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Why? Happens all the time. Here’s one of the last ones I saw...
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/news/market-news/market-news-detail/EML/13777491.html
Holy you know what!!! The bs being spouted today is unbelievable. Down 1.45% and suddenly ii’s are dumping because they had advanced warning of bad results. Firstly what is being suggested is called fraud, so be careful about what you write. Secondly if that was actually true, we’d be below 9p at a minimum. So if you truly believe company is committing fraud you should get out asap.
Seems like most are overlooking the fact that Mengo is the company maker, not Djeno. AAOG will be a much bigger company on Mengo alone. And we get to have a go at Djeno every time we drill a Mengo well. It’s not a hit or bust situation despite what some desperate, ill-informed derampers are spouting.
Tired of reading all the bs so will be starting my weekend early. Have a good one all and hopefully get some good news next week.
No, he tweeted that comment
https://twitter.com/mgrahamwood/status/1085997887857795074?s=21
Doc vs Malcy
Malcy describes DS as a man with great integrity and has a great team around him after meeting him.
Doc says he doesn’t trust DS, but yet he invested and encouraged his followers to do the same. Have no idea if he has met with DS.
Just finding it all rather amusing.
JBG can’t you read? Above list it states”As at 17 January 2019, the Company has been notified of the following interests in 3% or more of the issued ordinary share capital of the Company:”
Last time I checked owning 6m shares is below 3% so not on the list.
Thought he sounded quite positive overall and very complimentary about the team in his tweets, guess we’ll find out when he posts his blog. Think he’s finding it difficult as there is so many moving parts. Think funding is now sorted whatever happens with Djeno. If we don’t hit it, the full field development will be slower. Then again if government decides to pay us $10m owed it would speed things up.
Ultimately we can easily get to sustained production of 3,000bopd without Djeno but will obviously take a little bit longer. Think that’s why there’s been some large purchases lately- people with patience are loading up as they can see we’re already worth a lot more than 10p once full field development is complete. Add to that the added bonus of 5 or 6 free hits to try and hit Djeno. Hopefully we’ll only need one.
James, agreed you can discuss correct PE for ages and still be wrong. I’m in the ultra conservative side so use 7 for my own decision making when looking at risk/reward. Even at 7 without Djeno the argument is very compelling over medium to long term.
In one of the interviews last year DS confirmed they will only go for Vandji if they hit Djeno. And will only make the decision after hitting Djeno. Personally I think they will continue to Vandji if they hit Djeno as there will be tremendous pressure from government to continue.
Definitely a lot of potential here, just a few points to refine your estimate:
Think you forgot to convert $ to £ when calculating SP, so 30% overstated and share is 56%.
Then again your numbers are based on 1 well. Full production is 6-10 wells!
Long way to go, but good to keep in mind where this could go over time.
They actually added a few since December. Definitely not selling like some were suggesting yesterday.
Obviously you forgot about attacking me last year on UKOG BB when I politely asked you to tone down the ramping. But I will stop posting to you as I don’t want to drag the BB down. It’s a great day for all holders, so let’s just enjoy it.
PS: UKOG will come good. Just some temporary pain.
Correct Drewsky. No way will they waste $2m and a few months on de-mobilising and the re-mobilising the drill rig. They've already confirmed this in a previous interview.
Just been updating my targets as we approach Djeno. I've always found that it's good to have set targets before major news events as MM will play around with SP - doesn't make a difference if results are good or bad they will look to exploit it. So for me it's definitely not a time to make emotional decisions in response to SP movements. I've gone through the last broker forecasts and adjusted for additional shares, lower oil price, etc. Targets are based on unsuccessful Djeno and assumes flowrates for R1/R2 & Mengo are commercial (doesn't require much) with updated CPR confirming reserves are as expect. If downside risks below materialise I'd say 7p is lower target vs upside of 23p which offers great opportunities with current SP at 10p. I've also added some upside potential that would increase target SP above 23p on R1/R2 & Mengo alone.
Downside Risk:
CPR shows reserves less than expected (low risk)
Flowrates commercial, but less that 750bopd (low risk)
License doesn't get renewed (extremely low risk)
Upside Opportunities:
101/102 production increase to 400bopd (low probability)
103 producing over 1,000bopd (medium probability)
additional payzones discovered adds significant reserves in updated CPR (low probability)
acquire additional acreage with license renewal (medium probability)
I'm sure there's much more to add on both sides, but for me these are the major drivers. I'm pretty sure there will be a lot of short term SP volatility, but I'm focused on targets for next year and beyond. Obviously if Djeno comes in we can all ignore everything I've written as SP will be many multiples of current one. Exciting times ahead and very little downside buying in at these levels. Just need patience and focus on company performance, not SP performance.
Not at all by the looks of it. GBP is up, futures are up and US markets shrugged it off as non-event. Not that any of those would affect AIM. Lord knows what drives AIM movements on the short term.
Tiburn, I asked specifically about 103 as stopping that while drilling would have major impact on cashflow. He made it clear they want the cash coming in asap and be cashflow positive.
Just my opinion, but get the feeling he doesn’t want to go near a placing again so positive cashflow and proven reserves would help a lot with that. Although still annoyed about how the last one went down, I can understand they were between a rock and a hard place. Be completely open from start about extent of 103 cost overruns and place at 6 or 7p causing even more dilution or go the way they went and unintentionally hurt traders and/or other investors who can’t hold on long enough. I think in the long run they feel what they did was in best interest of all shareholders. Just to reiterate this is my opinion and not a quote from DS.
SNPC share dropping to 19% with new license, so not sure they’ll want to give anymore away. My guess is they’ll probably get more acreage in exchange for monies owed. I’m hoping that they will leave $3-4m to be recovered from 103 production revenue.
Well I got a reply from DS to my questions over the weekend and although not completely happy about it I can see where he’s coming from. So just added 280k and will sit back waiting on Djeno.
At least one concern was reduced by him regarding 104. They are currently engineering 104 in a way that won’t require suspension of production from other wells while drilling 104. So massive positive for me.
Agree, but also due to the fact that they might be converting at much higher price in February so would be insane for them to short now. Also the warrants carrot at 12p makes a higher SP more beneficial for them. So in their own interest not to kill the SP. Think PV built in as much protection as he could. Still don’t trust YA though. It has definitely giving others an opportunity to short and create the impression it’s YA. You could not have missed the group of doom mongers that turned up all at once last week. Have seen same names turn up on other shares talking them down and then disappearing once they’ made their pound of flesh. Some way to earn a living!
Have to agree with you on resolution, but just to clarify it’s nothing to do with the app. It’s the resolution of the Go. Then again what do people expect? Untethered, perfect resolution, seamless performance and all this for £169 on new technology? Dream on! Maybe in a year or two. For now you’ll have to be patient while technology improves and it will. With so many companies investing billions it won’t take that long.
There’s been a few derampers playing up the financing as some sort of indication of issues at Brockham. Personally I think it’s a sign of extreme confidence. Look at the placing conditions - can’t short and can’t convert for 30 days. Now the can’t short part probably shows some nativity by PV as these guys never play by the rules, but the second part is crucial hint as to their expectations for Brockham. Given an SP of around 12p at the time and knowing that conversion would take place AFTER Brockham results are out why would you not place at best fix price you can get at the time rather than convert in 30 days time when SP is below 5p due to poor results from Brockham? Unless of course you expect the SP to be much higher in 30 days time.
And as for why not wait for Brockham revenues to fund it - that’s very simple. The Brockham revenues are required to develop 6 well programme. My suspicions are that Cuadrilla are probably pushing for Balcombe to get going sooner rather than later. Either way, the format, conditions of funding and everything we’ve heard from site makes me extremely confident that everything is going exactly to plan. So let the shorters have their fun for the moment because the more they short, the harder it will bounce once news drops. GLA