Member Info for steph

Recommendation =Lead, influencer, analyst

The further I get from the southeast commuting zone the less comfortable I get. The midlands will get a bad hit with brexit even though they voted for it.

London still building new office space that will likely get filled. Economically may as well be a different country.

Good to see you both on this board. I'm mostly into crest with a bit here and in persimmon (both on Strictly' s recommendations).

I really have not wrapped my mind around the housing markets of non-London builders. I knew East London well. My general thesis is that London is a unique global city benefiting from strong globalization trends -while the rest of the UK is not. Thus caution on any builder who has the majority of their portfolio outside a reasonable commuting distances to London's diverse and still growing jobs market. Of course this is a long term trend and in the short term the UK regions can shine for a bit.

Edinburgh maybe a bit of an exception with a strong mini business and financial services hub and the possibility of being in the EU and in the UK simultaneously at some future point making it a rival mini hub to Dublin. Northern Ireland just too small to get the same effect.

I'm all in shares (of which 100% UK house builders) and not cash which may or may not be a mistake. Time will tell. Polities dire but maybe bad news is priced in and we might get a surprise on the upside soon.

Crashing out now given 40% odds and probably priced in. Boris compromising would be a market boost. Some form of alternative government following a non-confidence motion would be a big market boost. Yes it would be likely led by Corbyn but he would need to agree a program (beyond Brexit ) with the lib dems, SNP and rebel Tories that would be centrist and thus market pleasing (on top of relief that we are heading for either no Brexit or at least a mild negotiated and orderly Brexit.

I think Corbyn is so egotistical he will want to be the figure head of such a coalition more than improving the odds of formation by putting some other figure forward and then pressing for a more left leaning agreement on the program itself. He is just the wrong left wing leader to have at such a crucial juncture. Inflexible, insecure and a shallow non strategic thinker. He just has not moved on from being a loyal to the cause protest oriented backbench MP. He is not a leader -which requires tactical, intellectual and management skills.

Welcome to Crest board. I (we) am a refugee from Telford.

Different business model to TEF but enough there to attract over 80% of my ISA holding for now. If divi holds these are very cheap and as Rapper mentions even without sp rises the result, with 100% reinvestment and compounding, means our holdings double in value every 7 years or so.

Seen this sp go up and down a bit since I bought (currently down). Hoping to see 500 plus as soon as Brexit mess clarified.

Hard to figure what Johnson cabinet means for sector share prices

While a hard brexit cabinet should be bad for sector sp’s so much of that bad political news was priced in.

Patel the Everest of ideology over brains. On that appointment Johnson does share something with trump and it is worrying. You can do a lot of damage to people’s lives as Home Secretary but Johnson obviously does not care. It was convenient for him. Butler in a senior post was probably unavoidable to keep erm on board but the lack of sophistication the shape of the times. Johnson personally trashed the foreign secretary post do he probably was not fishing for talent just letting political iou’s get cashed.
It is a cabinet of hard Brexiteers and toadies.

That said any orderly transfer of power impresses some foreigners who have worse transitions than we have. To get senior appointments so fast and for the civil service to stay in place at the top is internationally unusual and never fails to impress those without that tradition and procedures in place.

Thanks for the updates in an area I and other posters lack the experience you have.

I think the sp is seriously undervalued and the politics, although sounding dire right now, will surprise on the upside. Boris is for Boris and now he will be in the lead he will be in favour of stability rather than being a disrupt or on the sidelines. Stability is good for Boris. He gets to keep the job longer.

I am fully invested assuming this. Hope I’m right and he is not about to lead the charge of the light brigade on the world stage.

Hunt and may screwed up on seizing a tanker with which we had no legal grounds and no military means to enforce our will regardless of grounds.

If =in

Tight=right

booze =ooze

I believe that there will be a modest bounce upwards next week if the sector as Boris pivots to the centre after winning the members vote on the tight. He is awful pm material but not stupid and will say warm things that booze confidence generally and will only get contradicted by events and facts in the fullness of time,

I’m fully invested in the sector with no cash.

Hoping tef for us tiddlers has a future after cbre rejected.

the standard is using ons data which is actual registered sales -and thus is a lagging indicator. My quote is using the rightmove asking price survey which is a lead indicator as it tends to look 3 months into the future on what actual sales will likely be. This shows stabilization in London and no decline at all in the inner London Boroughs. As July is normally a bad month for asking prices this is considered stable.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/house-price-index/

"The price of property coming to market in Greater London falls by a modest 0.2% (-£939) this month. This compares favourably to the average 0.6% monthly fall for July over the previous five years. A significant drop in the number of properties coming to market is helping to balance supply with the reduced demand, and underpin prices."

Quite the opposite in london the rate of falling is moderating with many boroughs showing modest increases.

29-May-19 Shore Capital House Stock - 355.00 Reiteration

How can you have a recommended bid below the target price of the in house broker? This bid is not above the average of the last 12 months either. It is above the average of the last 6 months but why chose that? CBRE are buying in a temporary dip.

There has been no company specific bad news that shows that the long term potential of TEF has worsened. We will have 2 years of completions (and thus the main volume of profit realization) down but the pipeline is larger (stretching out to 2026 and beyond) and thus there will be catch up to the trend line of volume and SP growth.

I am partially irritated our BODS and house broker have not given some guidance to EPS for 21/22 year when EPS should accelerate again. They were all keen to give forward guidance when we had the dilution but now very quiet.

Seems they are trying to be helpful to CBRE by withholding future good news. Who would vote for this deal if EPS projections show this is a very temporary dip in strong EPS growth to 60p and beyond.

as you I've mostly flipped over to crest as the closest fit to my strategy to TEF. A 9% yield does not hurt either.

While Crest is not itself saying it wants to grow fast it is saying that growth of 3% is the plan (as you'd expect with over 1/3rd of EPS retained) alongside some reduction in risk by deleveraging.

So if I reinvest the 9% divi and we get 3% growth that will still be a 12% share value growth for me until I need to draw upon my ISA for retirement even without any SP lift form better sentiment (and at 6.7 P/E there is a long was to bounce back if sentiment changes).

12% growth with 9% of that compounded is still doubling every 6 or 7 years until I start to draw down the dividends. Not what I was hooping for from TEF but still not shabby.

If this CBRE deal is voted down I'll shift back to TEF as I suspect will others. Doubt if there would be a major price retrace if the deal voted down (delighted if there was on a personal level but I doubt it). Whoever is buying a large stake likely to be strategic and will provide, alongside tiddlers like me, support. Plus CBRE offer and shareholder resistance will have highlighted the intrinsic value so there will be more interest.

Sain

It baffles me this CBRE sale

Tef were not in need of the cash so why sell at such a low price?

It makes no sense to me. I’d understand a bid at 4.25. Not welcome by some but maybe in the average shareholders interest to accept.

Who wants to be forced to sell at 3.50? those shareholders wanting to exit have had many months of recent opportunity to exit at that price or better (plus4.00) over the last 12 months and there will likely will be many more over the next 24 months without cbre

Tail wagging the dog I’m afraid

CBRE bought tef at a P/e ratio of just 7.8 with presumably good news on earnings kicking in in 2021 forwards.

FTSE is 17

Iranian market is 8.4. How can TEF have a P/E half the FTSE and less then the Iranian market after this "generous" buy. Our BODS have lost their bottle.

12-Jul-19 08:53:42 349.81 770,000 Sell* 350.50 351.00 3m O ?
12-Jul-19 08:53:14 350.175 550,000 Sell* 350.50 351.00 2m O ?

To sell 5m pounds of shares and not to dent the SP means someone very big is buying.

Could it be our white knight or just CBRA hovering up shares to consolidate their bid using proxies.

I have no experience in these things but I put low odds on a counter bid in time -say 10 to 20%. Unless one was brewing already the due diligence makes it hard to hit the timeline. More likely is us shareholders vote this down. Only 25% need to rebel. I'd give odds on rejection as high as 30%. New bids might emerge after that as I suspect the sector did not think TEF was in play. I don't know what price the rebels would be looking for but plus 4.00 seems likely.

If voted down I'll be back in force to TEF. Still think it a great company with a great future. Quite irritated we are big pushed out at such a low price.

Oddly Crest went private in 2007 just before the crisis an went public again in 2014 once thigs were settled. That worked out well for them.

All us long term holders are shell shocked. The longer the intention of the hold and the higher the percentage of our holdings as tef the more the shell shock.

I’ll be voting against with what I have left and will shift back from crest if we win.

Can’t blame management to recommend a great or even good offer nobody has given us a credible case that this (3.50) is a good deal for us. Would have been far better to have ridden out this 2 year dip in profits and political uncertainty. There was no shortage of cash to keep going, this is a sale of choice not necessity.

Thanks cyb

I’ve added a few inland and will be adding more

Like the stated ambition to get to 500 open market completions per year up from 278

Like the near london focus

yes I'd like to join your forum.

A temporary email is enclosed.
stephkhazaniblabaloo@gmail.com
Please send joining instructions.

I am now a TEF refugee. I was gong to hold TEF in my ISA for 15 to 20 years and let it form at least 1/3rd of my retirement income. Now I have to do something else. Quite irritated I am forced out at a price just below my average by-in price since I was stocking up in my ISA 2012 onwards. For all that risk and sacrifice all I've made is the dividend income. I was expecting after a dire 5 years SP wise we were about to get 5 good years.

UK banks look cheap but I am weary. They are not printing money as they used to and all around the world Banks have flat lined -even Goldmans and HSBC never mind the likes of the Germans. UK builders have risks but upside at these SP's. Whole oil and minerals extraction sector intrinsically risky as new technologies of extraction and new commercially viable discoveries due to new technologies of exploration come to bear. I put a tiny bit of money in Carbo ceramics which supply propants to the fracking industry (once you frack you need to shove something in to keep the crack open so the "tight" oil and gas can flow (Good propant worth 20% of a well cost so lots of margin if you have the IP) but it tanked for reasons I don't know. Tech very high priced. Renewables a growth area but lots of churn and risk.

I rather liken my bet on the London housing market pre Brexit as London as a global hub for business and financial services benefited by money being made somewhere in the world regardless of the country, technology or sector. It is a bit like supplying shovels, picks, pans and food during the gold rush. You make great money off all the miners regardless of whom in turn finds any gold. With TEF I was primed to make steady money off an overheated housing market that was the byproduct of the globalization of business and financial service elite companies and self perpetuating skills concentrations.

I really don't know where to go from here. Temporarily I am now mostly in Crest but as Crest is not trying hard to grow it has limits. Also I don't like the size of the non London weighting in the pipeline nor the tendency to develop in suburban locations that require a car trip to a local employer rather than a link to a central London bound rail station and thus London's deeper jobs market. TEF for the next 15 years was a near perfect fit for me.

Can't make AGM. Hope you or strictly will go and raise a few tough questions.

Was in central London for a few hours yesterday due to a missed connection. Wonderful city. Wish I could make a London play on the market. BKG just too low a yield. I liked TEF's yield. Not to hot and not too cold. I note Crest is disinvesting in London and only aiming for quite modest growth of 3 or 4% pa. SO not an exact fit for me but the best out there. The Crest 9.3% yield makes up for many flaws.

There is a chance of a counter offer from someone. Timing is very tight though -deliberately so. TEF senior staffers have their hands tied to help a rival bid now so it would have to be "hostile". I'd give it a 10% chance of a counter bid coming in.

Whole thing set up to benefit CBRE, and maybe senior TEF staffers, but not us. If interested in selling why not advertise that possibility more openly? In public TEF have been actively discouraging take over speculation. All the fingerprints of a sweetheart deal for CBRE.

For my money I am resigned to this and starting to transition out. I'll vote against this with whatever I have at the time but I don't hold out hope for a reversal.