Member Info for stokey12

Woody2002 - I do not disagree with you. My point is that the business model is such that there should be scope to do both.

Apart from the discussions with Toyota this document http://www.meti.go.jp/english/press/2017/pdf/1226_003a.pdf which slome of yu may have seen already gives rise to the possibility of national government assistance. See in particular page 2 under regional revitalization.

BumbleB - I take your point but I note that some of the people who are involved in, or connected to, Powerhouse also have connecions with AFC so would probably be aware of the issue you raise and would want to avoid the same happening her. Also I note that the first customer for the G3 units is buying five so apart from the money from the sale of the actual units there will be the ongoing revenues. I am therefore still slightly more optimistic than you on the timescale to profits being made.

BumbleB - I was working on the assumption that any issues would come to light during testing at Thornton Science Park so gremlins will have been ironed out. If I recall the first unit is due in Q3 2019.

It is worth reflecting on what has been achieved so far. Most of the building blocks have been put in place for 2019 to be the year when Powerhouse transforms into a revenue producing company. We have the certification by DNV GL that the DMG is viable. We have the start of the talks with Toyota. Also we have the agreement with Wrightbus.

So what do we have to look forward to in 2019. Hopefully, we will have the first international deal through the agreement with Wrightbus. There is the pipeline of prospects hopefully some or all will be confimed as firm orders. Finally there is the conclusions of the talks with Toyota and hopefully the first domestic order which will be for five units.

If 2019 goes well then I would anticipate dividends in 2021.

Newboy58 - A Merry Christmas and a Very Prosperous 2019 to you ad may Powerhouse dliver in part on its promise.

I have just realised that I forgot the cost of the DMG unit. I am not sure how much of the cost of each unit is profit and how much is cost of materials. However, on the basis that one third of the cost of a DMG unit is profit then on the first units ordered the profit would be around £8m. That is against a MCAP of £9.5m.

AudibleEnergy - Heres to a very good year for Powerhouse.

I should add that my calculations are based on income from licensing the DMG units. My caculator cannot work out revenues if it was on a SPV basis.

I am not sure if Powerhouse has published any projections for revenue so here is a stab. Please check my maths and correct. Loadsadough please do NOT just refer me to the website.

Align Research gave a figure of 20 units a year as the likely number of units sold at an annual revenue of £350,000 per unit that would give a figure of £7,000,000 a year of new revenue. Align also assumed that no new sites will be built after year five giving a total of 100 units for a revenue of £35,000,000.

In the same research Align quote Powerhouse as saying that they believe that they can sell 700 units in the UK. On this basis that would give an annual revenue once all 700 units are sold of £245,000,000.

We do not have any figures for units that may be sold in Japan assuming that the Toyota deal is agreed but if we assume that again 700 units are sold. Fees that may be generated in Japan are higher than in the UK so if we assume that annual revenues are in the region of £600,000 per unit that would give an annual revenue of £420,000,000.

This would give a total conservative figure for projected revenue of £665,000,000 on the basis that 700 units are sold in both the UK and Japan. This is subject to a number of caveats the mian one is that the actual revenue per unit may be more or less than the figures I have quoted.

There are three takeaways from the significant shareholders list
1. It is accurate as at August of this year and needs to be updated
2. Hargreaves Lansdowne across the four accounts as at August of this year holds 23.21 in Nominee Shares
3. There are slightly over 27 million deferred shares - does anyone know who owns these?

Telephoneman - I would make only one point HMG have indciated that Feed in Tariiffs in the UK will be abolished from April next year. It is not clear what will replace them, if anything, this is out for consultation at the moment.

Woody2002 - Agree it might creep lower on no news. I am also taking a long view 5 - 10 years in my case.

Was PHE mentioned or referred to in the piece. I wonder if it gets mentioned in the Lords Debate tomorrow?

Amogst the debates in the House of Lords on Wednesday is this one secondly, on the threat of plastic to the environment and the case for improved recycling, led by Baroness Neville-Rolfe. I wonder if Powerhouse gets a mention?

if the Toyota deal succeeds using an SPV and following form this POwerhouse was able over the next ten years capture 5 - 10% of the Japanese Hydrogen Market what is the likely revenues for Japan only?

This sounds interesting Powerhouse could conceivably supply the Hydrogen to be used in the system.

Telephoneman - Sorry for being slow in getting back to you but had connection problems. In relation to Japan I recall that W2T already have exclusive rights to promote G3 units in Japan so I do not see how Toyota can be given a license to sell in Japan. What I suspect may be done is a Special Purpose Vehicle where Toyota, W2T and Powerhouse enter into an agreement to market, build and deploy the DMG across Japan. This would be similar to the deal in Romania and Bulgaria.

It would seem from a tweet by Powerhouse that the Toyota deal might be a first step by Powerhouse into the Japanese market. Following the decision of China to stop the importing of waste there is a build up of waste in Japan that needs to be disposed of. Therefore, I think that a number of deals will be made with Local and National government in Japan so that Powerhouse can dispose of the backlog of waste as well as future waste. That being the case I suspect that Powerhouse may be able to sell a very significant number of G3 units in Japan.

Also other Asian countries will have similar China in particular so I can easily see upwards of 1000 G3 units being sold in Japan and China. With smaller amounts being sold elsewhere in Asia. Other possible overseas markets are Europe both Eastern and Western. I am not sure about America as the Align Research indicated that there might be an issue there but elsewhere in North and South America would seem possible.

slicksandwets - Thanks for this very interesting.