Chris Heminway, Exec-Chair at Time To ACT, explains why now is the right time for the Group to IPO. Watch the video here.
Well it looks like the business is at worst breakeven, so I don't see why it should trade below net cash. I agree that the viability of the business model is currently a concern though, and I think that it's best to assume that the algo issues don't magically reverse course.
We need to see updated visitor numbers and ad revenue to make an assessment.
Could be a forced sale if they're facing redemptions?
I've been surprised how stable the gold price has been over the last few months. Feels like we've been hovering around $1950 for quite a while now.
Also interested to understand the thinking with the most recent acquisition. They've effectively bought 12m Facebook followers - what value do they expect that to bring to top line (given the comment around detrimental algo changes)?
Indeed, so we're looking at a full year revenue drop of ~20% yoy. Feels like that sort of performance could have been communicated to the market sooner...
In terms of the traffic issues, I'm struggling to square that explanation with the increasing visitor counts presented in the 2022 update. Lots of questions. Hopefully a bit more clarity from management next week...
Expect adj. EBITDA for the year could end up being something like £300k to £500k. Not game over but some fairly significant questions over the long term plan.
Well, that didn't land particularly well with the market...
Gap down 10%
Fancy reading our horoscopes while you're at it?
Even if the YOY numbers were disappointing, the shares would still look incredibly cheap. Eventually the buybacks will force the share price higher.
I think this is just uninvestable for many institutions due to perceived regulatory risk and the lack of hedging.
Thought the team did a pretty good job there.
Would be really useful (having given a bit more clarity about the different business sections) to provide more granular numbers for each division in the quarterly updates.
Great video, have an additional subscriber!
Hummingbird are just really poor when it comes to communicating with shareholders. Would be so easy to put out an RNS to confirm / disconfirm that it's an issue, but instead radio silence.
Remember something similar about a year ago at Yan when there was some vague comment about locals breaking into site, with zero clarity given on any potential theft / vandalism. It shouldn't be hard to keep the market updated on these things, the lack of clarity just adds to distrust.
Any idea if the presentation(s) from CMD today are going to be made available?
I actually don't mind the UK property business - I think it's value is obscured by the fact that it's owned by a SA coal producer. Imagine what value you would ascribe to a property business with £10m+ of property, annual rental income of ~£1m, and a further £10m+ cash/investments. Haven't looked into the potential London development but would imagine there's probably another few £m value in that.
The way I look at it you're effectively getting the (profitable) coal business for free, with lottery ticket earnings potential if the thermal coal price tracks higher for longer again (and the rail transport issues are resolved).
On the other hand... corporate governance issues are real, and the commentary about looking for further coal based M&A opportunities is a potential concern until potential deal economics become clear.
They're only reporting net losses because of the significant amount of amortisation (associated with prior M&A). Back that out and they're highly cash generative.
EBITDA to CF is ballpark 100%.
This looks far too cheap, think most institutional investors must be concerned about regulatory issues / perceived risk in business. Eventually the buybacks will make a material difference if share price remains at EV/FCF around these levels.
One that requires the patience to sit and wait.
Ultimately, difference of opinion is what creates share price movement. I'd be delighted if they announced great Q3 numbers, but based on guidance I expect low production / ASIC profile will mean that net debt is largely flat Q on Q.
2024 likely a different story with Kouroussa at full capacity and hopefully successful mining underground at Yan. Also expect long term trend in gold price to be supportive but it's a difficult game to predict short term movement.
I expect Q3 earnings to be a bit of a blood bath with Kouroussa not yet up to nameplate production and Yanfolila at much lower production than previous Qs given the change in mining deposits (judging by the RNS they mined little material last Q with a good chunk of production coming from stockpiled ore). Add in that it's typically a challenging period anyway due to the rainy season.
Not selling, not buying at the moment, but think there could be an attractive opportunity to get in at a sub 10 towards the end of the year.
Got a link for this?
Appreciate the additional colour.
I think assuming that I can get comfortable with the numbers (being real), it really comes down to how, if and when the cash is distributed to shareholders. Some risk of a take private on unattractive terms.
Will dig further.
Hi All,
Stumbled across this almost by accident and couldn't believe my eyes when seeing that it's trading for ~0.75x 2022 FCF! What's the story here? Is there any risk of fraud?
From what I can tell from a quick 20 min look:
1. Management barely communicate with shareholders.
2. It's not clear how existing cash assets are invested (mostly in other public companies?).
3. No guidance on what % of FCF will be paid out to shareholders. The div yield, although increased, is very modest in the context of how much cash they are generating.
4. They own a random real estate asset in the UK (why?!) which is again poorly described.
Seems absolutely crazy...