Member Info for steph

Thanks for the post.

Invesco dropping out I suppose is the reason for the retrace from circa 500. I'm hoping to top up before the finals are out so silver lining for me.

Always churn of corporate owners. In many ways the micro investor such as ourselves are a more stable yet often forgotten base.

I'm in GROW for the long term. If I watch the SP bounce about in the short term due to corporates taking profit and shifting about I'd have pulled my hair out long ago. Just unpredictable for the micro investors such as ourselves.

We need to be more Buffet like long term value investors to win rather than Lion of Wall Street chasing short term gyrations. Takes patience though that I sometimes don't have.

was weird

I tested a real sell and let it time out. It was over 10 points higher. Does not normally happen.

The 5 analysts offering 12 month price targets for Draper Esprit PLC have a median target of 640.00, with a high estimate of 700.00 and a low estimate of 617.00. The median estimate represents a 38.83% increase from the last price of 461.00.

good for you.

Finals next month should give the SP some additional support perhaps more solidly to 500 this time and a bit beyond but I don't except now a decisive leg up to 550 or 600 until the half yearly results in this jittery market. Then the lack of negative covid impact on the GROW portfolio will be much clearer. All brokers indicating around 630 even in this jittery market.

It's a bit like a coiled spring. I've been steadily upping the % of my portfolio that is GROW as I look at the sector and the GROW trust holdings.

I want technology stocks, I want younger fast growing technology stock, I want to avoid overbought USA technology stock, I want lots of AE and internet based business models, I want a good P/E buy in point. GROW does all that for me and in private companies I can't directly buy into.

still hoping on finals new push to go above 500. I'll top up next week when funds come in. Maxed out for now.

topped up some more just under 4.75. Very, very happy with that.

Can't find a reason for the retrace today except profit taking. Hits 500 and bounces off. was up to 510 first thing on open. I'm expecting 550 on results late July.

Topped up today at below 490

Happy with that

The last trade was a large one so should open near that

I’ll add some more soon even if a bit over 500. I think grow will benefit from Covid accelerated trends.

I'm topping up every time it dips below 470.

somebody is taking profit which is delaying a push to 550 -which I expect over the next few months.

We will get a further boost on results in late July and then next stop is half yearly results in November. I'd expect that the real positive trading results post COVID for most GROW companies will be apparent in the half year results and the valuations will not need to be so conservative as they were closing March 31 2020 in the middle of a pandemic and with only a month or so to define the trading impact.

When the known world is collapsing valuations tend to be overly conservative. Lots of hints the trends unleased by COVID will be net positive not net negative for GROW.

older IC View on discount to NAV below in quotes. Personally I think in the medium term these will not trade at a NAV discount at all once GROW have a long enough track record with accurate valuations. Given the fast growth in a sector you can't buy any other way maybe a premium and some anticipation of future NAV growth on top of that.

"As such, some analysts think Draper's shares should trade above book value. The unpredictable nature of realisations, reliance on private valuations and a strategy to reinvest cash realisations into new opportunities suggest this could be wishful thinking. Then again, net asset value (NAV) per share has climbed by 54 per cent in two years, and Mr Cook reports a “strong pipeline” of deals including both portfolio companies and new investments. A 31 per cent discount to forecast 2021 NAV makes this an underrated story. Buy."

excellent news.

Based on our chat and a bit of emotional "gut feel" bought just before it went up yesterday. Added the shares to my spread bet position as my ISA is maxed out.

Even my spread bet is a long term hold (3+ years). Works out to about 3% interest for the privilege of no tax on the capital gains. Useless waste of money if no capital gains and useless if just holding income stocks at 5% combined dividend/capital gain but I am confident it will be 20% plus/ year with GROW so well worth the 3% cost of shielding it.

I do use the leverage available on a spread but only very modestly. Currently my spread is backed by about 2/3rds cash. Can't imagine we will get the 50% drop that would cause me trouble there but you never know. I'm hoping natural SP growth to 550 in the next few months will increase my % cash coverage to 3/4ths -almost fully paid for.

We seem to be the only two true GROW groupies on this board. I like posting as it help clarify my thoughts and provides contrarian challenge.

It is an uncertain macro environment to be sure and for me GROW has an ability to quietly and steadily expand beneath the stormy weather and waves.

I agree sub 500 is a great opportunity for top up and then lock in for several years. Even 600 over the next few months not bad.

While the update guidance means the 20% capital growth per share target will not be met this year ending March 31 2020 I am still impressed and feel there will be a bit of "catch up" in the following 2 years. You could say the portfolio has been stress tested and come through with minimal damage. Not a dot com bubble situation. The GROW firms have shown they have real revenue that can even survive a sudden recession. The more I learn about GROW the more comfortable I get.

It's a large part (majority) of my ISA and in that I have a 10 year perspective on SP. Don't care about dividends yet as I am not drawing out. In any case capital growth (you can use to make a draw ) and dividends are equal in an ISA tax wise.

I worry more about no deal Brexit right now than COVID. I don't think the market has priced in the chaos that will come as brinkmanship takes us to the edge again. In many respects the market has priced in a bit of election propaganda that "Brexit is done" which is obviously not true.

GROW by being reasonably EU wide and long term growth oriented is partially insulated to UK short term gyrations. Hard to know what is a safe haven region right now.

China could pull up the drawbridge with the world with would make all Chinese firms crash on the markets. US politically unstable right now and capable of great self harm. Large successful US tech, energy and banking companies that can grow in spite of political instability help USA mitigate the impact of the current idiots in Washington but patience must be limited. Tight immigration, especially against Chinese, hurts US global tech, bio, and business service firms a lot and they might shift growth elsewhere where they can get their international employees in and out. Riots and ramping xenophobia don't help inward (and even internal) investment.

I have a substantial investment in Polar Capital with is 70% US weighted but thinking of trimming that a bit and putting more into the EU focused GROW.

Once COVID and Brexit damage over UK property market and with it underpriced UK builders will be good buys but not this year. I might pivot back a bit at the right time. Permanently low interest rates (doubling affordability permanently on an earnings/price criteria) and London housing market still suffering Brexit and now COVID mean there is some HP and SP catch up. UK having a reasonably stable and liberal immigration policy for skilled and professional workers compared to USA will help London property market. Residency for wealthy Hong Kong

Thanks, I read the times tip following your lead.

I think overcautious but still aligned with the consensus that GROW are undervalued and will rise nicely from here. It's a matter of when, not whether.

For no scientific reason I have a share price of 850 penciled in for July 2022. That assumes a 20 to 30% per annum nav per share increase for the next 2 years (Year end March 31 2021 and 2022) and an elimination of the 17% discount to NAV we have now. It also assumes our final results will be slightly better than the cautions update, Covid is over, Brexit uncertainty hanging over UK and EU shares is over, interest rates remain ultra low, and Trump starts no big wars. Not heroic assumptions. Unusual number of black swans at the moment bearing down on all SP's GROW included.

We have had recently broker valuations at above 700 so 850 within two compete fiscal years is very doable -and even a cautious middle probability rather than a high target.

https://shareprices.com/news/broker-forecast-peel-hunt-issues-a-broker-note-on-draper-esprit-plc-rtuf4ldycprd6b2

No reason at all for grow to trade under its 550 Mac per share.

As IC states a case given growth rate and difficulty in investing in these fast growing assets for a sp above nav/share.

I’ll buy on any dip but don’t think we will get one

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/news/market-news/market-news-detail/GROW/14555565.html

https://techcrunch.com/2020/05/27/aircall-raises-65-million-for-its-cloud-based-phone-system/

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/918885/listed-private-equity-funds-offer-compelling-long-term-buying-opportunity-918885.html

I was told way back on the TW board micro trades are brokers signaling to each other how much they want to buy or sell. Can't find a google reference but it makes sense. It makes no sense for a retail trader such as ourselves as the broker fee makes the margin silly.

Usually appear when movement is strong up or down. Large buyers or sellers don't want to revel themselves lest the market anticipate. Basically a large buyer and large seller trying to find each other and both fearful if they register the full volume they want on the exchange the price will instantly move against them.