Member Info for strudel

Sorry to be the "neigh-sayer" in the midst of your horsing around.

Today's satellite was cloudy - everywhere.

@Jim,

I was thinking $300 was a not unknown gold price of recent history. If we take today's price as $1,800 then it's possible to drop to 1/6th of that if Armageddon shows up.

Applying blunt arithmetic, the 30p SP today could turn into 5p if there is a need to hibernate and let Armageddon pass. That's possible judging by the fickleness of some PIs chasing every next hot stock and the ease of selling via a smartphone whilst wondering which Pret salad to buy. And the IIs routinely move in / out large holdings when sentiment changes....

So his leaves me tuning in my advance warning system to spot when Armageddon will arrive and from which direction. In 30yrs of investing I've never managed to spot it before in good time to react.....

Just looked at the link Paddy kindly provided to Morningstar and am wondering if many of the iShares ETF funds have to keep buying as and when the GGP SP goes up as they are governed by rules of proportionality. So their buying and selling is almost automated. (I'm sure the smart cookies AM90 and Hydrogen would be able to advise how to work this out from the info iShares disclose.)

Whereas folks like Invesco have a fund manager who can decide if, when and how much to invest or sell, based on what GGP are doing and looking forward at prospects and potential.

So if more fund managers decide to invest large amounts, and all the PIs are sitting on their hands, then the SP might go up, and this rise is then amplified by all the ETFs having to match the rise by buying more.

I think this effect had already been noted by the sheer volume of passive funds tracking the major American stock market indices, outweighing the managed funds, and having some predictable (and not always positive) side effects.

I'm sure our prospects will help protect our underlying SP in all weathers, even if some of the rise turns out to be froth that gets blown away periodically. Apart from perhaps an Armaggedon-style plunge in the value of gold to a fraction of today's price. That would stop NC in our tracks, as there would be no point in digging anymore.

Just spotted a new image:

https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?zoom=15&lat=-21.72658&lng=122.64761&themeId=DEFAULT-THEME

HAV looks like all nine rigs are clustered fairly centrally, and everything to the east of the compound.

Paterson East neighbours look as if they have packed up and gone, no activity there for quite a while now. I think this is the third radar image with nothing doing.

Eastern neighbours are at their second drill hole close to their camp. I was wondering, since they barely seem to move week after week, if they are drilling in different directions instead, all from the same starting spot. This of course presumes they are finding something of interest in the first place.

crisps. Sensations, Chilli, Thai, family sized pack.
Seemed right on the day I broke the R word to my boss (retirement) to celebrate appropriately.
Am not daring to mention the M word on this board.

Don't worry folks, R is a gentle decline, going to 4 days per week, letting Covid disruption clear Planet Earth and then moving from 4 to zero...might take a while.

The M-word is trickier, involves moving the mouse to the sell button and that continues to be oddly unclickable.

Finally, an image....they must've run out of WD40 to spray at that Sentinel satellite!

The square dot north east of the original camp seems to be doing things.... No idea what.

Had a nosey at what the neighbours were up to. To the east they are still on their second hole. No sign of them moving to the northern or southern boundary of HAV yet.

And up at Paterson East, still a line of 8 white dots where our neighbours have been busy. Last radar image showed zero activity up there, wonder if they have given up for the season or of they will be back again in a few days time with the new radar image?

I think that's the maintenance engineer trying to explain he's reassembled everything after giving it a good clean and is just trying to work out where that extra right angle bracket with the holes and those half dozen assorted screws that are now "spare" have come from.

I thought it was a way of saying the tenements involved are huge - particularly Paterson East - so a ludicrous amount of drilling is probably required to do it justice.

...just visualizing someone with a can of WD40 and an oily rag.

@Mercedesman, remember JALOG

Goliath could be Just a lump of granite.

GH getting NC to trot off and prove it with their time and effort may turn into a master stroke.

NC will always end up with circa 75%. Didn't Papa New Guinea's government demand 50% of a recent discovery and NC told them to sling their hook.

@chrome
Go to the Discover tab then click Back to Search. A list of at least a dozen satellites will appear. The first two are Sentinel 1 (radar/night) and Sentinel 2 (day). If you Visualize one image - move around it and zoom in on whatever is of interest you can then click back to Discover and pick the radar image so that when it is displayed it keeps your coordinates and zoom. Without this feature radar images are impossible to navigate!

Been cloudy for the last couple of images.
And today's hasn't shown up yet.....

The radar (night) image is Sentinel 1, the daylight image is Sentinel 2
Go to Sentinel Hub and just tick different boxes depending on what you are after.
I start in daylight, navigate/zoom to what I want to see then change over to the radar image.
Due a new radar on the 4th Dec, data gathered on the 3rd.

Used to be like clockwork at half six in the morning. Then it started appearing mid morning. Then it got unreliable..... Recently it got back into an early morning groove.... Until today.

A beautiful example of a well spun email. Ten out of ten for deviously presenting a rise in charges.

The vast majority of AJ Bell customers will pay more each and every year - multiply their new monthly charge by three and compare to what you used to pay per quarter. And then work out how much you "save" by not doing transfers.

....TL30, the dog would be safer if you relied on LSE for trades info, they stopped updating at 4.10pm yesterday, haven't shown any of the major shuffling and only put the 70M up this morning.

Tomorrow should include a daylight satellite update, with wind and dust more likely than rain according to the forecast - so let's hope we are cloud free.....

Although I'm not entirely sure what to be oggling. The RNS has kinda burst my bubble with nothing happening at Paterson East till next year, ditto Blackhills. Antipa's have already stopped drilling their line of eight(?) locations according to the last radar. HAV infill drilling in the East breccia is so same-y. Maybe Artemis will have started a third hole?

Otherwise I'll be left admiring close up photographs of cores mulling over which one to buy, mount in a wooden display case and nail onto the wall above the fireplace.

Or they could blindside us, reinstate the Scallywag camp and be drilling Kraken to hole-y dust.

Just musing, apologies if I have missed this already being discussed elsewhere last night or today, I can't keep up with the quantity of posts....

GH and CB would've been sitting with all the AEM results when negotiating the JV terms. I wonder if they saw stuff that points more towards "just a lump of granite" rather then gold in them thar hills in the style of HAV.

They would not necessarily have shared the AEM results with NC.

I'm still pleased, like many here, that someone with deep pockets is going to start drilling sooner rather than later at Blackhills and Paterson East. Other exploration companies spend years with their goods in the shop window and no takers.

In all the juicy details of that mega RNS this bit about the actions of the HAV joint management committee caught my eye, bearing in mind NC have 3 and GGP 2 appointees.

After the Feasibility Study is complete "If a Decision to Mine is not approved by a unanimous vote, then the party who voted in favour shall have an option to purchase the non-approving party's interest at fair market value"

So GGP can control if they want to cash in by deliberately voting no and forcing NC to bid for the last 25%.

..... Or the 2 GGP members could vote yes and we move to production and paying off NC's loan with the HAV gold royalties, keeping 20% of the income to keep shareholders happy until the loan is fully repaid, and then making shareholders really really happy with 100% of the income.

Can we all just understand what market value actually is. If geometry and geology are crunched and it is declared by a competent person that there is for example 1million ounces in a chunk of Oz rocks this is not valued as the same number as a bunch of refined gold bars sitting on a table totaling 1million ounces.

Market value is what Acme Gold Mining Co would pay for the ore knowing that they would have to dig it out of the ground, ship it to a processing plant, the majority of potential bidders will also have to build the processing plant; and refine and pour gold bars that they can then sell at a profit to the gold buyers of the world.

If the value of a bog-standard gold bar is 1000 units, but to create it involves fixed costs (ASIC) - examples such as digging costs 150, shipping costs 50, processing costs 150 and refining and pouring costs 50 then you've spent 400 leaving Acme 600 of potential profit. Unfortunately they have to sacrifice some of this profit in order to buy all the ore in the first place.

So how much are Acme going to bid for the original ore in the ground knowing all this?
601 per bar and they will be bankrupt
599 and they will be wondering why they bother being in business
500 they are making money
400 and they are making lots of money
300 are they being too greedy and in danger of being outbid by someone else?

The problem for everyone apart from Newcrest and to a lesser extent Rio is the need for processing. Newcrest will save on the bulk of processing costs because they have Telfer down the road and won't need to build a plant from scratch. Their profit for the bog standard gold bar will be closer to 750 before working out how much they want to spend on buying out the 25% of remaining ore from GGP. Newcrest's bid will be the market value as calculated by Acme plus one dollar more to make sure they have the highest bid and also maximise their own profit by not over paying. NC then know they can make 100% of the decisions about how to mine HAV without having to keep a minority holder happy and compliant. Specially if the minority holder could end up being a big boy like Rio who know how to get their way.

Part of me wants GGP to stick with their 25% and cream in annual profits for 20 years and pay a chunky dividend to their shareholders. But that is more to do with the fact that I reckon I will still be alive during the vast majority of the next 20 years with time to enjoy the income.