Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Exactly Baits, took UKOG 3 weeks to issue initial RNS on Portland. For some reason things are supposed to take less time at Brockham. Or maybe some just have alterior motives.
Still can’t believe how many people can’t understand/ accept it’s not ANGS vs UKOG. Both succeed or fail together.
Northman1, the £2m wasn't for Balcombe. My gut feel is that Cuadrilla have pushed to get Balcombe going asap after getting the additional analysis of test results back. Just my own speculation, but would explain rush for financing at this stage.
The £2m from November needs to stay in accounts while applications are going in to support it. Watch Vonk interview from November where he explains it.
Looks like the morning shift is over and midday team has arrived.
What a difference 19hrs makes!! Yesterday at 3pm you stated:
"Stick to ANGS and whats happening on site would be my advice. I'm here because I liked the smell of oil in the tanker and for the potential combined with the numbers that came off Balcombe. Todays decline I suspect was caused by your day traders on here selling for a cheaper re-entry on the rig being down. That however I have as a good sign and possible pre-cursor to you know what.
All for 1 and 1 for all and if it gets to what I think is fair cheaper I may buy some more.
Just imo"
BTW, dilution is less than 5% so not really an issue and not happening until Feb.
Or maybe even simpler explanation is that Lenigas and Tidswell are mates. If you don't know that, you've not done any research.
"For each Advance, following an initial period of 30 days, Noteholders may, from time to time and in their absolute discretion, convert the principal outstanding into new Shares at the lower of the established Fixed or Variable Conversion Price. The Fixed Conversion Price is set at 150% of the 5 day VWAP of the Shares on the date preceding the Advance. The Variable Conversion Price is set at 92.5% of the average of the three lowest daily VWAPs in respect of Shares during the 10 trading days immediately preceding the date of the notice of conversion by Noteholders."
So even if drawdown was yesterday, they wouldn't be able to convert until 9 February at the earliest, by which time initial results from Brockham will be known.
Even if they converted at 8p, the additional shares would be less than 5% of the company. Yet people are selling at 20% loss... and ignoring the great news about Balcombe. I added 141k at 9p and will now wait for Brockham production to start.
It's only £3m, so less than 10% of mcap. A pain, but lots of the initial shares have already been forward sold as we've seen over last few days.
I'm much more interested in purpose for funds - developing Balcombe. That's great news after a long period of silence.
As for the HSBC shenanigans, can't see them having the votes to do anything. Just a nuisance.
Would be nice, but considering comments they made about Sandabel at the start I won't be holding my breath. My other concern is that they can issue a further 44m shares. So I've e-mailed DS regarding my concerns about financing for 101 and 104. Will see what - if any - response I get.
Separate question that someone might be able to answer - we had to suspend production from 101 while drilling 103. Will we have to do the same with 103 while drilling 104? Makes a massive difference to time frame and funding for 104.
I'll start with the positives. Assets still there and looking better than expected. My personal view is that COS of Djeno has improved to above 50%. Target price has to be significantly reduced, but still lots of potential upside and normally would be a no-brainer for me as I expected placing and it's part of the exploration game. Despite this I still didn't pull the trigger on buying any below 10p.
The negatives in my view are:
- Still a lack of clarity around the finances
- What about costs for 101 upgrade? Is that going to be additional or is it included somewhere?
- And 104? I would have assumed a £6m raise would cover at least half of those costs, but apparently it covers none of it.
- Not stated, but assume missing £500k is FinnCapp fee?
But the main two things that made me seriously stop and think are:
- Why no warning to shareholders at ANY POINT that we're over 90% overspent? They always downplayed extra costs as minor.
- Personally I feel they lied to shareholders. RNS on 30 Nov stated:
"The Company is therefore seeking a general authority to allow the directors to allot equity or other securities for cash up to an aggregate nominal amount of £5,221,000 without first offering them to existing shareholders. This authority is intended to provide the directors the flexibility to raise further capital in the most expedient manner possible, should the need or opportunity arise.
There is no certainty that the directors will use this authority and there is no intention currently to do so. Moreover, there is no certainty that any eventual financing of the Company will involve the issuance of equity at all."
They requested authority and would definitely have known at that stage that cost overruns were significant, yet kept quiet.
So I'm torn... definitely lots of potential upside here, no doubt about that - but can I continue to invest in a company where I don't trust the man in charge??? Answers on a post card.
At least with so many placing shares to clear I can take a few days to decide as I'll probably be able to buy more below 10p next week.
I have to admit I’m shocked. Can’t believe how much overrun on 103 is. Assumed we would have most of funds left for starting 104. Not sure what this means for 104 start.
Probably just last of the placing shares being dumped. They need to get out before any results from Brockham are out. There business model doesn’t involve any risk, so expect them to dump until all gone. Definitely accelerated over last few days. Could be a nice bounce once cleared. Exactly the same happened on AAOG
That depends on what they find, but anything from £100-300m. With Djeno success and increased acreage I can easily see this above £500m, but that’s a long way off and will need a fair bit of skill and luck. But for me a no brainer at 11p. Possible downside of 3-4p max if flow rates not optimal vs massive upside potential. This is not a lottery, but a great risk/reward play. Just need to be patient and wait for dust to settle. Placings can sometimes be a great opportunity as they only care about 10-15% short term gain.
Agree that it could definitely be a lot more than £100m in time, but based on R1/R2 and Mengo along probably £60-70m max - which is still great compared to where we are now. And we’ll go after Djeno again with 104 so multiple chances of hitting it. Still lots of info to come on Mengo which might surprise us, but for now I’m happy that it still provides a great risk-reward opportunity.
Nothing confirmed officially at the moment, but does look like £5.5m was raised @ 10p. As mentioned in my previous post I was surprised they went for full amount, but does suggest they anticipate a delay until 103 revenue starts flowing in. This to me is very positive, so not completely unhappy and unloading of placing shares will provide a good opportunity to add more. Only negative is obviously the increased number of shares, but that is part of this game. On the plus side “better than expected” results so far will hopefully offset some of this.
As for the price of 10p, I think they did rather well on that considering the amount raise vs mcap at the time. We closed at 16p on Friday with mcap of £28m - so pretty much asked for 20% of our mcap. After placing we’ll have 233m shares in issue. Based on Friday’s mcap of £28m it works out to 12p a share. So discount is very minor in reality.
Moving onto Djeno my view is we’re around 50% COS now after first two zones were hit and geology was confirmed. Looking forward to a great year for AAOG and hopefully the last time we use the word placing.
Thought of that, but you’d think they’ll use $10m owed to us for that.
Interesting day, thought there would be a pull back, but this was way over the top. Anyway on to topic at hand. Maybe just grasping at straws, but as much as I despise TW his inside info is usually correct. Doesn’t make him any less of a disgusting human being taking pleasure in other people’s suffering.
From my conversations with DS the placing was only going to be small - less than £1m, possibly less than £500k. So what has changed to require £4m? Guess it could be poor flow rates, but that sounds highly unlikely. Only other reason I could come up with is a delay in revenue streams coming online. Which to me says they now see Djeno as extremely likely- probably over 70-80% COS, which would mean delay to everything and additional costs as they’d be drilling Vandji and upgrading facilities. Otherwise it just doesn’t make sense or rumour is BS
GGPM, think they just forgot to update it. Then again like others have said 18p will do.
Nice 2.6m delayed trade at 12.09p from yesterday just popped up
Yep, got to thank trolls... managed to add more at 11.6p. Very unexpected surprise.