Member Info for steph

could not see the reason for the Bellway dip. I suppose expectations rather than results. Might creep back up over the next few days.

Agree with all of your analysis strictly. The different builders offer different plusses and minuses. Only Tef for me had a compelling case to be 100% concentrated.

I have a large Bellway holding in spite of a low dividend due to an expectation they will do better than the others in a downturn. I have a lot of crest and some persimmon for the opposite reasons. High dividends now. Builders were all moving in lockstep up to todays drop for Bellway.

Since I came out of TEF I have bought the following and had the following rises (excluding dividends) in order of the size of my holding:
1) Crest, +11.2%
2) Bellway +9.6%
3) Redrow +7.5%
4) Persimmon+17.65%
5) INland +16.4%
6) City of London Investment Group -3.5%
7) Berkeley+13.0%

City of London is a pure contrarian play and should move independently to UK builders or even a UK recession. Divi of 6.5% and growth potential. P/E of 12 which is not a bad buy in point for a non builder with a big dividend. Very wide spread so need to plan to hold for a long time.

10% sector rise just on rumor of no deal

What would we get with a signed deal or even better no brexit

Must be +50% even from here

We are ruled by idiots

Hope it is all priced in and when sanity returns we will get a great wave to surf up 50%

I’m all in hoping this is temporary.

Thanks

I’m around 35% crest. Maybe premature this side of retirement to have that high a percentage of a high dividend paying stock but cash is cash after being pushed out of tef long before I thought the sp was mature. Reinvesting 9% even with modest sp rises is still a very good return.

I am hoping crest double back into london as I think that is the best and most stable housing market long term.
For the life of me I can’t figure out why inland has risen more than the rest. If I knew I’d have more than 6%

London city a very different sector and continent and a slow steady riser with a 6% dividend. As our builders pay dividends I’ll increase my 5% weighting in that one. As I get to know it better I could go much higher. Money to be made in money management to be sure.

Strictly04 Oct 2019 11:40
Strictly

Why not a heavier weighting of crest given the better p/e than the rest with similar profit growth ?

I’m currently split in order of weighting from high to low
Crest
Bellway
Redrow
persimmon
City of london investment. CLIG
Berkeley

I’ve made the most off inland since switching all out of tef in spite of 2nd worst p/e

Still feel quite blind outside tef which I was happy to hold for 20 years until it was a much bigger company. 10 year expectations is that sector Dividends we have will at best double. Sp’s I expect will go up 3x part profits growth and part political uncertainty elimination bonus.

Strictly Why not a heavier weighting of crest given the better p/e than the rest with similar profit growth I’m currently split in order of weighting from high to low CrestBellwayRedrowInland PersimmonCity of london investment. CLIGBerkeley I’ve made the most off inland since switching all out of tef in spite of 2nd worst p/e Still feel quite blind outside tef which I was happy to hold for 20 years until it was a much bigger company. 10 year expectations is that sector Dividends we have will at best double. Sp’s I expect will go up 3x part profits growth and part political uncertainty elimination bonus.

The stupider Boris gets the more likely we will have a mild or no Brexit. So I see yesterday as investment positive for our sector. Lying to the Queen, dumping on a dead MP. Hinting he will break the law. All good stuff.

Naughty to imply he actually burned 50 pound notes in front of the homeless (alleged Bullingdon club initiation ceremony ) but has enough of a ring of truth to it to stick. More damaging politically than Cameron's alleged Bullingdon initiation involving a pigs head and private parts.

The attack line in a real election campaign of a group of privileged prat boys carelessly wrecking stuff in the name of Brexit for a laugh is potent and plays into one of Corbyns rare strength's.

Latest poll had cons on 27% lib labour on 24, lib dems on 22 and brexit on 16. That produces a hung parliament with a probably Labour, SNP, lib dem coalition. However I think the polling and the seat calculators are all overstating Tory support. They are asking the question as if the old tory party existed and included the 22 one nation MP's Boris just turfed out. Strip those out and the situation is much more dire for Boris. No easy methodological way of stripping those out so we have a polling distortion. Boris's honeymoon bounce is ending. Bluster only gets you so far as PM. Like May he will own government failure even if not strictly his fault. There is an expectation within the voting public that you need to play the cards you get as PM not the cards you think you should have. The fact that TM had 50 Tory bastards to deal with (including RMogg and Borris J) was not considered mitigating. She was blamed for not managing the situation she had.

If Boris now needs to kiss Corbyn, Benn or Kinnock's wrinkled asses then that is what he needs to do. No sign yet that he understands that. Can't see a pathway he can recover in the polls from here. He is PM with a negative 43 seat majority (partly his fault) and is about to get kicked around a lot and made in the process to look like a paper tiger.

After being turfed out of TEF I've been looking for something outside the UK builders sector that gives me 5 or 6% dividends and some growth potential so 5 to 10 years down the line I'll have an ISA based retirement strategy back in place (with reinvestment at least double the dividends I can get now).

I'd love to do tech stocks but refuse to pay P/E's of 50 or more and very low dividends.

Below is a quote from telegraph money. Can get 6% divi and some growth potential from some.

"Fund ideas:

There are a number of investment trusts that have increased dividends consistently over decades. These include City of London, Bankers Investment Trust and Alliance Trust.

Connolly also recommends Henderson Strategic Bond, Artemis Income and Schroder Income Maximiser. Meanwhile Low**** recommends M&G Corporate Bond. He describes the manager Richard Woolnough as an “exceptional fund manager” who has skilfully managed to navigate the fin

Anybody who can read the short term movement of shares at the moment is a better person than I.

I am all in shares (almost all UK builders for the big 3 (high dividends, low P/E and at least some business volume growth) in my isa but willing to wait for years before changing strategy if there is a sudden dip. With P/E's of 7 I think there is more chance of a sp rise from here than an opportunity to top up at a significantly lower P/E.

Hot war getting ever closer in the middle east. I suspect "America First" trump has told the Saudis they pay their way if they start one so that may have dampened enthusiasm a bit. Volatile situation and a black swan for us -as if we did not have enough black swans swimming about.

My reading is market positive of what happened last night.

Very likely we will extend membership to January and then have a general election November. Will be a hung parliament. Can't see Boris winning a majority or even close enough to have a working majority. It will likely be PM Corbyn with lib dem and SNP support the vote by vote or in coalition.

A real chance of a lib dem surge to 35% which can deliver a massive 250 majority lib dem government (cons and labour on 20% and Brexit on 15%) and thus an immediate end to all this.

Even a lib dem vote of 31% (if tory 20, labour 22 and Brexit 16) produces a 45 seat majority for lib dems. There are enough anti brexit voters from Labour and conservatives at the moment (who are not at all happy with their leadership and willing to lend votes as a one off to the lib dems) to do that if during the campaign the lib dems look viable. This type of sudden late shift has occurred in Canada (federally and provincially) when there were three way fights between the Tories, liberals and NDP.

It is a 4 party fight and thus very very fluid. Tories can win a majority on as little as 31%. (31 tory, 25 labour, 17 lib dem and 16 Brexit). For my money I think they will be closer to 20 (which can result in them holding less than a rump of 20 seats) than 30 but very fluid.

Our current circumstances mean an 11% shift means the difference between Cons becoming a very small party and having a majority. The leverage of small increases in the vote is massive. May blew a 20% lead. I just don't see Boris doing well and exposure will shine a light on his contradictory platforms and responsibility avoidance.

He could win as the champion of the people -if he can keep up that act -but he can't win as a spoiled frat boy. The election will get framed in those terms.

Hard to not follow the politics as it seems to have such a big impact on our SP.

I agree with you that the day to day gyrations don't give us much. I am making two big decisions right now. What % cash, if any, in my ISA and which builders within the sector. After that probably sit back and watch the fireworks.

I've given odds of 75% to a scenario where we, extend the deadline for exit to Jan 30, have an election in November and the result is a hung parliament with Boris short of enough seats to form a government even with DUP and some elected Brexit party. Labour short of a majority and forced to negotiate with the lib dems and SNP creating a program of center left polices and a soft or no Brexit outcome That is a fairly positive assumption for our SP which his why I only have 8% cash.

Within the 25% odds are many scenarios some better or worse than others for the sector.

"We’ve already heard this morning about the potential impact of Brexit on the economy, according to KPMG.
But for a real-time picture, we can see that the pound rose close to $1.23 earlier this morning before slipping back. It is now buying $1.227. It is worth €1.113.
The pound has benefited from the government’s recent calamities, which investors have seen as making no deal less likely, in turn pushing up sterling. "

IN other words the more nonsense, chaos and resignations from the current administration the better for shares through the mechanism that it makes no deal less likely.

What a strange world we have to chose to (or not) invest.

Sounds like you have more than my 8% in cash. Trouble for me is my ISA is my retirement pot and if a miss a major rise I have less dividends with no way of recovering. So long as any dip is temporary the risk on the other side is just missing an opportunity. I preferred TEF but the sector on 6.8 P/E is historically low and they are all much de-risked compared to 2009 when P/E's were twice today and leverage was much higher.

Maybe not the best time to put money into the sector but as Buffet always says if you wait for the absolute bottom you will miss good opportunities.

What frustrates me, and probably all, is we are trying to understand political outcomes not analyzing technical market criteria. Thus we are in the hands of personality and random factors. Corbyn suddenly getting too sick to carry on would probably help our shares through the mechanism that Labour would be more able to stop a bad Brexit. Some sordid new detail of Boris's private life might do the same through the mechanism of making no deal less likely as voters and MP's abandon him.

For my money I think we are 75% likely to have national elections in November which will result in a hung parliament but with the Tories well short of a majority, maybe not even the largest party. The influence of the DUP will be dramatically reduced so a Brexit option with a border down the Irish sea becomes viable.

What Brexit policy emerges out of that hung parliament is hard to predict. Can't see anybody offering to partner with the Tories other than the DUP and any Brexit Party that make it. I predict Boris will still be short and thus it will be some other configuration made up of SNP, Lib dem and Labour.

I am still waiting for the lib dem surge beyond 20% but in the heat of a campaign they stand a good chance of a surge just as I predict the Tory vote will shrink. Indeed some polling by Comcast hints in that direction. They asked the theoretical question of voting intentions assuming no deal had been achieved and the election was in November. It came back as 26% Tory, 28 labour, 20 lib dem and 17% Brexit party. That means a hung parliament with labour some 50 seats ahead of the Tories but 50 seats short of a majority. Theoretical questions are very difficult to poll and I suspect in a real campaign the shift will be more dramatic. It was this that convinced Labour to wait until Boris fails to get a deal.

For my money in the new Parliament it will be a new referendum with remain on the ballot with up to 2 Brexit options (hard and soft). I really don't think the Brexit voting public will wear a referendum with a very mild Brexit vs remain options. If the lib dems, SNP and Labour are to tackle this problem sustainably they need the bravery to put a hard brexit option on the ballot and then win a referendum for remain or a soft brexit.

I doubt if Labour can get a majority and the market likes coalitions which moderate the extremes. Maybe happy times.

I'm terrified. Very volatile situation. I am only 8% in cash in my ISA but wonder if this is enough.

If you plug in the percentages of the recent polls which had cons on 35% Labour on 21% lib dems on 19 and Brexit party on 12% it produces a conservative majority of 136. This is the strategy of Cummings and it may well prove successful.

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=25&LAB=25&LIB=25&Brexit=12&Green=3&UKIP=2&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged®orseat=%28none%29&boundary=2017base

However I don't believe the 35% will hold up to the scrutiny of a full election campaign just as "strong and stable" did not hold for May last time and she blew a 20% lead.

At the moment "lets just get it over" as if we are cancelling our home broadband service seems attractive but much of the public don't realize crashing out is not the end of the Brexit debate, it is just the beginning of years of fraught negotiations from a weaken position. A 6 week election campaign will inform.

I think the conservative vote will shrink during to the campaign to 25% ish and the lib dems rise to 25% ish. Labour going nowhere and may remain at 25%. Brexit party on 12%. That produces a hung party with labour the largest party by some 50 seats. Minor improvements to the labour vote from that means a lot of seats. Tories start to get wiped out below 25%. If Tories on 22% and lib dems and labour on 27% Labour still short of a majority but lib dems start to surge. If you look at Canadian elections they are this volatile and have been for some decades.

Hard to believe Churchill's grandson and many other grandees such as Clark hinting don't vote conservative will not have a big impact. I don't think the conservatives can get to 30% on the British nationalist ticket. Maybe if Brexit party didn't exist nor UKIP but they have that territory covered without holding a single seat. No seat can be gained by the Tories tacking into their territory and many can be lost. Cummings strategy is northern labour leave seats are up for grabs but imagery of Rees Mogg is probably too much for most frustrate labour voters and they are more likely to not vote than vote Tory. Painting Boris and co as posh boys having a bit of fun knowing the consequences is working class jobs they or their children would never do is a powerful message.

Strict

Yes of course but odds of crashing out have reduced so sector has risen and may rise further as this gets consolidated.

Fastest way to end brexit consuming all government energy for years is cancel article 50 while we still have the chance. Second best is a second referendum that either rendí. Wins or at least gives form to a specific brexit the public has voted for.

No deal will become spectacularly unpopular when it dawns on everybody it Is only the start of years of fraught negotiations from a weak position.

whoever implemented no deal in that scenario will be radioactive for decades.

You have room to bluster about how easy it will be only before actually crashing out and Boris probably knows that,

Just like Cameron’s referendum was bluster to solve a Tory problem with ukip the crash out brigade are bullish on it to outfox brexit party, it is one of those things best left as rhetorical not actual .

I’m surprised on the upside by the politics of last week in terms of the positive impact on the sector.

Odds of crashing out have decreased substantially as contrarily is the odds of a referendum which remain wins has increased.

Pound up and sector up. I’ve also reduced my cash percentage in my isa and am 92% in shares.

Did rebalance towards a strictly like holding with more redrow and bellway but of course strictly moves so fast I now have more redrow than strictly as a percentage

Where I have perfect alignment with nearly all of you is I am nearly 100% in Uk builders. P/e s of 6.5 of all I hold is insane given none are strongly
leveraged . Any form of economic stability will prove those p/e s to be at least 50% too low.

Uk economy has had a brexit headwind for some 3 years and is still robust enough to give builders an opportunity to make good money.

Any easing of the headwind and sector will rebalance to long term p/e s , probably quickly and anticipatory so I am willing to take the risk to not be in cash.

I think Johnson is a busted flush. He won the leadership on a perception of a vote winner no matter what the personality and judgement reservations. Like may he is starting to look over promoted and out of his depth. Rambling on about brexit in front of paid police officers shows a lack of discipline that is chronic and now toxic. With the power to assemble police officers like that comes responsibility Johnson has never really faced .

Gove was probably the only Brexateer who could have steered the brexit ship to a safe harbor. Johnson such a bad captain there has been a mutiny before it hit the rocks and he had lost control and authority.

It will damage his credibility as a winner to be trapped in his pm position losing vote after vote. He does have the option to resign without an election and the queen will ask Corbyn to be pm in that circumstance. So long as Corbyn does not overplay his hand snd try to add strong Labour policy to a temporary all parties government Corbyn will have a stable majority to do brexit related stuff. .

It will but without us allowed to hold shares in it. The Yanks will make a bomb off TEF. America First I suppose.

If TEF goes public in a few years time you will see the full hidden value we were "cheated" of. It is a growing company with a great business plan in a growing market with a chronic shortage of homes and high barriers to entry for builders not already embedded. BKY most similar but not in the same phase of growth and aiming further upmarket where in my opinion the market is more volatile than the near prime under 600k market for young well paid professionals. I think TEF had it spot on and I have no alternative I hold the same confidence with.

Quite irritated that my average buy in price since 2012 in my ISA is 3.57 and I was forced out at 3.52. All that risk for a modest dividend. If the buy out had been at around the 5 year high (4.93) maybe would have felt better about it but not at 3.50. Bad timing.

we live in interesting times. As an investor I wish we didn't.

I now have about 20% cash in my ISA -the first time I have ever had cash in my isa. Think we might get a dip from here due to politics and at least I can then mitigate my sorrows with a juicy top up.

However the 80% in shares and this sector (70% Crest but with PNS, Bellway and quite a bit of redrow). Shifting slowly to these. Still enough faith in the sector to ride out this politically induced volatility and deliver the best returns available.

Parliament shenanigans and Boris bust yesterday I think helpful for our sector. Reduces chance of crashing out and the pound and out sector up (except Barratts who reported a slow down on growth of units).

When you have just had a member cross the floor loosing your majority by one not the best idea or moment to expel 21 others. If you want to do that expel them after the election you have, against the odds, just won handsomely, not before stupid when you need every seat and vote.

I expect the Boris honeymoon is over and in record time and the polling will turn against the Tories over the next few weeks and the lib dems will gain. Labour will drift but that might not matter. Oddly Labour can drop to 25% vote and still keep 100% it's current seats with a 4 way fight between Brexit (on say 15%), Lib dem, tory and labour. Tories, unlike Labour, loose seats fast at around 25% and catastrophically at 22%. Lib dems start to surge above 25% which I think is very obtainable for them. Very unpredictable and a bad time for the Tories to distance themselves from their moderate wing. Many Brexit voting Labour voters are less likely to vote Tory for the first time if it is considered tacking to the right which it is. Also with two hard Brexit parties available can't see a Labour to Tory shift with Boris at all. Bad strategy of Cummings. Not going to happen.

Lib dems will be picking up Tory seats by the bucket load. Neither UKIP or Brexit party hold any seats so Tories tacking into their turf offers no prospect of compensating gains -just defense against losses. Not a winning strategy I think.

Cummings/Boris are not evil geniuses but merely been lucky enough to be in the right place at the right time with the surprise win of the 2016 referendum.

Boris has morphed quickly from the Heineken candidate to the Marmite candidate. As the Marmite candidate Tory support can slump easily to 25% in the current circumstances and the result could be circa 100 seats. Can't have the well liked leader of the house and former chancellor speaking of his (ex)party as he does and not loose a lot of Tory moderate voters who just want stability -even if they did vote leave.

macro so depressing I can hardly bear to post on it. As a nation self inflicted economic problems from a nation that had a reputation as one of the best managed.

I am starting to gear up for no deal. Still think balance of probability it will not happen but odds are now significant. I'd say 40%. If it happens with no last minute reprieve our sp will dip and stay down for a while. It wil in time recover though.

I think the post crash out political landscape with be quite different than now and in the medium run good for our shares. The nativist political tendency in what I expect is it's peak of influence and maximum concentration in government will have shown they are reckless chancers with nothing for the average citizen. Then begins the slow march back to stability. We will have had our mini nativist revolution and come out the other side slightly chastised and more realistic on what a mid sized nation can achieve in the modern world. Maybe most of the deal we had with the EU will still be on offer and we are likely to take it and then not to touch that relationship for decades.

80% of movement of any Uk builder is sector wide movement so understanding sector important even if like me you are concentrated in one share. We just don’t have a sector chat room,

Strictly jumps within sector and well worth understanding why.

My indicator of Euro trouble (which has brought our shares and the sector to horrible lows before) is green. Italian 10 year bond yields down to 1.33 which is very low and indicates that for all the Italian political shenanigans the expectation is the Euro is stable. Italy can on it's own crash the Euro, which in turn crashes UK banks (through exposre to EU banks) which in turn crashes our economy.

It is remarkable how sanguine the market is to the evidence that the American president is a complete fool and probably mentally unstable. The latest tweets about the second coming and cancelling a visit to Denmark because they won't sell Greenland have not made a single market ripple. Boris looks genuinely a stable statesman by comparison. The whole global system seems able to run on auto pilot for a bit.

I don't have a strong conviction anymore with regards to our Brexit nor for any individual share. I like the UK builders as a sector but don't have a strong view on which ones.

I don't think the odds of crashing out are as high as 40% and I am fully invested in the sector according as I expect some upside news. I believe 40% risk is priced in. Yes it seems like political gridlock at the moment (sort of like the fatalism in the run up to WW1) but there are ways forward and we are not at war. There are 4 main ways forward and probably many others I've not thought of:

1) Boris dumps the DUP, stays as PM in a minority government on a vote by vote basis and allows a customs border in the backstop (or future agreement) down the Irish sea and calls that a great success.
2) Parliment dumps Boris and forms a goverment opposed to crashing out.
3) Boris himself calls for a new referedum to get a mandate for a hard brexit and either unilaterally cancels article 50 or asks EU for enough time to have the second referendum.
4) Parliment votes to disolve itself and new elections produce a stable government with an implementable Brexit (or anti Brexit) policy.

At this stage as investors we only need stability rather than any particular Brexit or no Brexit outcome so long as it is orderly and maintinans good relations with our former partners in the EU. Bad relations already partly priced in to a degree.