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In response to OSG’s post, does anyone know the margin in beauty manufacturing?
£10m is the alleged reduction in profit so at say 10% margin, might we assume we lost £100m revenue? In which case Beauty would have grown in H1 in ‘normal’ conditions. Or I’d margin actually much higher in manufacturing? Matt describes it as highly profitable.
I was going to post the same LD1973.
It’s outrageous the fall we’ve had for hitting guidance (ahead in some areas) vs the reaction to Boo for a massive miss.
Their huge sales decline has underlined that our results were very creditable in a market where consumer spending has been so badly hit, particularly given beauty de-stocking .
Tell your friends to buy things too.
And buy all your Christmas presents from MP or LF regardless of whether that’s what your friends and family want :)
A lot more than 3x I think Magnum. I think Nutrition alone is worth 3x.
Might get the missus one of these this year.
@Manc39
I agree with your advice and would never disclose my holding, but equally a different way might be to process your sales in a few transactions without disclosing the size of the last one.
Personally - and I think I can say this without falling out with you because you’re a good poster and we’ll continue to have good respectful discussion either way - it wouldn’t surprise me if you’d already sold. That’s not to say you have, just it wouldn't shock me if you had. Mainly since I’d never announce a sale in advance and would just do it quietly till I was out and then explain my reasoning. Although I don’t think anything anyone says on here impacts the SP one jot, it’s just counterintuitive.
There’s obviously a way for you to prove it to those a bit dubious, if you choose, but a bigger reflection will probably how much we see of you after tomorrow because I’ve personally never continued to follow a share after selling with such conviction on the riskiness of holding. It’s like stalking an ex - nothing good comes from it. 😂
But either way we all have different strategies. None of us are wedded to THG. We’ll all sell eventually so it’s only ever a matter of timing. We’re all here to make money, we just don’t all agree on the best way to do it. So I don’t get her up about what others decide to do - just focus on my strategy and whether my reasons for investing have changed and they haven’t.
In other shares I’ve swung traded over the years, I’d just go on the bb’s and say “out for now” when I’d sold, usually with my rationale and target buy back price. Never personal and I declared all my trades, good and bad. Sometimes I got it right, others wrong, but that’s par for the course isn’t it?
I don’t know why more users don’t do that on here to be honest as I sense it’d avoid the need for flip flopping opinions and multiple accounts. Or so it seems.
*This is why I was a bit puzzled at Matt's words on supermarkets on the H1 call.*
After the massive own goal of providing no strategy update (or plan to restore value) whatsoever, that was my most disappointing part of the results/call.
It also seems completely at odds with the news flow re: supermarket expansion. Why he’s happy putting baked goods in them but not the protein is beyond me. Almost as though he doesn’t want to cannibalise sales and impact ingenuity sales because I can’t see any other reason for it.
I went in to ASDA yesterday - UP, grenade, SiS and another brand I’ve forgotten all in there. MP would’ve looked brilliant alongside.
I took some heart that they’re approaching things differently in the US though.
I’d not heard of them tbh Manc.
Just had a look and smart packaging. I’d like to see MM roll out MP in to supermarkets asap for that very reason (competition). They’re well placed to do it so frustrating we’re only seeing part ranges.
Sign of age, Manc.
Although I guess that’s the purpose of having these facilities. Anyone know who they are? I imagine they’ll have been posting all about their time at THG HQ/country club.
Surprised there’s only 40 across the whole of the EU tbf.
Licker,
If you think investing in a stock where the ceo - who is the founder, largest shareholder with ~25% of the shares, most likely chairman when most of us started investing, and holder of a gs - is also a “passenger”… then I’m not going to argue with you. But I disagree.
I think everyone investing here knew this was not a normal ceo/company relationship (where they’d been hired and maybe had a few %). Or at least they should have done & been aware of the risks.
I’ve said before & will say again… I think we could all have expected more respect and transparency from Moulding than we’ve received, but that doesn’t change the fact that when we invested we should’ve considered the risks associated with having such an influential figure at the helm because the facts were known & public (I saw it as an opportunity - love some skin in the game, me - but equally knew the risks).
No point bleating about it now, even if I acknowledge very legitimate questions are now being asked if MM. And if he doesn’t answer them I think he might find next years AGM results very different.
@investing101 🤣😂🤣
@HH,
Could not agree more and some of what you say was inferred in my post.
If Jamie really bought a lot of his 1.1m shares at £1+ I feel sorry for him. Well I don’t actually because it’s all relative. If you can risk that you have to be a man & accept you can lose it.
Where I sympathise with Jamie is that I think MM has been entirely disrespectful in providing zero strategy update. What I don’t know if that’s because he’s clueless and doesn’t know what he’s doing, completely winging it, or there’s a genuine plan he can’t tell us yet. I’m hoping it’s the latter, but as Manc says, that’s a risk we’re all taking.
What I won’t have is that everyone was unaware they were investing in a volatile growth stock when they invested. They knew they were investing in a share with an accomplished entrepreneur but inexperienced listed ceo - and with that comes risk. And if they didn’t realise that, that’s their own fecking fault. Man up, accept it, sell up and move on. Not bleat on here like women… blaming others for their own mistakes.
FWIW, half of my holding was bought at 104p and the remaining between 40p - 68p. I’m massively down overall but I accept my own mistakes and look inwardly before blaming others.
And absolutely agree I’d have been nowhere near this share, as much as I love the brands and potential here, had it remained at £6. I only bought because of the 85-90% value destruction. If others whinging on here we’re honest with themselves, they’d admit the same.
That’s why Matt doesn’t care about us opportunists and I don’t blame him. I just hope my patience will pay off eventually.
@steveinhull - I’ll have a look back at my post because tbh I can’t really remember it and reply.
*years not weeks
… wish you massive success in your future investments and hope you make back any losses like I did.
Good luck and all the best,
SBB
@Manc39,
Sorry to see you go, and will miss your contributions on here, but hugely admire your decision and fwiw feel it’s the right one for you judging by your posts recently.
If you don’t mind me saying, and I don’t mean this in a disparaging way at all, but I’ve sensed THG has been quite damaging to your mental health recently. No share is worth that torment and whether you’re up, down or break even, you’re best well and truly out of a share when that doubt and frustration starts to kick in.
Steveinhull described me as a desperate investor massively underwater (or something similar) last weekend. I’ve been meaning to reply but too busy to craft a proper response until now… and since it relates to your circumstances and how I can relate to how you’re feeling now.
Back in the financial crisis I invested a ****load in banks when I thought they’d hit their lows. Before the tumbled 60% in a day. I went in TW at 12p before watching them fall to 4p. Many others around the same time. Only I hadn’t told my wife how much of my own, but technically “ours”, I’d gambled and “blown”. They were dark, dark days where I thought there was no chance I’d recover my losses.
I very much doubt you’re in as ****e a situation as I was then. But I’m saying this because I respect people owning their decisions, however gut-wrenchingly poor they were, admitting they made a bad one, taking it like a man(c), and moving on. FWIW, I made mine back elsewhere with a 40% profit over a few weeks and ran, so it proves it can be done.
I paid off my mortgage and saved like hell. I’m now a “big” PI here by the definition posted last week but not by Jamie’s standards. My savings hugely outweigh my holding & if MM ran THG in to the ground it’d make no difference to my life whatsoever. Besides being ****ed off he’d managed it so badly, of course. For that reason my risk/reward scenario sounds different to yours. I can afford to lose it all but know I’ll gain big IF it comes off. And my wife knows this time 😮💨😅🤣😴
But for those who are so unhappy with MM like yourself, and I get why they would be - I don’t like his rants when the SP is already so depressed and I think his lack of strategy update is borderline disdain for shareholders (I also think his actual numbers delivery is not as bad as people claim) - I think you’re best owning your decisions and getting out like you plan to.
We all take risk when we invest, and in THG we knew we were investing in a growth stock with a talented entrepreneur but an inexperienced listed ceo at the helm. That hasn’t worked out as everyone would like so own it & sell. There’s plenty of stocks out there to make your money back as proved in 2009/10.
For me I remain frustrated but absolutely confident in the business, brands and future of the company so will be holding tight and adding at these levels where I feel able.
But wish you massive success
I can save you the trip HH - there’s no cure for colour blindness 😉🤣
That’s usually a good sign.
Last time that happened they went up to a quid. Let’s hope it’s second time lucky.
I imagine it’s just the absolute numpties that thought it would go to 40p closing their shorts or realising it’s not going any lower and buying back before they miss out on the next rise.
Solid day. Buyer out there. Consolidating for a push up to a £ again in my opinion.
Don’t take a blind bit of notice of broker targets, particularly given how brokers have flip flopped on Thg, but nice to read some fair analysis for a change.
Someone’s accumulating again here.