Ryan Mee, CEO of Fulcrum Metals, reviews FY23 and progress on the Gold Tailings Hub in Canada. Watch the video here.
That’s the way it looks to me sp28. Either way I am not selling a single share come what may.
Pmh198,
Since many like to compare Thg to BOO & ASOS I’ve just done some quick calcs and by my reckoning we’re down less them then - about 13% down off week highs vs 15%. Don’t know when their results are due but we compare favourably, particularly given they’re still say near all time lows and we’ve been on a good run.
This has nothing to do with results next week - it’s market driven.
All good by me. We can see the results/update, then make a call if we want to buy more at lower levels than we’d have otherwise been able to.
Have to say, I was expecting a rise in to results but this week has been horrible on the markets as a whole and so we’re being pulled down with it. No dramas.
On the plus side, I’ve been considering adding for a few weeks now but I’m so overweight here that I’m not doing it before the results. So this little dip might mean I can get in cheaper than I otherwise would’ve done beforehand on results day. Gotta take the positives!
Boom16,
I agree, he needs to hit numbers this time, but I think some of the rhetoric around MM’s “misses” are OTT on here.
Yes, there’s been a few bad sets BUT the context in which they’re delivered is a) the highest inflationary environment in decades, b) the worst cost of living crisis in living memory, c) significant geopolitical unrest - not that we were particularly exposed to Russia but there are knock on consequences for supply chain, business confidence, consumer confidence, etc.
The problem for a primarily D2C business with all that going on is predicting numbers a year in to the future with so many external factors impacting your environment is extremely difficult.
Any investor that overlooks those circumstances when analysing our results is a bit shortsighted. And anyone who expected brilliant numbers every time a bit deluded. Still, despite all that we delivered, 4% growth and some massive cost out initiatives saving £100m annually and closing OD. Again, investors should recognise these achievements more and not focus on the numbers entirely.
I personally don’t expect H1 numbers to be great. We’ve been sort of sighted on those. It’s how Q3 has looked, forward guidance and some sort of tangible update on strategy that will make or break this set. No strategy update and I can only imagine it’s “MBO but not tellin’ ya when or how much”… so then it’s a waiting game.
That’s my reading OB but still, positive signs for Nutrition.
Great update on Ingenuity. Unbelievable power to help rapidly expand brands in to global markets.
Would love to see more of these partnership launches/expansions RNS’d. Would create such a sense of momentum around what they’re building.
Manifesto - I’ve been buying MP products online for about 10 years and maybe longer. Way longer than I’ve been invested here which has been the last 18 months.
In all that 10 years the marketing strategy has been exactly the same - and it’s been successful in growing revenues from £20m to ~£700m revenue. That’s a pretty effective strategy and about the absolute last thing that needs reviewing or changing in my opinion.
Think I’ll leave these things to the marketing experts who have massively grown the business deploying this model and have millions of data points to analyse and inform their decisions.
Goodness me manifesto… MP have done this forever. It’s called marketing. Bit weird something they have always done would concern you now.
Spot on GTC. I can’t see much different to what you set out unless the previous update held some little nuggets back in the interests of caution/surprise.
The reaction here will all be about:
- the extent to which beauty declines eased. -10.7% was the number in Q1. If that improved in Q2 it’d suggest they’ve pulled out of low margin territories but seen growth in more established markets (good).
- the forward guidance and the extent to which the tailwinds we now have are expected to benefit in H2, like whey price reductions. Nobody really knows how much forward buying they’ve done and by when.
- Ingenuity update and what is going on there, are we on track for £1.2bn GMV?
- what sort of coherent update we get on strategy and value creation - premium listing? Partnerships? Timescales? Plans to return Beauty to growth having exited markets, etc?
- Any additional info given on the Apollo offer either in the update or on the call.
That’s all assuming Matt doesn’t surprise beforehand with something. He wants to laugh more about the SP fluctuations like he did with GN remember. 😉
👍🏻 have a big one. You can thank me later 😉
Good post AS1. People forget that things can change to the upside as fast as they changed to the low side. Might we be back there in Sept 2025? I wouldn’t rule it out, if we’re not bought out before then.
A risk on market and a return to more normal M&A levels (there’s a tsunami building in this space according to my contacts) and we’ll be flying up as we start to be compared to peers buyout prices.
No he gave it up voluntarily a few months ago jrlomax.
Licker,
*why would beauty be unimpressive?*
These are the words on the beauty update made in June, basically at the end of Q2 + my interpretation of them:
- THG wrote: “In THG Beauty, our online retail platforms have focussed on profitable sales in markets where our localised infrastructure can deliver economies of scale.”
- SBB’s interpretation: In D2C we’ve pulled out of unprofitable geo’s and focussed on where we have scale and can turn a profit, so sales are down overall but we’re making margin on what we are selling.
- THG added: “We expect further sales momentum in the second half of the year, supported by beauty manufacturing as the temporary industry-wide de-stocking comes to an end.”
- SBB interpretation: if B2B restocking occurs as we expect we’ll make this up in H2 and get back to stronger sales. If the signs aren’t there that re-stocking is occurring, we might see some downgrades. Hopefully it is given wider industry growth that you note.
What I will not buy is that any weakness in Beauty results on results day is negative. It should be priced in because they told us what they’re focussed on in June. The market has also constantly rolled out the “revenue is vanity, profit is sanity” line at THG. It can’t have it both ways; if it delivers it’s Ebitda numbers you can’t flip at sales being lower/flatter.
For me, having three distinctly different divisions is a major strength of THG’s. That’s why I invest a lot more here than I do in BOO or ASOS who basically have one core product you’re exposed to… and when is rains all summer you’re screwed. I don’t expect the different divisions to fire on all cylinders at the same time. Regardless of peers, if Beauty takes a chill pill in 2023 after being the growth engine for a few years, and Nutrition picks up the slack, I’ll be all good with that. A sign of a strong, well diversified business to me. 💪🏻 💪🏻
Have to say OSG, it does feel like those that are
II’s have always held, but feels like the PI’s that are “in” see this as a longer term play and the long-term value that will be created by holding tight.
I’d just love to see some new II’s start stake building. Maybe that’ll come after results next week. Kelso quiet atm, which is odd.
Have given up predicting where we’ll be when, but decent results may give us the volume we need for another 70% rise. £1.70 by year end feels about right to me heading in to next year.
I’m no Chartist. Would that be the handle forming on the cup and handle?
Then it’s just a case whether corporate action unfolds.
Great to re-read the trading statement OSG.
Easy to forget that was published just 2.5 months ago when we pay so much attention to the daily price fluctuations.
My predictions for next week are:
- stonking nutrition numbers, both revenue and Ebitda, increased guidance.
- Unimpressive beauty revenue but decent/protected margins. Conservative guidance depending on whether restocking has occurred as planned.
- Decent, middle of the road, Ingenuity numbers. Guidance depending on whether they’ve landed more clients we don’t know about.
Above all I’d FINALLY like some real clarity on strategy - are we premium listing, if so when, or are we taking a different path, if so what? Hoping MM has a rabbit up his sleeve on either the numbers or strategy side.
Presume it was the official app launch then? Good to see THG investing in tech for the City Am acquisition. Hopefully that can help spread its national and global reach (longer term).
Ah that is correct OAC , recall that now.
Looking forward to the update and knowing what’s what.
Two weeks to go 🎉 🚀
There was no call last time was there?
Just catching up. Knew the volume would tick up as soon as traders were back at their desks.
This is being well controlled but heading north. Way north of where we are now. Everyone can see what’s happening now. Just sit & hold and let it play out.