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I think value will be discussed in the context of relative to peers.

The more important thing for them to “add some colour to” (what a knobish “analyst” phrase, by the way) is what options they’re considering/are most likely to demerge. Hopefully they’ll explore a seperate listing as well as private. I’d rather that, but Sky are inferring private.

Good news, although I’ll wait and see the details tomorrow before getting too excited.

I sure wouldn’t want to be short tonight though. I don’t think they’ll get much sleep. Nevermind.

My expectations are decent Q2 with revenue growth overall, per the last update:

The Group has made further progress in H1 2024 in line with previous revenue guidance, and Q2 will represent the third consecutive quarter of year-on-year (YoY) revenue growth. The Group's performance is underpinned by positive trading within the Beauty, external Ingenuity and offline Nutrition businesses, which have helped offset continuing FX headwinds within Asia. Guidance for FY 2024 remains unchanged[1].

That reads to me like Beauty has done well, Ingenuity momentum is continuing, Nutrition performing poorly but offline hopefully eroding the damage. Remember, Beauty is over half of revenue so it’s most important that is doing well and we know trading has been “positive”.

Then we have to hope that they update on Q3 and that Beauty/Ingenuity performance has continued and Nutrition offline has real momentum.

Then it’s listing strategy and hopefully some updates on partnerships/client wins that are sometimes saved for these things.

Re: rebrand, I agree, I don’t want to hear any more excuses about that.

I don’t understand how it can have any negative impact on sales. Surely they sell old stock until it’s gone and then manufacture new stock to replace it? It shouldn’t cause any stock availability issues.

If it is an issue, it requires much better explanation as to why it’d impede sales/profitability.

CitySpy does not know anything.

If there’s some big news tomorrow it’ll be a coincidence. Last week he was promising “by the end of the week”. He’s just a blagger and one with a track record so appalling I’m surprised he dares to post.

I hope it is goodbye from him but something tells me it won’t be.

What we don’t need is any sense of expectation that tomorrow will bring massive news. We just need Q2 numbers (which we know will be decent), update on Q3 and confirmation on ftse listing and it’ll be a great day.

CI

I don’t believe for a minute ALL the work is done. I think the legal restructuring probably is - all the relevant intercompany contracts, etc. Organisationally there’s probably a lot done but don’t think they all have their own exec teams, boards, etc. Not enough to stand listed scrutiny anyway..They claim reporting is all done too but I doubt that.

I would say they’ve gone as far as they can without pushing the button or investing a lot to go the other 20% - investment that is not necessary until you’re actually doing it.

My general point is that splitting all three now and particularly then changing the exchange is a monumental task and highly risky strategy that would take a while load of management bandwidth (does sound like Matt has been busy though tbf) and focus from running the business/delivering both.

In my view that’s unnecessary. List the whole on the main ftse, take the advantages of that. Then break off divisions one by one, either staying on the LSE (which still leaves opportunity to move again in future) or just biting the bullet and moving from the off if conditions are right.

Added to this, I expect any relisting to come with a “strategic partnership” that was the heavily hinted at most times this topic has been discussed. Again, to get such deals aligned with full separation is just unrealistic imo.

Yesimabeliever, I agree.

I’d say that’s the main risk for PI’s actually- a lowball bid to take us out and go private.

I’m assuming I’d get the option to be part of the private group and I’d probably leave my cash in if that’s the case.

I’m patient. I’d rather see gradual steps that see us return to full fair value, which I’d say is there or thereabouts the IPO price than anything that risks the businesses.

There’ll be bigger boys than me who may want to see the value restored far quicker than that timeframe though, I suppose.

Apologies if this is old news, but just seen a post on LI that Vimto clear whey is in Costco.

Have to say I am loving this offline push. Such a huge growth opportunity and I’m glad they’re doing it themselves and not partnering with anyone at this stage.

CI,

I would say a resounding no.

I would say the right time is when all three are sustainable individually and in growth, which makes it a no for Ingenuity. One option would be to spin out MP and leave ingenuity and beauty together for a period. This would have the advantage of allowing ingenuity to use beauty’s cash until it’s sustainable and beauty is best placed to support it given its growth trajectory. I imagine MP has the most suitors for strategic partnerships as part of any spin out too.

Overall though, I think the best course of action would be to announce a main listing now with an intention to explore individual listings. I’d start them on the LSE (for ease) and that still leaves optionality to duel list or to move the listing in future. Thats a 4-5 year plan.

Separating all divisions will be a HUGE undertaking whatever they say about the work being done already. The disruption will be massive and potentially damaging. There are easier ways to generate more sustainable SP growth by taking gradual steps towards that goal and ultimately separating when interest rates a very low, growth is high again and the chosen market is buoyant.

I am absolutely convinced it will be a RR or I wouldn’t be here. Or I’d be trading it as OSG said.

You’ll hear the doubters/shorters bang on about Moulding, profitability, debt, whatever.

The reality is that the company is in miles better shape than it was at £5 or £8 on every metric.

What we need to return is a stable an improved business environment post-covid/war/inflation and market confidence will then return in equities.

Wonder whether we’ll get any press this weekend?

Obviously not in regards to results but if we’re getting a strategy update, it wouldn’t surprise me to see plans hit the papers first.

Yeah, nice one Crafty.

I always feel better after listening to the conference calls, but good to listen to a couple of snippets ahead of the next one.

Putting numbers aside, I think this update has to include straight answers on main listing or what alternatives they’re exploring; they have to **** or get off the potty now.

My hope is they do. Well then attract the tracker funds and open ourselves up to new investors. They can separate and list elsewhere later down the line.

hahaha nice one *****cat.

starting to think you work for qube. every time they increase their short the price goes up like clockwork. mw know. good luck closing.

When the shorts start lying you know they’re in trouble

Just bought another 7866 shares to “take advantage” of this dip

Bit risky ahead of results but my view is I’m a long term holder and fully believe this share is massively undervalued so I’ll hold them come what may anyway

On the Moulding chat, I’ve always said I don’t like his rants at the City but I have no issues with his more recent LinkedIn post. He’s clearly working very hard and that’s what I want from my CEO. When you look at ASOS and BOO I’m not convinced he’s a drag on the SP at all.

In nutrition, impressed generally with the ongoing shift of business model in to retail for nutrition, love the Muller tie up (two of my favourite brands combining). Hopefully Beauty has done well per other results and Ingenuity surprises to the upside.

There’ll be some things that folk find to complain about on here as always but any meaningful update on listing strategy will trump all of that.

GLA

Just catching up on the weeks posts.

I have no idea why anyone posts CitySpys tweets on here.

I’m not sure what’s more embarrassing - him still tweeting after getting so much wrong, people following him like he’s ITK, or people linking his 💩 on here?

It’s so embarrassing anyone even follows him, never mind feels i

Rare visitor to these parts given the amount of nonsense on here these days but thought I’d contribute since I know a bit about London property.

1. This is 20,000 sqft so relatively small but way more than the needs of City AM who I remember being c30 strong at purchase. The desks being fitted are very small and depending on how much space they’ve dedicated to meeting areas and break spaces you could fit 200-250 desks. Thats a lot of consolidation = good.

2. Savings in property spend are mainly around the things people forget like multiple insurance policies, service charges, cleaning bills, utilities, alarms, CCTV, etc etc. I’d estimate there’s an easy £1m pa savings in these if 3-4 offices are coming together when they start filtering through. Possibly a lot more.

3. Depending on how long they have signed the lease for, there will be potentially several years rent free. I would estimate that at least £1.5m pa in the city, maybe more. Thats a cash saving.

So all in all, good news!

OB, I agree. I’ve traded different stocks in the past and I’m fine with it and used to just post my positions, target entry points, exits. Who cares? Invariably I found I made tiny sums comparison to picking good stocks, which THG is, and holding long though.

This board has been completely ruined by posters writing so much 💩. I have no idea why they waste their time because a) what they write makes no difference whatsoever to the share price, so they’re wasting their time which you can only pity really, b) their motives are so transparent you cannot possibly take a single thing they write seriously - they add no value whatsoever.

For me THG is a hold for 5 years minimum and I’ll multi bag for sure. I didn’t even see either RNS’s until midday yesterday and I think most longs are the same so this board is for small players dabbling at trading which I cba with tbh.

The best news of the week is that CitySpy’s credibility has been completely shot and hopefully that account never sees the light of day again. Or its posts ever discussed on here.

On the results, a mixed bag obviously. Beauty was stonking after some ludicrous posts on here saying it needed selling last year when it was a bit softer - no finer reason needed to ignore all the bllx on here. Beauty is a great asset and personally I like the diversification that having different businesses brings. It’ll be great if we can turn all of them to growth but in harder times having a diverse business mitigates risk. Best news for nutrition was (in order):

- Matt’s softening to in store presence and the stats provided in the RNS. I’ve wanted that for a while and think the potential for growth there at home and abroad is huge.

- Indian manufacturing operation up and running in Q1;

- Japanese manufacturing operation in Q2;

- More global licensing deals incoming alongside the coffee, pancakes and marvel deals.

Hopefully all of these will help recover the Q1 numbers across the year. I think over 3-5 yrs Nutrition could reach $1bn sales.

Ingenuity is a long play until we win multiple new clients. Whitestuff was nice. Hopefully more of that over the year.

Over and out for now.

“Bringing someone in 1st June”

So Vivek ousted then. Not surprised if I’m honest. Just got to hope this change pays off.