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1gw_
You post selected metrics to suit your agenda, depending on whether you're ramping/deramping.
HVO has liabilities yet you prefer not to mention them. Likewise, so did Trmr, Byot, rthm etc, Byot crashed 95% and the others around 80% based on the red flags I posted.
TLY paid upto £13m, part cash, part deferred cash, part share issue. That is perfectly normal for a company to do so. In fact your Byot and HVO have done exactly the same, yet you don't express any concerns with them.
"The total consideration for the Acquisition is up to £13.0 million (the "Consideration"), on a cash-free and debt-free basis. The Consideration is to be paid 80% in cash and the remaining 20% will be satisfied by the issue of new ordinary shares in Totally. £6.9 million is payable on completion, on a cash-free and debt-free basis, and up to £6.1 million is payable on a deferred basis, based on the financial performance of Pioneer in the year ending 31 March 2022."
https://ir.design-portfolio.co.uk/viewer/100/29531
Meconopsis
Sorry for the delay in replying to your post last Sunday.
I agree with the vast majority of your post.
"You can’t equate a distressed sale with the state of the housing market for house builders. "
I think you can because sellers are distressed due to need of money, whether that be due to high debt or affordability.
"I don’t know where you get the supporting evidence for there being “a huge debt crisis”."
Official figures which show govn debt is around 100% of GDP. A lot of govn around the world built up huge debt since GFC. Look at China where the housing market is collapsing. I think the assumption was interest rates and inflation will remain low but nobody allowed for the biggest pandemic in 100yrs.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicspending/bulletins/ukgovernmentdebtanddeficitforeurostatmaast/march2023
Local councils going bankrupt, Birmingham is just one with loss of hundreds of jobs.
Businesses closing down.
Number of individuals with high debt.
"One thing to remember about interest rate cuts is they take effect more quickly than interest rate rises. If the interest rate falls then you can make a choose to remortgage to a lower rate. You don’t do that when rates rise."
Agree but the problem is for those whose with 2-5yr fixed rate mortgages, due to re remortgage, the rates are still significantly higher, double what they have been used to. Compared to 1990s, nowadays 2 partners take on the mortgage at 5-6x income and use a significant portion of their income on the mortgage. That doesn't leave much headroom is they run low on disposable income. They can't work any more. Previously, it used to be 1 person took on the mortgage at 3-4 x their income, so if needed a partner could look for part time work to make up the shortfall.
In terms of govn help as the GE is due. Govn help only makes things worse and pushes the problem further down the road.
I think govn need to look at whether there is a 'cartel' with the HBs. It certainly looks that way to me.
I believe the huge debt is a pack of cards which will collapse.
There's also the increasing threat of the war in the ME spreading. That together with the other conflicts/potential conflicts around the world, so there's increasing likely to be a stock market crash. HBs sps are not immune to stock market movements.
Backs up my stance that there's 4 separate NHS systems at National levels, in the UK. NHS England, NHS Wales, NHS Scotland, NHS NI.
Each country's NHS takes a separate view on how to deal with healthcare within their own country. That's 4 different customers at National level.
From the official NHS Confederation website.
Devolution in the UK has led to four different health systems, each taking slightly different approaches to delivering health and care.
https://www.nhsconfed.org/articles/can-we-make-direct-comparisons-between-nhs-england-and-wales
TLY's £13m contract (extension), with 30% uplift from original, was awarded by NHS England (National level).
It's obvious some posters don't understand and are ignorant as to how the NHS works. They see "NHS" and think everyone is controlled by the UK govn!!!
Crossley,
The housing market outlook is still very uncertain. The HBs have stated that. There's a lot of reliance/hope on interest rates falling. Whereas I believe the problem is affordability.
Look at the TUs. % usage of incentives have doubled. Order book is down and cash has declined.
They don't know how long the downturn is going to last, so need to conserve cash.
There's a huge debt crisis.
In terms of the housing market, there have already been hundreds of properties sold by REITs at a huge, avg 68% loss.
137 properties sold at average 68% loss
https://www.investmentweek.co.uk/news/4130172/home-reit-offloads-137-properties-average-68-loss
During covid, TLY also withdrew their guidance. This was because some parts of the business were impacted due to the covid restrictions.
Once all divisions were re-opened, guidance was re-instated. The shares surged.
I think the current guidance was suspended because of the Junior doctors strike. Elective Surgery would be impacted but the demand for NHS 111 services would surge.
TLY's diversified business model.. lower demand for one division, higher demand for the other.
TLY diversified business model:
Urgent Care
Elective Care
Company Wellness
https://www.totallyplc.com/our-services/
Elective surgeries cancelled, NHS 111 calls surge
The elective operations will still need to be performed sometime in the future, so even more business to come.
Junior doctors’ strike led to more than 110,000 patients in England having care cancelled
Impact of six-day stoppage means NHS has had to rearrange more than 1.3m appointments over past 13 months
"In all 113,779 appointments were cancelled. That total included 104,551 outpatient appointments and 9,228 elective – or non-urgent – operations. But the true number of appointments postponed is “likely to be even higher in reality”, Powis said, because many hospitals now scheduled less care on days when junior doctors would be on strike."
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2024/jan/10/junior-doctors-strike-led-to-130000-patients-in-england-having-care-cancelled
Those who read a d v f n BB.
Look at TLY threads there.
Look at the "Don't forget the warrants" thread.
Search for "2010".
There seems to be a good explanation in the 1st post as to what has happening, especially with the hundreds of trades.
I didn't think the TW. TU was good.
The figures from the TU shows how the housing market/HBs remains weak and uncertain.
TW:
Weekly sales rate falling.
Order book down 8.7%.
Net cash declined, 21%, £180m to £678m.
Outlook remains uncertain
Previous times, it's taken years for the market to recover. They need the market to recover quickly or conserve cash, sell assets, cut dividend. If there's another major drain, like Ground Rent scandal or fire safety improvements, they could find themselves using more cash than they expected.
Taylor Wimpey's full-year average weekly private sales rate fell from 0.68 to 0.62 as a result of "difficult market conditions".
The group completed 10,848 new homes over 2023, down from 14,154 in the prior year. Average private selling prices in the UK rose by 5.1% to £370,000.
Taylor Wimpey's order book slipped 8.7% lower to £1.8bn. The group's net cash position fell from £864mn to £678mn.
Full-year operating profit is expected to be at the top end of the group's £440-£470mn guidance range.
Heading into the new year, the market remains uncertain but Taylor Wimpey expects recent mortgage rate reductions to improve affordability for buyers. Build cost inflation is set to run at around 4% in the first half.
https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/share-research/202401/taylor-wimpey-profit-expected-at-top-end-of-guidance
I didn't think the TU was good.
The figures from the TU says it all
Weekly sales rate falling.
Order book down 8.7%.
Net cash declined, 21%, £180m to £678m.
Outlook remains uncertain
Previous times, it's taken years for the market to recover. They need the market to recover quickly or conserve cash, sell assets, cut dividend. If there's another major drain, like Ground Rent scandal or fire safety improvements, they could find themselves using more cash than they expected.
Taylor Wimpey's full-year average weekly private sales rate fell from 0.68 to 0.62 as a result of "difficult market conditions".
The group completed 10,848 new homes over 2023, down from 14,154 in the prior year. Average private selling prices in the UK rose by 5.1% to £370,000.
Taylor Wimpey's order book slipped 8.7% lower to £1.8bn. The group's net cash position fell from £864mn to £678mn.
Full-year operating profit is expected to be at the top end of the group's £440-£470mn guidance range.
Heading into the new year, the market remains uncertain but Taylor Wimpey expects recent mortgage rate reductions to improve affordability for buyers. Build cost inflation is set to run at around 4% in the first half.
https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/share-research/202401/taylor-wimpey-profit-expected-at-top-end-of-guidance
NHS England waiting list 7.61m v 7.71m in Oct.
NHS Waiting lists higher than when pledge made by PM to reduce them.
The govn will have to do more, including more use of private providers, like TLY, if they want to win the GE. Given the NHS is used as a political football when it's come to the GE, I'd expect to see more business coming TLY way.
Everyone needs healthcare.
NHS waiting list even higher than before Rishi Sunak pledge
The PM ‘increasingly unlikely’ to hit target to reduce the waiting list – as pledged a year ago – with just months until April deadline
"Fresh data from NHS England shows the waiting list for routine hospital treatment in England has fallen for the second month in a row, from 7.71m in October to an estimated 7.61million in November."
"But analysis shows the waiting list stood at 7.21million when he made the pledge at the start of 2023. There would need to be a 400,000 drop in the December 2023 data – which is not yet published – to return the waiting list to what it was when the pledge was made, let alone cut it.
The statistics – which relate to the period before the latest round of junior doctor strikes – also show a number of other key NHS targets are being missed, including on cancer, ambulance handovers and the number of patients waiting longer than 18 months for treatment."
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/ae-waits-nhs-england-b2476902.html
Vox's opinion:
Continued Trust and dependence by NHS on Private Partnerships
"The contract extension is not just a testament to Totally’s operational efficiency and expertise in handling high-demand healthcare services but also signals a continued trust and dependence by NHS England on private partnerships to support public health systems. "
"Moreover, this development highlights the ongoing challenges faced by the NHS, particularly in meeting the increasing demands for urgent and emergency care services.
As Totally plc steps into its extended role, the focus will be on maintaining service excellence and adapting to the evolving needs of the NHS 111 service."
https://www.voxmarkets.co.uk/articles/totally-awarded-key-nhs-contract-extension-valued-at-13-million-efb424e/
The fact the % use of incentives doubled
Help to Buy ending and higher mortgage rates has impacted demand.
Housing market remains uncertain. Use of incentives doubled.
I see HBs as "best to trade"
From the TU:
"albeit with demand lower than previous years as a result of high interest rates and the removal of Help-to-Buy."
"We anticipate market conditions will remain highly uncertain during 2024, particularly for first-time buyers and with an election likely this year. However, mortgage rates are beginning to ease, and the response to our recent Boxing Day campaign has been positive, generating a substantial number of leads for our sales teams. "
Totally gets one-year extension to NHS 111 contract
"“Totally has significant experience in providing quality, resilient and responsive NHS 111 services,” said chief executive officer Wendy Lawrence.
“To date we have answered almost half a million calls as part of the NHS England's National Resilience programme.
“These calls would otherwise have gone unanswered leaving those seeking to access care without the support they needed.”
Lawrence said that as demand had increased, Totally had increased capacity to help ensure that calls to NHS 111 nationally were not abandoned.
“The extension of this contract for a further year means that Totally continues to be a core partner in the delivery of NHS 111 services until February 2025.”"
https://www.sharecast.com/news/aim-bulletin/totally-gets-one-year-extension-to-nhs-111-contract--15809116.html
Totally Awarded Key NHS Contract Extension Valued at £13 Million
"In a significant development for UK healthcare,
Totally (TLY), a premier provider of frontline healthcare services, has been granted a noteworthy extension to its contract with NHS England. "
"The contract, initially set at around £10 million per annum, was first announced on 16 January 2023. The extension, effective from 16 February 2024, marks a substantial increase in value and commitment, reflecting the growing demand for NHS 111 services."
https://www.voxmarkets.co.uk/articles/totally-awarded-key-nhs-contract-extension-valued-at-13-million-efb424e/
Persimmon warns of 'uncertain' housing market but selling prices rise
Persimmon expects the UK property market to remain 'highly uncertain' this year, particularly for first-time buyers, as a general election looms.
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-12946257/Persimmon-warns-uncertain-housing-market-selling-prices-rise.html
These are company and Company broker announcements and show declining cash.
They also show lack of strong revenue growth.
Cash:
30th June 2023 £31.3m
Expected cash Dec 31st 2024: £28m
July TU:
"Net cash of £31.3 million as at 30 June 2023 (H1 2022: £15.9 million)"
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/hvivo/news/rns/story/rno86jw/export
Revenue:
The forecast for fy2024 is £60m
fy2022 £50m
efy2023 £55m
efy2024 £60m
Where's the substantial revenue growth?
Fy2023:
H1 2023: fy2022 £50m to fy2023 guidance £55m - that's around 10-11%
"hVIVO increases its revenue guidance to GBP55 million (excluding other income) for 2023"
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/hvivo/news/rns/story/rgz9g3w
fy24:
Brokers expecting £60m
So even with the new facility up and running in Q1 2024, they expect fy2024 revenue to increase by ONLY £5m.
BillB,
""To take the time to give us a mention when TLY is down another few % today is good of you.""
There you go, yesterday down on a few tiny sells, up today on a few chunkier buys. That's what happens with illiquid shares.
A massive 30% uplift to the original contract as well.
It's a national contract as well, not restricted to ICB, local health bodies.
It proves the detractors wrong. The NHS isn't abandoning TLY.
NHS would have done a risk assessment and the fact TLY have been granted
New contracts signed over the past year and contract extensions.
£13m contract extension.
£10m Mcap.
BillB,
"To take the time to give us a mention when TLY is down another few % today is good of you."
Yes, I noticed, down 5% at 4.62p.
Have you seen the tiny trades, majority under £5 each? Who would make a trade of £1-£5?? That's the thing about shares which are illiquid, they move both ways very quickly on small trades. I'm sure there'll be a similar surge upwards soon once they issue a TU.
Anyway, looks like HVO has stalled around the 26p mark for a week.
The sp hasn't moved on over the past week (it was around 26p a week ago).
Previously, the so has been:
Dec 2020 22p
Dec 2021 24p
Dec 2022 10.20p
Feb 2023 21.5p
Dec 2023 23.75p
Given the sudden interest over the past few weeks, no TU from the company and the CEO's huge 7m options, I think it's been talked up.
Given the current company newsflow and my bear points:
No evidence of significant buying by institutions.
No evidence of significant holdings by institutions,
Huge options, 7m, held by CEO,
declining cash,
revenue growth has slowed,
huge shares on loan,
missed expectations,
questionable business model,
etc
I think the current potential is factored into the price, 26.75p.
If traders now move to sell or PIs take more then the sp can fall quickly, as it's done before. Look at last year's graph or when the sp was in the 40s, the sp crashed back down.
Let's see...