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This looks far too cheap, think most institutional investors must be concerned about regulatory issues / perceived risk in business. Eventually the buybacks will make a material difference if share price remains at EV/FCF around these levels.

One that requires the patience to sit and wait.

Ultimately, difference of opinion is what creates share price movement. I'd be delighted if they announced great Q3 numbers, but based on guidance I expect low production / ASIC profile will mean that net debt is largely flat Q on Q.

2024 likely a different story with Kouroussa at full capacity and hopefully successful mining underground at Yan. Also expect long term trend in gold price to be supportive but it's a difficult game to predict short term movement.

I expect Q3 earnings to be a bit of a blood bath with Kouroussa not yet up to nameplate production and Yanfolila at much lower production than previous Qs given the change in mining deposits (judging by the RNS they mined little material last Q with a good chunk of production coming from stockpiled ore). Add in that it's typically a challenging period anyway due to the rainy season.

Not selling, not buying at the moment, but think there could be an attractive opportunity to get in at a sub 10 towards the end of the year.

Got a link for this?

Appreciate the additional colour.

I think assuming that I can get comfortable with the numbers (being real), it really comes down to how, if and when the cash is distributed to shareholders. Some risk of a take private on unattractive terms.

Will dig further.

Hi All,

Stumbled across this almost by accident and couldn't believe my eyes when seeing that it's trading for ~0.75x 2022 FCF! What's the story here? Is there any risk of fraud?

From what I can tell from a quick 20 min look:

1. Management barely communicate with shareholders.

2. It's not clear how existing cash assets are invested (mostly in other public companies?).

3. No guidance on what % of FCF will be paid out to shareholders. The div yield, although increased, is very modest in the context of how much cash they are generating.

4. They own a random real estate asset in the UK (why?!) which is again poorly described.

Seems absolutely crazy...

@Morbox I think it's a reference to cost of debt being 7% while adj FCF yield is in the region of 12-14%.

So the calculation that they're using isn't factoring in any future growth in that FCF number (could argue that buybacks at < 7% yield could still be accretive if there's sufficient growth in the business).