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Mcap £160m
All that is already known.
You forgot the company broker/nomad, who have all that information and their target price is only 29p and compared to a rival's takeover.
So IF HVO receive a takeover the bid may be around 29p.
Compare that to the current 23.75p.
Happy New Year all.
Shandy,
Cash would change but they are supposed to be a strongly growing business.
Despite receiving money due to exercise of warrants and revenues from Polb as of Q3, the expected cash is declining. You would expect cash to be increasing and not declining.
It might explain why they don't pay regular, normal, dividends.
Might also explain why this is being talked up and they wanting to sell it.
30th June 2023 £31.3m
Expected cash Dec 31st: £28m
July TU:
"Net cash of £31.3 million as at 30 June 2023 (H1 2022: £15.9 million)"
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/hvivo/news/rns/story/rno86jw/export
Shandypants,
"he's been pushing TLY when it was over 30p, now 5p!"
TLY -
You fail to mention all the other shares which have moved as predicted. Why only TLY? Trmr crashed from 850p to 200p, Nano crashed from 70p to 18p, Byot crashed 10p to 0.7p.
In all cases the company newsflow themselves vindicated the warnings I was posting. My posts are there for all to see.
Facts:
TLY.
The shares are illiquid. There were hundreds of small sells, yet only a handful of PIs.
40% of TLY are held by IIs and some were increasing recently.
New chair, announced only 6 weeks ago has already bought 1.5m shares.
Revenues £100m+
Cash in bank £1.7m as of H1 end and received around £2.5m post period end.
£10m mcap
Everyone needs healthcare.
Given the GE this year, all parties will want to tackle the huge waiting lists.
With HVO;
There's no evidence of IIs buying since July. There's no evidence of significant holdings by Institution Investors. Who owns > 3%
The CEO owns huge 7m options.
Often CEOs/directors who have huge options talk up the business in an attempt to get the price up ready for a big sell, wouldn't they?
"Says HVO has no growth but quotes"
Where do I say NO growth, that's not true. I've been saying "lack of revenue growth"
Given they are supposed to be a strong growing company, where's the strong revenue growth? Even with the new facility their expected revenue growth is around 10%.
Declining cash
Questionable business model.
Huge shares on loan.
HVO Mcap £160m
TLY Mcap £10m
The forecasts show that they are not fast growing, even with the new facility, the forecast for 2024 doesn't show significant growth.
These are being talked up.
The company own broker/nomad has a target price of 29p, so why would anyone pay more than around that price???
There's no evidence of Institution Investors holding significant amounts, ie > 3%. Therefore, IF any offer is made, there's going to be nothing PIs can do.
FACTS:
fy2022 £50m
efy2023 £55m
efy2024 £60m
So, where's the substantial revenue growth?
Fy2023:
H1 2023: fy2022 £50m to fy2023 guidance £55m - that's around 10-11%
"hVIVO increases its revenue guidance to GBP55 million (excluding other income) for 2023"
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/hvivo/news/rns/story/rgz9g3w
So even with the new facility up and running in Q1 2024, they expect fy2024 revenue to increase by ONLY £5m. Really?
Trout,
Warrant holders were selling warrants months before they were due to expire. Remind us at what's avg price of CF's holding?
Mo, CEO, has huge 7m options.
This is being talked up as it's obvious CF is calling the shots and wants to sell the business.
Both parties use house building as a political football.
The housing market needs help because of falling transactions.
Help to Buy scheme ended over a year ago. Housebuilders made millions of pounds from the scheme. That is no longer available and there's isn't a comparable scheme on offer.
Any tinkering by the govn only kicks the problem further down the alley.
House prices need to fall so more can afford to buy and live.
Affordability is still a major problem.
Despite receiving money due to exercise of warrants and revenues from Polb as of Q3, the expected cash is declining. You would expect cash to be increasing and not declining.
30th June 2023 £31.3m
Expected cash Dec 31st: £28m
July TU:
"Net cash of £31.3 million as at 30 June 2023 (H1 2022: £15.9 million)"
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/hvivo/news/rns/story/rno86jw/export
Money from exercise of warrants:
hVIVO plc (AIM & Euronext: HVO)has received notice of exercise of warrants by
a former nomad and corporate finance advisor
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/hvivo/news/rns/story/x8mkeew/export
Despite the new facility going live Q1 2024, there's no strong growth going forward.
You would expect revenue expectations to be significantly higher for 2024 but they are not. Why not?
The DM were reviewing their tip for 2023, just as tip sheets normally do.
They've said investors could take a profit but then talk about supportive investors, ie a Hold for 2024.
They had HVO as a buy for 2023 and a hold for 2024. Not surprising given the current price is just below the target price.
" hVivo has delivered handsomely for shareholders and some may wish to bank profit at 22p. But there is plenty more in store from this stock next year and beyond. Supportive investors should stick with Khan and his team. "
Read the company newsflow.
As I've said before, this is being talked up.
CF exercised some warrants not long ago.
"hVIVO plc (AIM & Euronext: HVO)has received notice of exercise of warrants by
a former nomad and corporate finance advisor"
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/hvivo/news/rns/story/x8mkeew/export
The CEO has huge 7m options which are due to exercise in just over a year.
Iwantthatone,
" If you think the cost of a self-employed contractor is less than a permie I think you are deluded!"
You need to look at the business model.
The elective procedures take place over the weekend and evenings when OT are not normally in use. Procedures take place as and when there's a match between procedures required and consultants availability.
As procedures happen weekends, why would it be cheaper to hire a consultant on full time, sitting around on weekdays when there are no procedures planned?
It's cheaper to hire a specialist as and when there's a procedure, in which they specialise takes place.
TLY do also have full time staff, needed regardless of procedure, eg nurses during operation, aftercare.
You're assuming that the same contracted consultants are needed for every procedure, which is clearly not the case.
Kilman,
They should also be receiving income from Polb. Polb had access to HVO data FOC until Sept, this year. That should counter some of the excluded R&D credits.
They should have the new facility setup within the next 4 months, ie Q1 2024. This new facility was to increase capacity and they have already booked jobs for 2024.
Given the new facility will be setup in Q1 2024, why hasn't the revenue expectation gone up significantly for fy2024? The forecast is c10% increase compared to 2023.
ShandyPants,
Re your post of 18th Dec 10.07
"c7m options is just over 1% of the company's shares so it's not overly significant."
c7m options for 1 director, CEO, is significant. Why weren't they awarded to the other directors, like the CFO?
By the same reasoning, I have said the IIs holdings here are insignificant. Where are all the IIs scrambling to buy in, where are all the IIs holdings above 3%?
"whilst the options are quite generous i think there are 2 things driving this -
potentially Mo was approached by another company and these options ensure his continued employment."
"it is well known that CF's end game is a sale. If Mo wasn't happy that his employment might cease in say 2 years, then this is a nice sweetener for him"
I'm glad you agree with me that they are generous (contrary to your 1st point!!).
Your reasons for the huge options is exactly why I see them as a bear point. My point was the company is being talked up so that MO can exercise his options and CF clearly want's to sell the company.
If the company was growing strongly and has a great future then raises a questions as to why would anyone want to sell so soon? So don't they see strong growth beyond next year, fy2024?
Investors normally sell their business/investments when it's near it's peak. Given the Nomad thinks a target price is 29p, they are likely to advice the company that any offer around that price is fair - so 26p-30p. Where's the growth?
Iwantthatone,
"the point is that if a Labour Gov intends to put extra funds into the NHS (eg paying consultants overtime) to do weekend working to cut backlogs then presumably that work will no longer be performed by TLY. "
I agree with Justdeezerts, you miss the point.
One important factor, you also miss.
Pensions liability.
Where will the money come from to pay the additional pension burden? Who will pay the NI bill and subsequent pension liabilities to pay the overtime for NHS employed staff? Taxpayers, who are already paying the highest tax burden???
By using private providers, the pension burden is removed from the NHS. TLY uses self-employed staff as well as full time. When there's a need for elective surgery, staff are hired on a contract for that job. Therefore, staff hired for specific jobs are responsible for their own tax and pensions.
Iwantthatone,
This was originally announced by the Labour Party in October.
It's just repeating what TLY and other providers already do.
TLY's Elective Surgery works by using hospital facilities when they are not in use, ie weekends to conduct operations.
8th October:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-67043603
TLY:
"Totally provides entire teams of highly specialised substantive consultants across a range of medical and surgical specialities, including anaesthetists, advanced nurse practitioners, senior lead nurses, theatre nurses, HCAs, decon technicians and clinical physiologists who utilise trusts facilities during weekends and bank holidays to target the reduction of waiting lists."
https://www.totallyplc.com/our-services/elective-care-outpatient-services/
Thinice,
My posts are all there to see.
Read my posts and the evidence yourselves:
I was warning of the red flags on the following shares, which were rising. They all crashed with the company newsflow later confirming the red flags/bear points as the reasons for the decline:
RTHM - crashed from 590p(new money) to 100p
TRMR - crashed from 870p to 200p
BYOT - crashed from 10p to 0.6p
NANO - crashed from 70p to 18p
Read the company newsflow.
Huge options granted to CEO but no other director. These options were backdated and are can be exercised in just over a year.
No evidence of significant II buying since July, despite claims by some.
Questionable business model
Huge shares on loan.
No dividend payment, despite the huge cash pile. There's intention to pay a nominal dividend but why nothing more.
Read the company newsflow
FACTS:
fy2022 £50m
efy2023 £55m
efy2024 £60m
So, where's the substantial revenue growth?
Fy2023:
H1 2023: fy2022 £50m to fy2023 guidance £55m - that's around 10-11%
"hVIVO increases its revenue guidance to GBP55 million (excluding other income) for 2023"
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/hvivo/news/rns/story/rgz9g3w
So even with the new facility up and running in Q1 2024, they expect fy2024 revenue to increase by ONLY £5m. Really?