Member Info for steward1

Oops - if you've reported correctly what GR has said to you in this rather cosy relationship that you have with him, he's reduced the amount that's in the ground by 25%! Same ole, same ole from GR!!

SK - there's no worrying here... simply assessing the risk.
If there is a delay/issue, where will they get the cash?
Answer the question - how much free cash will they have at the end of Q2? What will that cash enable them to do?
Where is the evidence of the approaches to replace Suzhou?
If they go back to Suzhou to further develop their relationship (to get funds, in other words), what is it going to cost Prem shareholders... another 13/14% of Prem for a few million quid?
If they don't go back to Suzhou... what does that tell you about their 'partnership'?

As I've said already, some folks on here have had one too many sherries and are getting a wee bit carried away with their lauding of GR and their selective representation of the past.
And, of course, they only want you to focus on the hoped-for beginning of production... which is a major milestone, of course... what about beyond that?
There is still a long way to go before we can be confident that the pilot plant is running smoothly and producing at the levels required not only to pay off Suzhou but to also provide enough funds to expand the pilot mine and to seriously explore and develop the non-pilot plant area. After all, we're supposedly sitting on the largest lithium deposit in the world. So lets look forward like some are suggesting -
If there is any delay or issue at the pilot plant in the next 6 months, what funds do Prem have to rectify the delay/issue?
By the end of Q2, what funds will Prem have to explore and further develop the non-pilot plant area and/or the EPO area OR to expand the pilot plant?
If GR doesn't have enough funds, where is he going to get those funds from?
How strong a position will GR be in to negotiate getting those funds?
Same questions for the end of 2023?

Of course, Acker... time will tell.

Remember, I was predicting 1p by now... partly on progress at the pilot plant and partly on RUS/DFS progress. I think 1p will come once we've got production going smoothly... Q3?

I'd like to see a similar level of urgency and discipline on expansion when it comes.

Hey Acker,
first of all, I would have loved to see all the offers that were on the table. GR would have had his reasons for rejecting them - I reckon one of the main reasons was that he would've had to have stepped down and, for him, that would've been a step too far... even if it had made us all a bit richer! Suzhou have accepted GR as the CEO but I reckon that they've got a very tight oversight on current activity AND I'd bet that they've got a plan to wrestle the majority away from GR soon enough. You have to remember that GR wasn't negotiating from a position of strength because he didn't have (and still doesn't have) a RUS or a DFS even though shareholders had stumped up for them... how many times did we hear that the DFS was fully funded and on track!!!!
We are where we are but that's not because GR's masterplan is coming to fruition... quite the opposite. Ironically, I think we'll end up in the same place with owning less than 50% of Prem and with someone else running the show.

Apologies for offending you, Acker - the Pandora group jibe was a bit low... sorry!

Careful Acker... I might begin to think that you're in cahoots with the Pandora group. I'd suggest that my comments are realistic and balanced rather than negative. To look forward, one has to look back... it's good, healthy, even necessary to reflect and learn from the past. Will GR repeat some of the previous failures... probably not but one of the biggest risks is that Suzhou have tied him up so tightly that one slip and it all falls apart. I sincerely hope that GR can deliver the pilot plant and the production at the levels, to the quality, within budget and in the timescale to satisfy the Suzhou contract AND to deliver enough funds to progress the rest of Zulu and the EPO area.
All you need to know is that I'm still invested but I have another sum waiting to go in once production actually starts.

There's a lot to be happy about and there is less risk (there is not zero risk though) but I'm afraid, unlike SK, I don't see GR as CEO of the year yet. For me, it's still a major flaw that we don't have a RUS or DFS... the amount in the ground might not be important to SK but I'm concerned that he's mentioned a figure of only 7.5mt... goodness, we're supposed to have the biggest deposit of lithium in the world but, after years of procrastination, we're only talking about 7.5mt!! I'm not the type to trawl through hundreds of previous posts (and I've not been paying the close attention that I used to) but the last figure I can remember was 10mt. If GR is now walking back that figure then I'd start to get slightly concerned. Compare that to the figures previously banded about for Zulu as a whole without and with the EPO area and I'd suggest that we're still a minnow.

It does seem that everyone is getting a bit carried away - Happyhols said "Gr has not given up any of Prem to get us in production." I seem to remember GR giving away 13% of Prem to get us to this stage... and, if Prem does become the monster that we hope it will, that 13% is going to be worth way, way more than 50% of Zulu (without the EPO area). Sorry to repeat old points but I can't stand by and let SK make out that GR is some sort of genius!

As for the pilot plant, there's still a lot to do and the recent drop in sp, for me, signalled that not all was going exactly to plan. I'll take anything that GR and SK has to say with a pinch of salt... let's see what the next 3 months brings. I wouldn't be surprised to see a bit more turbulence. Any hint of a delay or an issue will dent the sp.

And, please remember, GR has never produced anything of any significance in several attempts over the last 5 years.

Wolf, as I said, I'm hoping to see production and a re-rate next year. I'm frustrated about progress even in the last few months... the pilot mine is fine, even with a delay... it's everything else... that's why we're lagging at this level.

chipleader - you timed your investment well to get that return. Congratulations. Some of us first invested back in 2017/18 and I have to say that Prem should really have been producing long before now. Not only that, we should have had a DFS in place and GR should be doing some serious exploration in the EPO area. We are where we are! Earlier in the year, I had hoped to see the sp nearer 1p by now... not just because of the progress with the pilot mine but because we would have had some additional progress on RUS/DFS and some interest in the 50% of take-off that Suzhou don't have. I even thought that there would be at least a sniff of a takeover deal being whispered about. I think that there will be a re-rate some time next year if Prem produce what they say they will produce BUT it depends on GR delivering on time and to the volume expected. I think there will be a wee bit of slippage on starting production and I'm long enough in the tooth to know that getting to the production levels that GR has touted may not be straightforward.

I am also concerned that we don't have progress on anything other than the pilot mine. Zulu has always been talked about as being massive but we only have some sense of what is in the pilot area. There's been talk of other goodies in the ground but we only have a partial handle on the pilot area with no plan to do anything else.

Without a plan beyond the pilot production and without a handle on the EPO area, we're at risk of being taken out on the cheap.

Hey Acker,
Hope that you're well. I had hoped to be nearing 1p by now but it's not to be. Earlier in the year, I had thought that GR would find a way to move ahead with the DFS/RUS. I had also expected to hear about some other interest in Zulu but that's not transpired either. I'm not concerned about a slippage in to Q2 either and I fully expect 1p in Q2/3.

I've been wondering about last week's drop and I think the RNS confirms my thoughts. I think that someone somewhere found out that there are delays and they're working all the way through Christmas to recover those delays and still deliver in Q1. It is a very tight project plan so GR needs everything from hereon in to hit dates. I wouldn't be surprised if it now slips into Q2.
As long as GR can reconfigure the plan to show a Q1 delivery, he doesn't need to explicitly admit that there is a delay.

All good now ProfitBags - thanks for asking.
With Prem, we're seeing the consequences of the approach that GR chose... I think it offered him the quickest route to some cash but also had downsides. Whilst not surprising, I'm concerned that he's created doubt about delivery... at this point in time, the delays on component parts of the project don't seem to have an impact on overall delivery but there will be a point when they will if delayed further. We have to remember that the timescale was very tight to begin with. I'm hoping that GR can keep it all moving together but it did sound as if he was under some pressure. I've reset my expectations about when the pilot mine will go live - I have fluctuated over the last 3 or 4months! As for the sp, there's a danger that there's no positive messages for a couple of months and a risk that there's some official delay. Safest approach is to hold for the upturn in Q2 imho.

Alexholder - GR has no other funds to do anything. The Chinese have tied his hands so much that he only has funds for the pilot mine.
He should have some bandwith himself to plan for the future, to seek new funds and progress the rest of the EPO. Unfortunately, he sounds as if he is completely consumed by the pilot mine. I'm not sure how far the drop will go but I'm looking forward to Spring time.

barnetpeter - I was almost tempted to have my rant about GR's performance over the years. I'm afraid the interview the other day was back to his old ways. I think the fall is partly due to the backdrop of economies around the world going into recession (even China seems to be going backward), the consequential impact on EV take-up and a decrease in Li price. The main thing though is that GR has managed to create some doubt about how much resource is there for the pilot mine and, even though he says that it is still on track, he also managed to create some doubt by mentioning some delays!
From memory, he was pretty bullish a couple of months ago but this interview didn't come over well for me. Doesn't appear that the throngs of potential suitors are banging on his door anymore for the other 50% off-take or for building other facilities or for exploring the remainder of the EPO. SP drop is a reflection of the disappointment that only the pilot mine is being progressed. And it doesn't sound like he has a plan once the cash starts rolling in.
This was GR at his worst and the sp has responded accordingly.

Haven't posted for a while - hope that you're all doing well... certainly see that not much has changed here! My hope that we'd hit 1p by eoy seems a bit optimistic.... GR does an interview and the sp drops... same ole, same ole. The news about the RUS and DFS are not surprising given his track record and the fact that the Chinese have got him tightly controlled means that he can't spend their money on anything but the pilot plant... for me, that has positives! The downside is that we're no nearer knowing how much stuff is in the ground... if we had more info around this then the sp would be a lot higher. We'll just have to wait until GR has some cash to spend.

Wolf - as many people have said, they're required to mention that in the RNS's even if there's the smallest risk. It doesn't mean that it is going to happen.

Wolf - I'm not sure of the technicalities at all but I think it would be fair to say that the judge can have an influence, perhaps significant, over the eventual outcome. He's there to ensure that everyone plays ball... an extreme situation but he wouldn't allow the creditors to immediately wipe shareholders out if there's a reasonable alternative plan where the creditors can still get their money back over a period of time.
What is interesting and attractive for holders is that Cine has an improving situation post-Covid. There's not a mass closure of cinemas expected because they won't make money...roll forward to next summer or next winter and there's an even better proposition.
The key question for me is whether there is some value for shareholders above the current sp once the dust settles, in whatever format. I think there will be.

There's also the Section 341 meeting (Creditor's meeting) later today at 1:30pm CT time. Could be interesting!

I'm of the mind that they will either get a sale or a partial sale. The other option is that shareholders get wiped out completely. Of the three, I think the most probable is where Cine can raise enough cash through a partial sale and possibly some d4e to get a more manageable level of debt and satisfy the judge. I think a full sale is the next option and Cine is likely to be able to command a price much higher than the current MC. I think lenders taking over and shareholders being wiped out is least likely.
C11 is all about breathing space and giving a company enough time to get on a more solid footing... which is exactly what Cine are doing. Given the improving situation post-Covid, I think they can convince the judge that they have a realistic and reasonable plan to exit C11 without having to wipe us out.
I don't know about £1 per share but this should do nicely over the next 6 months.