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Moniman,
I've done my research.
There a red flags. All of these are in the public domain, readers can see them for themselves.
Questionable business model.
Huge options for 1 director
Huge options for 1 director were back dated by a year so they he can excercise them sooner. Very odd.
Huge shares on loan.
Nominal dividend despite claiming to have £30m in bank.
No evidence of significant buying by IIs.
Why hasn't Mo loaded up using his own money given the future is supposedly fantastic?
"There are no red flags"
Why won't you prove me wrong, load up and hold for at least 2 years?
Is it because you are aware of the red flags?
Moniman,
"The Red Flags you go on about don't exist"
That's your opinion.
Obviously you will prove me wrong that red flags don't exist by loading up at 20p and holding for 2 years or £70m revenues, won't you?.
The red flags are there for everyone to read and judge for themselves.
Hallsworthy,
"Revenue slowed because we were at capacity, hence the expansion"
Really??
The reported £50m revenue for fy2022 and is only around 10% higher for this full year.
Given the lead time to set up projects, they would, therefore, had known about the lack of revenue growth beyond £50m 2 years years ago.
The new facilities won't be up and running until next year, so going by your post, that's 3 years they would have been at known capacity. What happened to planning?
Why didn't they plan and setup the new facilities 2 years ago when they would have known that they needed it?
From the recent H1 report:
"hVIVO increases its revenue guidance to£55 million (excluding other income) for 2023"
"hence the mention of 90m revenue going forward from interviews by Mo."
From their H1 results, they say they have a contracted order book of £78m.
That is obviously multi-year and so where's the significant revenue growth going forward?
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/hvivo/news/rns/story/rgz9g3w/export
Which year are they expecting £90m revenues?
Littlevillage
"It seems at that price sellers seem to appear and the SP cannot get above that price."
That's what happens when there's around 10-11m shares on loan.
The company broker has a target price in mid 20s. They also suggest this tp is based on comparison to nearest UK peer, Ergomed, which was TAKEN OVER.
Moniman
"here we are back in the teens with over £30 million in cash, £50 million turnover and making a profit and the biggest order book in its history circa £80 million"
The revenues growth has slowed. Look at revenues for fy2022 and fy2023, hardly any growth. Revs for fy2022 were £50m and they expecting £55m for fy2023. Even allowing for excluding other income the growth has slowed considerably.
Their contracted order book only increased by around 10% when compared to the previous year.
"As at 30 June 2023, the Group's weighted contracted orderbook increased to£78 million (H1 2022: £70 million)"
" The Board has increased its revenue guidance to £55 million for 2023 "
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/hvivo/news/rns/story/rgz9g3w/export
Stifel... Another red flag to add to my list.
Brokers are paid for their services.
Note they have a 27p target price, which is similar to the company broker.
Brokers get paid for their coverage. There aren't many who do independent coverage.
Read my posts on Trmr just a year after Stifel was appointed. When I posted the below posts, the sp was around 800p. Stifel and other US brokers had a target which was significantly higher than the 800p, whilst I was posting about the red flags.
The sp crashed and is now around 150p in just 2 years.
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/stt1/?page=18
It's funny coincidence, as trmr also had questionable business model, the CEO also had huge options and they also had huge shares on loan.
I believe the Help to Buy Scheme is toxic and will come back to haunt the govn/HBs.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/property/why-help-to-buyers-homeowners-fall-off-property-ladder/
Greened,
"1) Questionable business model.
Seriously? In what way - looking forward to the reply on that one…
Read the HVO(was Orph) company newsflow.
2) Huge options given to CEO. -
why is that an issue
Because anyone with such huge options (and he was the only director to be awarded them) will talk up the company and just before those options can be exercised. As evidenced now, nominal dividend, new facilities etc just months before MO's huge options can be exercised.
3) Lack of dividend despite the huge cash in bank
If you want a large dividend buy Vodafone
You missing/twisting the point.
They paying a nominal dividend. Why only nominal when the cash position suggest they can afford to pay a proper divided?.
4) History of missing expectations, missed spin offs, eg DiM.
You’re referencing pre MK days…
I believe CF is still pulling the strings.
"The other points re Ergomed selling at 28% above SP are immaterial"
Again, I'm quoting the company's own broker/NOMAD. They have more information than any BB poster.
They are the one's who made the comparison and target price on HVO of mid 20s.
These are my concerns - bear points.
Feel free to discuss.
Questionable business model.
Huge options given to CEO.
Significant Shares on Loan.
Lack of dividend despite the huge cash in bank
History of missing expectations, missed spin offs, eg DiM.
Blackrhino,
"If this gets taken out it will not be in the 20s"
The company broker and NOMAD, Liberum, themselves have a target price in the mid 20s. With that target, they also compare HVO to their nearest UK peer Ergomed.
Therefore, if there was a takeover offer then the NOMAD is likely to advise the company that it's a fair offer.
The NOMAD have already stated a target of mid 20s whilst comparing it to Ergomed.
Ergomed was taken over with a 28% premium.
HVO's own company broker, Liberum, sees Ergomed as the closest UK Peer.
Yet with that comparison in mind, their price target for HVO is 26.6p. IF HVO receives a similar premium as Ergomed did then HVO's takeover would be around Liberum's target price, mid 20s.
"After today's upgrades, the shares trade on just 9.3x EV/ 2023 EBITDA and look materially undervalued, particularly against the recently announced 21x takeout EV/ 2023 EBITDA multiple for its closest UK peer, Ergomed. We remain buyers with a new target price of 26.60p."
Moniman,
"companies have over £30 million in the bank "
If they have so much spare money in the bank then why not pay a proper dividend? They are paying a nominal dividend, which will be decided when they announce their fy2023 results, so still around 6 months to go and more until it is paid.
Why not they prepared to pay a proper dividend this year for fy2022 or H1 2023?
Why didn't they pay for the new facility out of the huge cash they hold? This would prevent clients who largely paid for the new facility from having preferential treatment over potential new clients?
The dividend is being paid just months before MO's huge options are due to be exercised.
Best to do your own research than believe the misleading (and lies) of some.
Where is there only 1 customer?
FACTS
TLY has a diversified business model covering Urgent Care, Elective Care and Corporate Wellbeing. Their services are to NHS, HMP and Corporations.
They provide their services in ALL 4 UK Nations and Republic of Ireland.
As far as I'm aware, Republic of Ireland is a separate sovereign country and not ruled by the UK Govn.
;-)
"Totally addresses the challenges of increased demand on healthcare services by delivering high quality urgent care, elective care and outpatient services across the UK and Ireland."
"Through Energy Fitness Professionals, Totally also offers corporate customers a range of fitness and wellbeing services, either within their offices or through digital channels, promoting a physically and mentally fit workforce. "
https://www.totallyplc.com/our-services/
Greend,
"1. Agree that a more aggressive revenue growth would be preferable, but think that has been constrained by operational factors in the main. However, if they can see another 12% next FY, that would see them to c £62mn from organic growth."
Point is the timing is too much of coincidence with MOs huge 7m options.
The expectation of £50m for fy2023 was made 2 years ago. Given they knew they were constrained by the facility 2 years ago then why didn't they take action back then.
MO was appointed CEO in Feb 2022 and he knew about the constraints. Yet he was awarded his huge options this Feb (backdated by a year). The new facilities will be ready Q1 24. The intended nominal divi as well will be announced and paid as part of fy23 results.
Nominal divi and new facility both planned for fy2024, just months before MOs huge options can be exercised.
Whereas both could have been planned for this fy.
" Private Equity firm Permira deemed Ergomed sufficiently valuable to purchase at a PE of x45"
Ergomed was taken over with a 28% premium.
HVO's own company broker, Liberum, sees Ergomed as the closest UK Peer.
Yet with that comparison in mind, their price target for HVO is 26.6p. IF HVO receives a similar premium as Ergomed did then HVO's takeover would be around Liberum's target price, mid 20s.
"After today's upgrades, the shares trade on just 9.3x EV/ 2023 EBITDA and look materially undervalued, particularly against the recently announced 21x takeout EV/ 2023 EBITDA multiple for its closest UK peer, Ergomed. We remain buyers with a new target price of 26.60p."
Roley,
"with the new facilities kicking in for 2024 and beyond."
What is the revenue expectation for fy2024?
Regarding the new facility. It was largely paid for by clients, so those clients will have favourable treatment/preference over potential new clients. Those potential new clients will have to wait or they could walk away.
Green,
"like for like £56.5m…"
Whether it's £50m without r&d credits or £56.5m, the point is where's the significant growth?
Compare that to the previous years when revenue growth was growing strongly.
fy2021 £39m
fy2022 £50m
efy2023 £55m/£57m (without r&d, with r&d)
Revenue growth has slowed.
Roley
"increasing your revenue guidance is a very positive thing especially as margin is forecast to also increase."
fy2022 £50m
efy2023 £55m
That's an increase in revenue of only £5m, or 10%, compared to last year, fy2022.
They supposed to be a rapidly growing company, yet revenue growth has stalled.
"hVIVO increases its revenue guidance to £55 million (excluding other income) for 2023 "
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/hvivo/news/rns/story/rgz9g3w