Cobus Loots, CEO of Pan African Resources, on delivering sector-leading returns for shareholders. Watch the video here.
NHS England waiting list 7.61m v 7.71m in Oct.
NHS Waiting lists higher than when pledge made by PM to reduce them.
The govn will have to do more, including more use of private providers, like TLY, if they want to win the GE. Given the NHS is used as a political football when it's come to the GE, I'd expect to see more business coming TLY way.
Everyone needs healthcare.
NHS waiting list even higher than before Rishi Sunak pledge
The PM ‘increasingly unlikely’ to hit target to reduce the waiting list – as pledged a year ago – with just months until April deadline
"Fresh data from NHS England shows the waiting list for routine hospital treatment in England has fallen for the second month in a row, from 7.71m in October to an estimated 7.61million in November."
"But analysis shows the waiting list stood at 7.21million when he made the pledge at the start of 2023. There would need to be a 400,000 drop in the December 2023 data – which is not yet published – to return the waiting list to what it was when the pledge was made, let alone cut it.
The statistics – which relate to the period before the latest round of junior doctor strikes – also show a number of other key NHS targets are being missed, including on cancer, ambulance handovers and the number of patients waiting longer than 18 months for treatment."
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/ae-waits-nhs-england-b2476902.html
Vox's opinion:
Continued Trust and dependence by NHS on Private Partnerships
"The contract extension is not just a testament to Totally’s operational efficiency and expertise in handling high-demand healthcare services but also signals a continued trust and dependence by NHS England on private partnerships to support public health systems. "
"Moreover, this development highlights the ongoing challenges faced by the NHS, particularly in meeting the increasing demands for urgent and emergency care services.
As Totally plc steps into its extended role, the focus will be on maintaining service excellence and adapting to the evolving needs of the NHS 111 service."
https://www.voxmarkets.co.uk/articles/totally-awarded-key-nhs-contract-extension-valued-at-13-million-efb424e/
The fact the % use of incentives doubled
Help to Buy ending and higher mortgage rates has impacted demand.
Housing market remains uncertain. Use of incentives doubled.
I see HBs as "best to trade"
From the TU:
"albeit with demand lower than previous years as a result of high interest rates and the removal of Help-to-Buy."
"We anticipate market conditions will remain highly uncertain during 2024, particularly for first-time buyers and with an election likely this year. However, mortgage rates are beginning to ease, and the response to our recent Boxing Day campaign has been positive, generating a substantial number of leads for our sales teams. "
Totally gets one-year extension to NHS 111 contract
"“Totally has significant experience in providing quality, resilient and responsive NHS 111 services,” said chief executive officer Wendy Lawrence.
“To date we have answered almost half a million calls as part of the NHS England's National Resilience programme.
“These calls would otherwise have gone unanswered leaving those seeking to access care without the support they needed.”
Lawrence said that as demand had increased, Totally had increased capacity to help ensure that calls to NHS 111 nationally were not abandoned.
“The extension of this contract for a further year means that Totally continues to be a core partner in the delivery of NHS 111 services until February 2025.”"
https://www.sharecast.com/news/aim-bulletin/totally-gets-one-year-extension-to-nhs-111-contract--15809116.html
Totally Awarded Key NHS Contract Extension Valued at £13 Million
"In a significant development for UK healthcare,
Totally (TLY), a premier provider of frontline healthcare services, has been granted a noteworthy extension to its contract with NHS England. "
"The contract, initially set at around £10 million per annum, was first announced on 16 January 2023. The extension, effective from 16 February 2024, marks a substantial increase in value and commitment, reflecting the growing demand for NHS 111 services."
https://www.voxmarkets.co.uk/articles/totally-awarded-key-nhs-contract-extension-valued-at-13-million-efb424e/
Persimmon warns of 'uncertain' housing market but selling prices rise
Persimmon expects the UK property market to remain 'highly uncertain' this year, particularly for first-time buyers, as a general election looms.
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-12946257/Persimmon-warns-uncertain-housing-market-selling-prices-rise.html
These are company and Company broker announcements and show declining cash.
They also show lack of strong revenue growth.
Cash:
30th June 2023 £31.3m
Expected cash Dec 31st 2024: £28m
July TU:
"Net cash of £31.3 million as at 30 June 2023 (H1 2022: £15.9 million)"
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/hvivo/news/rns/story/rno86jw/export
Revenue:
The forecast for fy2024 is £60m
fy2022 £50m
efy2023 £55m
efy2024 £60m
Where's the substantial revenue growth?
Fy2023:
H1 2023: fy2022 £50m to fy2023 guidance £55m - that's around 10-11%
"hVIVO increases its revenue guidance to GBP55 million (excluding other income) for 2023"
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/hvivo/news/rns/story/rgz9g3w
fy24:
Brokers expecting £60m
So even with the new facility up and running in Q1 2024, they expect fy2024 revenue to increase by ONLY £5m.
BillB,
""To take the time to give us a mention when TLY is down another few % today is good of you.""
There you go, yesterday down on a few tiny sells, up today on a few chunkier buys. That's what happens with illiquid shares.
A massive 30% uplift to the original contract as well.
It's a national contract as well, not restricted to ICB, local health bodies.
It proves the detractors wrong. The NHS isn't abandoning TLY.
NHS would have done a risk assessment and the fact TLY have been granted
New contracts signed over the past year and contract extensions.
£13m contract extension.
£10m Mcap.
BillB,
"To take the time to give us a mention when TLY is down another few % today is good of you."
Yes, I noticed, down 5% at 4.62p.
Have you seen the tiny trades, majority under £5 each? Who would make a trade of £1-£5?? That's the thing about shares which are illiquid, they move both ways very quickly on small trades. I'm sure there'll be a similar surge upwards soon once they issue a TU.
Anyway, looks like HVO has stalled around the 26p mark for a week.
The sp hasn't moved on over the past week (it was around 26p a week ago).
Previously, the so has been:
Dec 2020 22p
Dec 2021 24p
Dec 2022 10.20p
Feb 2023 21.5p
Dec 2023 23.75p
Given the sudden interest over the past few weeks, no TU from the company and the CEO's huge 7m options, I think it's been talked up.
Given the current company newsflow and my bear points:
No evidence of significant buying by institutions.
No evidence of significant holdings by institutions,
Huge options, 7m, held by CEO,
declining cash,
revenue growth has slowed,
huge shares on loan,
missed expectations,
questionable business model,
etc
I think the current potential is factored into the price, 26.75p.
If traders now move to sell or PIs take more then the sp can fall quickly, as it's done before. Look at last year's graph or when the sp was in the 40s, the sp crashed back down.
Let's see...
DavidHos,
"I suspect it’s a couple of buys for the same buyer worked over the previous 2-3 trading days"
Exactly. Churning by the same group. I've seen it several times on various shares.
The hundreds of small trades to move the sp.
It was really obvious at TLY, where there were hundreds of small trades to push the sp lower. Yet there's only a handful of PIs.
GeordieChris,
"Surely few people are selling now that the stock has momentum and sentiment is firmly back....Anyone any ideas?"
It's been talked up. There hasn't been any TU to justify such a rise, just lots of media tips. Why the sudden interest this year? The CEO's huge 7m options are exercisable in a year.
The sp is at around previous year's year end closing price, hence why some are selling. Look at last year, in Feb the sp was 21.5p before it fell during the year, only to end the end at similar sp.
Previous closing sp:
Dec 2020 22p
Dec 2021 24p
Dec 2022 10.20p
Feb 2023 21.5p
Dec 2023 23.75p
Thordon,
Good summary.
"its the mix that is attractive with 5 clients in UK & Northern Ireland & Southern Ireland."
They don't have 5 clients. They have 5 Nations that they provide their services in. In fact, they have dozens of clients and potential clients for Urgent Care division.
The 5 Nations - all 4 UK Nations plus Republic of Ireland.
Each of the 4 UK Nations have their own NHS.
Each of the 4 UK Nations has lots of 'local health bodies'. NHS England has 42 ICBs as follows:
https://www.nhs.uk/nhs-services/find-your-local-integrated-care-board/
Each ICB has it's own funds, which it uses for the services they require. This is after they have paid for mandatory services, as required by the government.
Each of the UK Nations has similar 'local NHS Bodies'
There are over 60 such 'local NHS Bodies' across all 4 UK Nations. That's over 60 client/potential clients.
TLY also provide services to HMP. There are over 100 HMPs in UK.
TLY also provide services for Elective Care, higher margin business. Here they have dozens of clients/potential clients, including Republic of Ireland.
TLY also provide services to Company Wellness Services. The number of clients/potential clients can be in the 100s.
This is the power of their diversified business model.
UK house prices rise again but Halifax forecasts up to 4% drop in 2024
Growth rates driven by shortage of properties on market, says mortgage lender, with typical home worth £287,105
"However, Halifax said that the monthly, quarterly and annual growth rates were driven by a shortage of properties on the market rather than strong buyer demand."
"However, analysts at Goldman Sachs have estimated that UK homeowners are facing a £19bn increase in mortgage costs by the end of next year as millions more fixed-rate deals expire, putting additional strain on household finances.
Halifax still expects house prices to fall by up to 4% this year as high interest rates and inflation stretch mortgage affordability.
The lender said that the price of an average UK property would fall by between 2% and 4% this year, despite a new year mortgage rate-cutting spree by major lenders."
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/jan/05/uk-house-prices-rise-for-third-month-in-row-but-are-forecast-to-drop-this-year
UK house prices rise again but Halifax forecasts up to 4% drop in 2024
Growth rates driven by shortage of properties on market, says mortgage lender, with typical home worth £287,105
"However, Halifax said that the monthly, quarterly and annual growth rates were driven by a shortage of properties on the market rather than strong buyer demand."
"However, analysts at Goldman Sachs have estimated that UK homeowners are facing a £19bn increase in mortgage costs by the end of next year as millions more fixed-rate deals expire, putting additional strain on household finances.
Halifax still expects house prices to fall by up to 4% this year as high interest rates and inflation stretch mortgage affordability.
The lender said that the price of an average UK property would fall by between 2% and 4% this year, despite a new year mortgage rate-cutting spree by major lenders."
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/jan/05/uk-house-prices-rise-for-third-month-in-row-but-are-forecast-to-drop-this-year
Hallsworthy
"Nice to see River and Mercantile have taken an opening position of 2.53% or 6.6m shares."
Really?
2.53% with 6.6m shares?? How do you work that out given there are around 680m shares in issue?
The CEO has 7m options. So, according to your calculation, does his options equal 2.5% off the company?
The CEO's 7m options are more than R&M shareholding. That says a lot.
The LTIP has been designed to reward, incentivise and retainMr Khan to deliver sustainable growth for shareholders. The deemed date of award is 24 February 2022, which is the date Mr Khan was appointed CEO. Under the LTIP,Mr Khan has been awarded 7,227,273 nominal cost long term incentive options ("LTIP Options " ) over ordinary shares of £0.001 each in the
Company.
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/hvivo/news/rns/story/x21q5mw/export
StrinctlyZinc
"maybe this is where meaningful II ownership takes off."
Backs up my opinion that this is being talked up.
The CEO's has huge 7m options which are exercisable in a year.
Lack of strong revenue growth.
Declining cash.
No evidence of significant holdings by institutions.
No evidence of significant buying by institutions.
Kilman
"On the share register on hVivo(updated 13th December) it lists Canaccord Genuity Wealth Management as having 3.19% ownership"
You mentioned Canaccord Wealth Management.
Canaccord is TLY's Nomad.
Canaccord also own over 3% of TLY.
Canaccord had a 30p target on TLY, compared to HVO Nomad's target of 29p.
The Nomads are closer to the business than media and PIs.
"if you anonymised the financial accounts of hVivo and TLY and provided them to 100 investors and asked them where they would put there money. "
Investors look for potential.
The vast majority of potential in HVO is already factored into the price. The Nomad target price is 29p.
With TLY, the vast majority of downside is already factored into the price. The potential is not.
Investors look for shares where there's best potential.
TLY's Nomad, Canaccord had a 30p target price on TLY.
HVO's Nomad, Liberum a 29p target price on HVO.
Using the Nomad target prices:
HVO's upside is majority factored in the price.
TLY's upside is around 500%