Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Cong - way I see it working is:
Now New Jersey site is open theyāll list Ingenuity in US. They have a test site to show everyone. Maybe 80% THG, 20% shares listed on market. Couple of institutions backing them perhaps, maybe a tech investor/partner. Say they raise $200m, itās valued at $1bn and that would be fairly quickly (albeit maybe not immediately) reflected in our SP.
The huge benefit of this to THG is the $200m could be used to fund ongoing capex near term, freeing up cash to invest in Beauty/Nutrition advertising and growth. Which in turn drives higher revenues to Ingenuity alongside external client wins. That may drive up the Ingenuity SP and allow for further investment to be released for ongoing capex. Basically a win:win because without the capex in ingenuity THG is a very cash generative business.
Sorry to hear about Lord Alan if heās got health problems. To be honest, irrespective of Governance, given we never hear from him Iād rather we just bin him off and save half a million.
In all honestly, the results today - in line with guidance- did not warrant the fall. Obviously Iād have preferred a rise but I wasnāt thinking of selling any time soon so no real difference to me. I just see it as an opportunity to add at levels I never thought Iād get the opportunity to again.
Is it, what for? Q3 results?
Feel much better and very much like ājust cracking onā as Matt said at the end.
Firstly, I think Iāll trust Matt and team to run this business WAY more than our friends who emerged today.
The main disappointments for me were:
- the lack of value in the Iceland deal. I knew it wouldānt be a huge amount and obviously we donāt recognise sales but expected more in the Ā£3-5m range of Ebitda contribution. I was hoping they may expand that range to other supermarkets/globally.
- seems to be a general reluctance to go in to widespread supermarket distribution, which is a negative to me because he said they could clearly expand revenues massively by doing that. Why not then?
Positives:
- LāOrĆ©al and Asda deals, pipeline sounds strong & I sensed by one of the announcements that thereās others done but not announced.
- Nutrition offers at many times market cap.
- āNot short of people coming forward with ideasā, very much suggests opportunists are circling. Im fine with that, one day one of the nibblers will want to feast.
- Strategic optionality clearly being explored.
- No mention at all of Premium Listing. Odd he didnāt get a question on that š¤
- Comment at the end was odd, either something is imminent or he feels the next update will come around quickly.
Manc39, maybe from some PIās. Not from anyone else invested at massively higher levels. Iād consider Ā£1.50 an absolute insult. Iāve not sat through this for 18 months for Ā£1.50. And Iām pretty sure the IIās who have WAY higher averages than me wonāt either.
Letās be clear. Big boys like Apollo want full control. I said it from the moment the bid came in. Matt wonāt give it them and the IIās wonāt either at bargain basement prices.
That is where the whole PE buy out comes unstuck, because none on the big boys want 35%. The only deal that gets done here is an MBO with a smaller PE player that is willing to let the big boys roll. Maybe with the promise of very quick listing of a division elsewhere to recoup some investment.
Hosai,
The absolute glaring things still pointing to an MBO in my opinion are:
- Zero information on Strategy. Heās basically gone quiet on everything - partnerships, premium listings, divisional break up, the works. I find this quite disrespectful to be honest, unless he has other plans.
- Sale of property assets.
- Continued rhetoric about LSE and its disadvantages.
I also think giving up GS is a potential pointer. I think heād need some clear air between that expiring and the offer. But clearly heās had that now so itās either taking longer than he planned or not a factor.
As much as I want to trust MM the seeming complete lack of information forthcoming on strategy makes me think it may be in his interests for the SP to remain depressed. But I KNOW Iāll end up selling for a lot more than 68p so will sit sight.
Rabnesbit obviously hasnāt read the RNS that itās FCF neutral this year and positive next š¤£š
Gsolomonuk - absolutely right. If this is what Thg gets for delivering guidance and confirming it for the full year (slightly ahead in some areas) god knows what itād get if itād missed.
All the second accounts are out today so Iām switching off and just looking for another bargain entry point.
Good stuff. Like you say, hopefully a BOD.
That makes most sense. The revenues being generated from Nutrition and Beauty then become true revenues for that listed entity, and hopefully funds raised are used to fund the capex ongoing.
Iād be a big fan of that. For anyone saying ingenuity investment isnāt worth it, look at the Ocado valuation. What they need to do is deliver more whales, abd itās a multi Ā£Bn valued business in its own right.
Have to say, Iām surprised delivering guidance has been greeted with such shock and dismay by some of the better posters on here.
Iād have thought they were better versed in the guidance and their expectations set accordingly to be honest.
Just off calls. No recording available yet. In terms of positives Iām taking:
- MM said Nutrition had a recent bid? Any indication of how recently or value?
- Hinted that separation/alternative listing could start to make sense soon?
- Hinted that there may be some good news in the coming weeks? Donāt understand that. Whatās happening in a few weeks?
Anything else?
Good message from Matt.
Would still like to know where Ā£163m is being spent if theyāve completed global infrastructure investment though. Thatās THE key question for me.
Take that out and itās a phenomenal Ā£513m improvement in cash performance.
Oh dear, all the special ones are out today šš¤£
AS1, the Ingenuity capex much higher than expected hasnāt had much talk. Take that away & you have a very profitable business. Hope exactly how that is being spent is quizzed at conference call.
Looks to me like heās front loading some costs while weāre listed? That and no strategy update makes me think thereās something going onā¦
TrainTracks - you see no significant improvement in a Ā£350m improvement in cash performance?
HH, I have to say, I did wonder if there might be a second RNS today saying those exact words. Happy it didnāt land, thereās more value to be extracted here, but wouldnāt at all shock me to see it in the coming days/weeks/months.
MM very quiet on strategy, Kelso quiet. Somethingās brewing.
Off to do some work for the day. Have calls at 9. Anyone who can post highlights of the call much appreciated.
@nuri šššš
Probably a poster with multiple accounts, but either way have massive faith that the majority on here have enough brain cells to know that being FCF neutral in 2023, positive in 2024, with Ā£563m available cash/facilities means they are not going bankrupt any time soon. Weāre more likely to get Jedās divi (šš).
Yes, itās in there somewhere ttrader. FCF in 2024.