options ("LTIP Options " ) over ordinary shares of £0.001 each in the Company.
Vesting of the LTIP Options is conditional upon a three-year total shareholder return ("TSR") performance against an initial 11p reference price. A portion of the LTIP Options will vest on the third anniversary of the date of award subject to the achievement of a minimum 10% CAGR TSR performance increasing on a straight-line basis to vesting in full subject to the achievement of a 22.5% CAGR TSR performance.
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/hvivo/news/rns/story/x21q5mw/export
CEO also bought 500k shares at 9.8p 1.5 yrs ago.
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/hvivo/news/rns/story/w13k73r
There's also lots of PIs on here who were also holding at higher prices, 40p++, and so need the sp to move higher so they can sell.
The £62m is the company own guidance for fy2024, not the 2nd fy2023 I've posted.
Year ends 31st December, so £62m guidance for fy2024, ie 31st December 2024.. this current year.
The 4x revenue I mention is for fy2023, ie 31st December 2023, which they have just completed.
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/hvivo/news/rns/story/xopzn1r/export
Blackrhino,
The mcap is £200m or around 4x revenue!!
That's far too high.
That's for a company where revenue growth has been slowing over the past 3 years. According to the company's own accounts.
Where's the significant revenue growth going forward?
Fy2022: £48.5m (+30%)
Fy2023: £56m (+15.5%)
Fy2023: £62m(+10.7%)
These are the company's own figures
TU shows revenue growth as slowing significantly:
Fy2022: £48.5m (+30%)
Fy2023: £56m (+15.5%)
Fy2023: £62m(+10.7%)
"Full year revenue of £56.0 million, an increase of 15.5% (2022: £48.5 million)
Revenue guidance of£62 million for 2024"
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/hvivo/news/rns/story/xopzn1r/export
There would be a finance dept with staff reporting to the CFO.
If the CFO went on maternity leave for a year or a holiday or dies, companies don't collapse.
There is a question as to why she resigned but I doubt we will ever know. It is quite normal if a CFO resigns for them to leave immediately.
The large trades are interesting. I think there'll be holding notices being published soon, current IIs adjusting or hopefully new ones due to the new Chair's connections.
Interesting times ahead.
Billb,
"Good to see JP Morgan buying shares in HVO."
JPM announced they now have 22m shares. How's that compare to the > 7m free options held by the CEO.
There was no evidence of significant holding/buying by institutions in 2021, 2022, 2023. The CEO awarded huge options a year ago, exercisable in a year and suddenly there's lots of media tips. Coincidence?
The fact the CEO's options are exercisable in a year suggests to me that these are being talked up.
"It's being talked up because it's a rare gem on the AIM market - A profitable, growing business that is now starting to pay regular dividends"
Given your assertion, you'll be loading up at 29p-30p, not selling any and holding for 2 years??
There's no evidence of significant revenue growth.
fy2022 £50m
efy2023 £56m
efy2024 £62m
Where's the substantial revenue growth?
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/hvivo/news/rns/story/xopzn1r/export
" is now starting to pay regular dividends"
They clearly stated in the Interims, they intend to pay nominal dividend.
"Dividend
The Company intends to pay a nominal annual dividend going forward, details of which will be announced alongside publication of the Group's audited results for FY23."
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/hvivo/news/rns/story/rgz9g3w/export
" the total market cap of failing and soon to be bust TLY."
Really? TLY recently announced a national £13m contract. That's on top of the other many contracts giving estimated revenues of around £100m.
Revenues around £100m
Mcap £8m
HVO £56m revenues for fy2023 .
£200m mcap
" soon to be bust TLY"
Why? It's interesting the posts from you, Hallsworthy, Moniman, The Soundman on the TLY thread.
https://www.lse.co.uk/ShareChat.html?ShareTicker=TLY&share=Totally
Is the success of your investment dependant on TLY and not the fundamentals of HVO? What about the red flag re clients largely paying for their new facility? Or Huge Shares on Loan during 2023?
Then again if readers look at ad vfn and select TLY. Select the "Don't forget the warrants thread" and search for "2010". Is the content of that post a coincidence as to what is posted on here?
Kilman
"on current price that's an EPS of about 2.3p(50% more than 2023). Quite bullish sir!"
Very bullish from SZ, given Cavendish, the company broker, has EPS 1.4p for fy2023.
Always best to check the metrics for yourselves.
Dustofnations/GeordieChris
"In our hypothetical example, you receive £100,000 up front, and can recognise 1/24th of it each month as the service is delivered to the customer.
It is more complicated in HVO's case because they have non-refundable elements, each project has its own schedule for deliverables and payment (as agreed with the customer), and, not all of the cash is necessarily received up front."
"he has zero concept of deferred revenue recognition double entry. he really needs to enroll on an 'accounting for dummies' course"
Thank you for the clarification.
That's one for Hallsworthy, Moniman then as well.
TLY has a similar model, they get paid some cash upfront. They win contracts from the NHS, HMP etc. They then get paid monthly, which is deferred income.
Yet on TLY the same posters are claiming TLY have high liabilities.
Maybe that "accounting for dummies" course is perfect for Hallsworthy, Moniman etc as well then.
Unless they are spinning the same metrics depending on whether they are desperately ramping/deramping....
Hallsworthy's post, 1st Feb 08.16:
Short term liabilities so high and huge red flag in the fact they have a SINGLE CUSTOMER in the NHS.
Moniman 1st Feb 08.56
"Appears to be a HUGE red flag about cash levels and government contracts. Another HUGE red flag appears to be margin pressure as NHS is running on empty it seems"
Read the "Sinking ship" and the "Huge cash burn" threads.
https://www.lse.co.uk/ShareChat.html?ShareTicker=TLY&share=Totally
Btw, neither are true, as there's dozens of NHS' (local health boards) within the UK. Their margins are as high as 40% on some contracts, outside of NHS.