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All of this analysis completely misses the large amortisation charges associated with past acquisitions. Underlying profitability is much better (see EBITDA conversion / FCF).

Well someone obviously wants out of this...

This looks a great business but I find it so difficult to invest in these startups that issue a ridiculous number of shares to insiders.

It's already difficult enough to forecast growth without having to forecast share count dilution as well.

Why use earnings rather than FCF?

No idea but it's taken a good kicking.

Bit surprised that there has been no follow-up buyback scheme announced.

Wonder if they might be eyeing up more M&A. Was sort of alluded to in the recent presentation the CFO gave.

Disclaimer: Not a current holder.

It's absolutely ridiculous that there has been no new RNS in the past 2 weeks. This has the potential to bankrupt the company and there is absolutely zero clarity for investors on what is happening.

Hi all, would someone be able to provide a brief overview of the situation here?

What is the history with Mike Lynch?

Has the company gone through a period of significant change?

I find the Net change in ARR metric confusing - I assume this is a second derivative of revenue growth?

Considering changing to GAAP accounting. Financials to be reported in USD going forward. Commitment to a clear financial calendar with quarterly updates.

Hmmmm

Just noticed that in the last 2 days RNS filings that they've started to cancel shares (which were held in treasury). Not sure why they would cancel some each day rather than in one block. Seems a bit strange.

App downloads data is a nice find!

Bit frustrating that the language seems to have shifted from problems at ED now "showing signs of a potential resolution". Previous RNS implied that the issue was fully resolved...

Otherwise results are as expected. Should benefit from a recovery in ad markets with the US election this year, and looks like TVguide is already performing well.

Things look to have taken (yet another) grim turn since I last checked in here. The debt repayment schedule leaves very little margin for error, and they appear to be having significant problems at Kouroussa before even getting up to steady state production. Mining in Africa is not easy.

I'd be very sceptical about successful underground mining at Yanfolila given that they've struggled to reliably dig out of an open pit for the last 4 years.

"For the year ended 31 December 2023, there was one customer that represented more than 10% of the Group's revenue, amounting to USD 566.9 million (2022: USD 492.8 million) across two segments, Online Marketing: USD 558.9 million (2022: 483.2 million) and Online Presence: USD 8.0 million (2022: USD 9.6 million). The customer is an aggregator who does not procure the services for its own use but provides access to an estimated three to four million end customers who order and consume the services."

I always assumed that this was Google but doesn't quite tie in with the 3-4m customers line. Any ideas?

And what if the threshold is reached due to share buybacks increasing their % of voting rights rather than further market purchases? Still required to make an offer?

At 30% they're required to make an offer?

It's still not entirely clear from the outside how their business model works (for the marketing side). I think that probably puts off a lot of would be investors.

Hopefully we should get a trading update in the next few weeks. Interested to see how the acquisitions during the past 6 months are playing out.

Down ~10% for the week. Happy new year...

At least the buybacks are coming at an increasingly attractive price!

Haven't seen anything but imagine it'll probably be mid Feb