RE: Red or black?11 Aug 2023 11:31
Spent some time making my assessment of the situation after my glass half full comments earlier and I'm certainly leaning towards a deal subject to Canmax voting for the additional headroom. I think the loan is part of the mix (Biztech has made some reasonable points about that - not sure that I agree that GR will fund that by selling Prem shares though).
Canmax may well be upset about the FM and I agree with Acker that there will be some give from GR to compensate for this.
If there was no deal or no prospect of a deal then I'm pretty sure that GR would have known that last weekend. He would have had to have updated the market by now.
The silence from Stark is interesting as well - I think GR has insisted on radio silence to maintain the FM position. Gut feel again is that Stark have made progress.
Given Canmax's action at the last vote, GR is right to wait until the actual vote before announcing just in case and insisting on silence about progress beforehand.
If there is a deal then it's lift-off on Monday.
Canmax would be wise to play the long game - quite apart from the Li3 news, as many of us have highlighted previously, the big prize is in the EPO area.
Looking forward to this weekend - Scotland win against France(?), family celebration for a significant birthday for yours truly and a positive outcome for Prem!