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I’m truly baffled by the comments about the RNS lacking details which the company do not have. Can’t include any info on wire logging until it’s done. They had 2 choices- keep quiet until everything is done and provide a complete update or keep us informed along the way. Personally I’m very happy about them keeping us updated. So far they’ve been extremely confident about what they’ve found and soon we’ll all know the results which should be positive considering it’s a proven system + some bonus zones. Also the gross payzone is over 30% thicker than expected, so could result in much better than expected results.
Bit surprised as well, but might just be there's no-one to sign-off RNS from Government. They were going into Mengo last Wednesday so would definitely know results by now. If it was bad news it would have been released by now as they wouldn't have been able to not tell the market. So very confident we'll get a very nice RNS on Thursday. Didn't plan on topping up any more, but might be tempted today to add a few more as I didn't expect we'd be without any news or below 10p today.
It’s not a choice, if they’ve gone through Mengo it will be announced tomorrow. Can’t hold back price sensitive news unless they don’t have government sign-off. My view is pretty much 99.9% nailed on that we’ll get news tomorrow. Not sure if Mengo or license, but we’ll get something. I’d be surprised if not Mengo.
515k @ 8.5p just gone through
I wouldn’t worry too much about it. They would need £500k max by end of January for 103. So suspect they would sort it out around middle of January once they have initial flow rates for first two zones. That’s what they have to raise. Think additional funding for 104 will be dependent on what sort of arrangement they can get and what the SP is.
The whole approach to funding makes me even more confident about Mengo. They need to raise funds to complete 103, so waiting for Mengo results would be stupid and irresponsible unless you pretty much know what’s down there and see it as almost zero risk. That’s why I added another 300k after interview.
Great interview and definitely clarified ambiguity from Monday’s RNS. Personally the comment that stuck with me was “They owe us $10m in total, so not insignificant. Not an amount I’m prepared to leave on the table without getting something back for it.“
He could just have said we’ll get it back from 103 production as per contract, but chose to phrase it like that. Add in the “much bigger” comment and it sounds to me like they’ve done some sort of deal. My minds racing with excitement and not fear for once! ;-)
It's open until 12:30 on Monday and the 31st, so not many trading days left to announce a lot of news. Let's hope JBER go on holiday from Friday.
Been e-mailing with DS for the first time this morning and was surprised by the swift and open responses. I already mentioned earlier that he confirmed no funding deal has been done. Sounds like there’s probably going to be quite a few bits of news coming out before end of the year:
- Mengo drilling update
- He’s also looking to provide news on the license extension
- Update on 101 workover
- He also confirmed that he’ll be doing a podcast tomorrow
Anyone is welcome to e-mail him if they wanted to verify anything for themselves. Looks like games are still being played with the SP by some, but sounds like that might get more difficult over the next 2 weeks. I’m still slightly annoyed by RNS wording, but relaxed and happy to be holding for a lot longer.
Ok just had e-mail from DS confirming no funding has been arranged and rumours are BS.
fjones40, good to know if true. Hope that DS appreciates the importance of getting that message out officially if that is the plan.
Hope you're wrong as it would seriously contradict what they've stated publicly and also apparently said to Strongman this morning. In his interview 3 months ago (when SP was over 10p) DS stated he was disappointed with the SP and that it didn't reflect where the company was heading. So clearly thinks we should be higher than 10p. Yesterday's RNS stated "will also consider the issuance of further shares, but in each case only on terms and at a price which properly reflects the position and prospects for the Company."
So hopefully we'll get some clarity soon, but I'd be extremely annoyed with DS if he has done it between 6-7p. I accept funding is required - it's part of oil exploration, but there are ways of doing it without destroying the SP in the process.
Triumph2000 I'm a holder and believe in the company or wouldn't have invested, but don't blame anyone apart from DS for today's SP. He created the opportunity for people to spread fear and doubt with that RNS. There was no need to say anything about funding until he could say exactly how much and via what mechanics it would be raised. Couldn't believe he would be so naive. Obviously everyone will shout he's raising £5m at 5-6p - doesn't matter if it's true or not.
And what he was thinking going on about the rig. Sounded like a ranting old man. RNS is not the place for it and should have been more professional. So I'm annoyed at him for creating the mess.
That being said, I've taken the opportunity to add some more today as it's de-risked after yesterday. It's highly unlikely that R1/R2 won't perform as expected and Mengo should be fine as well. So looking forward to see what's behind door number 3 & 4.
Can't find anything that confirms if this is still the current incentive scheme. Anyone seen any updates to it?
"Management share options (15%, 20p exercise price) were granted at Initial Completion or joining at the 20p placing price and vest in three tranches once total oil production at Tilapia reaches certain production milestones:
1/3 on production of 1,000 bpd
1/3 on production of 2,500 bpd
1/3 on production of 5,000 bpd (in each case measured over a consecutive 30-day period)
Subject to achieving the minimum production targets set out above, vesting is one-third on date of grant, one-third on first anniversary of grant and one-third on second anniversary of grant.
The executives have agreed to defer 75% of their accrued but unpaid consultancy fees of £120,000 each against achieving increases in production.
25% of consultancy fees were paid on admission to AIM.
Remaining 75% deferred and paid in three tranches contingent on the company
achieving sustained increases in aggregate production to 500, 625 and 750 bpd
respectively.
Executives have also agreed that they will defer half of their remuneration if the oil price
is less than US$35/bbl and if the company is otherwise cash-flow constrained."
DM2000 - I think you might be correct about the Vanji. We’ve not heard anything about Friday’s meeting on license extension and today the surprise about needing more money for 103 drill. DS mentioned a few months ago that Congolese Government was very keen for someone to test the Vanji. Might have said we need to test Vanji to secure extension. Obviously pure speculation, but does make some sense to me.
It’s at 3:53 if you wanted to skip straight to it.
https://youtu.be/GtfmSHdRoUU
Unfortunately the vagueness around funding killed any chance of a decent recovery today. Not sure why that had to be included as the GM was already arranged. Would have been better received IMO if they only announced it after deciding on funding route and amount required. This has just created another opportunity to destroy sentiments on a day that should have restored some confidence and improve sentiment.
Am slightly baffled by the details of rig contractor issues. First time I’ve come across something like that. Not sure what he was trying to achieve, but managed to turn good news RNS into a head scratching one.
At least I’m much more confident on success going forward after all the issues. So currently Finncap value R1/R2 at around 6p as flow rates will be inline with the other 2 wells. This means Mengo at 60%+ COS and Djeno at 25% is valued at 1p. Definitely a very good risk/reward play despite DS.
No problem with people shorting, but hate naked shorting which doesn’t have to be disclosed and is still legal in the UK for some unexplained reason. US banned it, but our good old boys voted against banning it. MP/MM - which is more corrupt... tough call.
Thanks, I don’t normally filter people but made an exception for him after responding to his last post. Clearly proven himself to be a troll, complete idiot or both. None of which I have any desire to keep engaging with. On the plus side there’s suddenly a lot less repetitive posts on here. ;-)
Seriously starting to doubt you’re invested here or know anything about the company. “Cos where else would the cash be coming from ?”. Selling oil, you know that thing we do. We are already selling oil and have everything in place to do so. Once 103 comes online in either best or most likely scenarios we’ll be selling a lot more. Only difference being that I don’t believe most likely scenario will cover full cost of 104 in the drilling timeframe so will need some additional capital.
I'm still waiting on the 3.5p you predicted a few weeks ago. Once that happens I'll take you seriously.
The company has already confirmed that we'll be drilling 104 straight after 103 using the same rig. This saves time and significant mobilisation & de-mobilisation costs (over £1m). So makes perfect sense for them to ensure all paperwork is sorted out for additional funding if required. Can't see the rig sitting around waiting for us to get finances together after 103 is done we need to be ready to go, so can't see any issues with getting approval now.
Big question is if they will use the facility or not? Can't be sure, but personally I've gone with 3 scenarios around this:
Best case - R1/R2 & Mengo produce as expected and Djeno produces 2,000+ bopd. Under this scenario I can't see any reason to raise any additional capital.
Most likely (IMO) - R1/R2 & Mengo produce as expected and Djeno doesn't. I estimate under this scenario we'll need to raise a maximum of £2m additional capital, but MCAP should be well over £20m at this stage so less than 10% dilution to drill 104.
Worse case (don't want to really think about it) - Complete duster or just R1/R2 producing. Under this scenario we'll need the full £5.2m and MCAP would probably be around £5m so a 100%+ dilution and total nightmare. Highly unlikely IMO.
So voting yes:
- No delays on starting 104
- Reduces costs of 104
- less dilution as cheaper option
Voting no
- Delays 104 by at least 3 months
- Increases 104 costs by at least £1m
- Increases dilution as more expensive
Happy for other to offer suggestions, but I can't envisage a scenario where voting no puts us in a better position. Doesn't matter what you think of DS or if he, JB or someone else runs the company, the funding requirements for 104 is depended on 103 results. Getting approvals sorted out now is just good management.