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Region really starting to hot up after SRI agrees farm-in with Rio. Another bit of great news from the region.
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200803/pdf/44l3v2jyn8yqyx.pdf
Old article but nice map of all the players in the region. Useful when other start releasing results to see how it relates to GGP land.
https://www.samso.com.au/post/paterson-range-the-forgotten-mineral-wealth-of-the-proterozoic-paterson-orogen-insights
Well played. Risk management is very important part of successful investing. GGP looks amazing, but nothing is ever guaranteed as you unfortunately found out with SXX.
MM playing their normal games, but as more discoveries are made in Patterson region it will lead to a lot more money flowing into the area.
More good news from the region!
https://twitter.com/artemisresource/status/1287997969988554758?s=21
You can look at ARV on ASX. Just at the start of their journey drilling next door. Can buy them through CMC.
https://twitter.com/artemisresource/status/1285843579911450625?s=21
Very good webinar and worth watching when it gets put up online. Alistair was very bullish on prospects for everyone in the region. Mentioned some very high numbers in relation to what GGP’s share could be worth. Called it the best tier 1 prospect in the world. Some really exciting times ahead.
There’s a lot of exploration going on in WA at the moment. There’s been a massive nickel discovery in the Fraser Range on top of the gold discoveries all over the place. Getting hold of a drill rig is starting to become the problem as a lot of the big mining companies like Rio & BHP outsource quite a lot of drilling.
Agree, the distance away was putting me off. Really keen on ARV as it’s a lot closer. All around Haverion. They’re drilling in July so might be worth keeping an eye on.
There’s been numerous cases in the news about it over last few weeks:
https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/amp.smh.com.au/national/opera-singer-among-those-hit-by-covid-19-blood-clot-mystery-20200428-p54nts.html
LB28,
I don’t trust them either, but can’t see how they could make money from short selling if shares are issued at 5.2p. If VWAP is below 5.93p they handover less than 100% of monthly cash but also get less shares at 5.2p.
If you can think of a way to get round it I’d love to know as I’m stumped at the moment.
Had to go through it a few times as it’s more complicated than anything I’ve seen on AIM before. Looks like a good deal for everyone, but risky one for AAOG. No real risk of death spiral as all shares are issued at 5.2p. Biggest risk is not getting enough cash from deal if sp remains well below 5.2p so with that in mind they must be confident of sp north of 5.2p - let’s hope they’re right.
Also not much chance of manipulating the sp with a VWAP of 30days. So pretty much as good as they could have done under the circumstances. Still not restored my faith in DS, but at least gives me some hope. Might even add a few more at these levels.
Still struggling to believe that Riverfort and YA II signed up to a deal where the only way of making extra money is if the share price rises. Completely against their normal way of business which makes me slightly uneasy. Just don’t trust them, but haven’t found another angle they could use to milk it apart from SP going up.
How on earth can anyone seriously think the financing deal will be a death spiral? The company CANNOT issue shares below 5p. So impossible to have death spiral at these levels. SP probably won’t move much until drilling starts again, but we won’t be in a death spiral situation again.
You do realise they can’t issue shares below 5p, which pretty much makes your post pointless and very uninformed.
PE of around 20 is a good starting point. Overheads should stay pretty stable- assuming growth coming from DSM. So for each 1p in SP you’d need £1m turnover (maybe a little more initially as overheads will still be a large proportion.) So for 3-10p you’d need turnover in region of £3-10m. Not impossible, but let’s get to breaking even first before talking about how high profits can go.
II’s paid 16p last year and have a significant holding. They won’t approve buyout at a loss. If FB then will be compulsory buyout, which means 90% approval required.
Unless you're protecting a short. Shorts sometimes short aggressively into good news to create exit opportunity for entire position - especially if caught by surprise.
Doesn't really matter, holding until FB offer comes in... or my target SP is reached... whichever comes first.
Starting to look more and more like FB will just buy MVR at some point this year.
I think they must be very confident of what's happening at Brockham as PV has pretty much bet his future on the results with the Balcombe financing arrangement. He could have done a placing at 10-11p; or done the convertible loan without the 30 days delay clause. He chose not to and as such exposed ANGS shareholders to possible conversion at 3-4p in early Feb if Brockham results are bad.
I can't imagine he'd be that stupid, even if he didn't care about keeping his job he still holds a significant amount of shares and would kill his own holding.
So although things might appear to have gone very quiet, I can't imaging that they would have gambled on the results. That would just be beyond stupid, so I'm just ignoring the noise and waiting for the results which I'm still confident will be great.
Good lord can’t believe this has gone on so long!!! JBG I’ll make it simple for you. The buyer can’t delay declaring the trade for more than 24hrs. Usually won’t even be allowed to leave it until next day unless special circumstances. The SP hasn’t been above 10.6p in the last 3 trading days, so doesn’t matter when it was placed in that time, it was completed today and it’s a buy. Doesn’t matter how much that disappoints you. Unless of course you are suggesting those generous MMs have decided to sell 2.2m shares at a loss?
If you don’t believe anything I’ve said, you can read through it yourself.
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/traders-and-brokers/rules-regulations/rules-lse.pdf
COS before we started was Geo 70%x Reservoir 80%x Seal 90%x Charge 50% = 25%. Based on results so far I’d say COS has increased to roughly 40% - for 103. Think it will increase significantly for 104 onwards. Personally I think it’s probably north of 80% that we’ll hit it during one of the Mengo drills.
Agree with Bonkers comment on risk/reward profile. Possible 25-30% downside (probably temporary) vs 250%+ upside. That’s the sort of profile I like.